How consequential is policy consequentiality? Evidence from online discrete choice experiment with ornamental plants

Stated preference surveys often employ policy consequentiality scripts to examine respondents’ concern for the policy in question and their belief in the impact of their responses on the provision of the respective good. In this study, we used an online choice experiment to investigate how perceptions of policy consequentiality influence individual preferences regarding ornamental plants cultivated with or without neonicotinoid insecticides. The role of policy consequentiality was examined between the control and treatment group and by levels of ex-post perceived consequentiality groups. Our findings indicate limited support for the notion that ex-ante consequentiality treatment mitigates hypothetical bias and choices to opt out. However, participants exhibiting higher levels of ex-post consequentiality perceptions displayed a reduced likelihood of opting out compared to those with lower levels. Furthermore, we found a sharp distinction in plant choice outcomes and elicited willingness-to-pay (WTP) between those who believed their responses were consequential and those who did not, in line with the predictions of the knife-edge effects. In contrast, participants attributing some degree of consequentiality to the survey results exhibited comparable behavior. These results suggested that the effects of policy consequentiality on consumer choices and WTP can be mixed in choice experiments involving private goods.