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Bad news travels fast: Extreme rainfall, migration networks, and migration

Author

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  • Lyu, Zhuoyang
  • Li, Zhengsheng
  • Yu, Li
  • Jiang, Yue

Abstract

This paper investigates the impact of extreme rainfall in destination cities on immigration flows. Using comprehensive migration data from population censuses and detailed weather information from 288 Chinese cities between 2000 and 2010, we find that extreme rainfall significantly reduces immigration. For every additional week of extreme rainfall in a city, the immigration rate decreases by 0.105 percentage points. We identify two key mechanisms through which extreme rainfall affects migration: heightened uncertainty in firm operations leading to reduced employment, and the role of migration networks in conveying negative information about destination conditions. Our heterogeneity analysis reveals that young adults, individuals with middle school education, rural hukou holders, and inter-regional migrants are most sensitive to extreme rainfall shocks. Furthermore, cities with higher infrastructure investment better mitigate the negative effects of extreme rainfall, demonstrating how adaptive measures can reduce climate impacts on migration. These findings have important implications for urban planning and regional development policies in the context of increasing climate change challenges.

Suggested Citation

  • Lyu, Zhuoyang & Li, Zhengsheng & Yu, Li & Jiang, Yue, 2025. "Bad news travels fast: Extreme rainfall, migration networks, and migration," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:80:y:2025:i:c:s027553192500368x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ribaf.2025.103112
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness

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