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How past perceived portfolio returns affect financial behaviors—The underlying psychological mechanism

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  • Khan, Mohammad Tariqul Islam
  • Tan, Siow-Hooi
  • Chong, Lee-Lee

Abstract

The study proposes and tests the underlying psychological mechanisms on how investors’ past perceived portfolio returns affect their trading and risk taking, and if these psychological mechanisms are significant mediators. Using a covariance based structural equation modeling and multiple mediation tests with a dataset of Malaysian retail investors, the results show that: (a) In line with the naïve reinforcement learning, hot-hand fallacy and representativeness heuristics, investors’ excessive extrapolation of past perceived portfolio returns causes them to display optimism, overconfidence and risky attitude; (b) these psychological biases, in turn, lead to portfolio turnover, trading intention, risky share holding and willingness of risk taking; and (c) overconfidence, optimism and risk attitude emerged as multiple mediators. The results lead to the conclusion that the presence of underlying biases deteriorates financial behaviors.

Suggested Citation

  • Khan, Mohammad Tariqul Islam & Tan, Siow-Hooi & Chong, Lee-Lee, 2017. "How past perceived portfolio returns affect financial behaviors—The underlying psychological mechanism," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 1478-1488.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:42:y:2017:i:c:p:1478-1488
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ribaf.2017.07.088
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    2. Tan, Siow-Hooi & Lai, Ming-Ming & Tey, Eng-Xin & Chong, Lee-Lee, 2020. "Testing the performance of technical analysis and sentiment-TAR trading rules in the Malaysian stock market," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Past perceived portfolio returns; Psychological biases; Malaysia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G02 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Behavioral Finance: Underlying Principles

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