IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/respol/v50y2021i7s0048733321000780.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Transformational complexity, systemic complexity and economic development

Author

Listed:
  • Natera, Jose Miguel
  • Castellacci, Fulvio

Abstract

Economic development is a multi-dimensional and co-evolutionary process, in which several factors interact with each other in a complex manner. The paper develops two new notions of economic complexity based on the study of interactions between different development factors. (1) Transformational complexity denotes a country's pace of structural transformations over time, arguing that an economy is more complex if a large number of factors are able to drive the system out-of-equilibrium and towards new growth paths. (2) Systemic complexity represents a country's overall density of causal relationships that link together its development factors, based on the idea that an economy is more complex if its growth path is simultaneously driven by several co-evolving factors. We build up a system dynamics model that develops these ideas, and then test its predictions using time series analysis. Making use of the Johansen cointegration approach, and using annual time series data for the period 1970-2015, we apply the new notions of complexity to the study of economic development for 134 countries. The results show that transformational complexity is positively correlated with GDP per capita growth during the period, and that systemic complexity is positively correlated with the level of GDP per capita at the end of the time span. Our results suggest that there may be different paths to achieve greater complexity and economic growth, depending on the core set of capabilities that each national system has, and that it is able to develop over time.

Suggested Citation

  • Natera, Jose Miguel & Castellacci, Fulvio, 2021. "Transformational complexity, systemic complexity and economic development," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(7).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:respol:v:50:y:2021:i:7:s0048733321000780
    DOI: 10.1016/j.respol.2021.104275
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048733321000780
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.respol.2021.104275?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Papageorgiou, Chris, 2002. "Trade as a threshold variable for multiple regimes," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 85-91, September.
    2. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    3. Durlauf, Steven N. & Johnson, Paul A. & Temple, Jonathan R.W., 2005. "Growth Econometrics," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.),Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 8, pages 555-677, Elsevier.
    4. Christopher A. Pissarides & Marie Ange Veganzones-Varoudakis, 2006. "Labor Markets and Economic Growth in the MENA Region," Contributions to Economic Analysis, in: Explaining Growth in the Middle East, pages 137-157, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    5. Cesar A. Hidalgo & Ricardo Hausmann, 2009. "The Building Blocks of Economic Complexity," Papers 0909.3890, arXiv.org.
    6. Alessandra Colombelli & Nick von Tunzelmann, 2011. "The Persistence of Innovation and Path Dependence," Chapters, in: Cristiano Antonelli (ed.), Handbook on the Economic Complexity of Technological Change, chapter 4, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    7. Halbert White & Xun Lu, 2010. "Granger Causality and Dynamic Structural Systems," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 8(2), pages 193-243, spring.
    8. Giuseppe De Luca & Jan R. Magnus, 2011. "Bayesian model averaging and weighted-average least squares: Equivariance, stability, and numerical issues," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 11(4), pages 518-544, December.
    9. Howitt, Peter & Mayer-Foulkes, David, 2005. "R&D, Implementation, and Stagnation: A Schumpeterian Theory of Convergence Clubs," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(1), pages 147-177, February.
    10. Fulvio Castellacci & José Miguel Natera, 2011. "A new panel dataset for cross-country analyses of national systems, growth and development (CANA)," Working Papers del Instituto Complutense de Estudios Internacionales 1105, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Instituto Complutense de Estudios Internacionales.
    11. Steven N. Durlauf, 1993. "Nonergodic Economic Growth," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 60(2), pages 349-366.
    12. Jonathan Temple, 2005. "Dual Economy Models: A Primer For Growth Economists," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 73(4), pages 435-478, July.
    13. Castellacci, Fulvio & Archibugi, Daniele, 2008. "The technology clubs: The distribution of knowledge across nations," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 1659-1673, December.
    14. Hausmann, Ricardo & Hidalgo, Cesar, 2014. "The Atlas of Economic Complexity: Mapping Paths to Prosperity," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262525429, April.
    15. Fulvio Castellacci, 2007. "Evolutionary And New Growth Theories. Are They Converging?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(3), pages 585-627, July.
    16. Galor, Oded, 2005. "From Stagnation to Growth: Unified Growth Theory," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 4, pages 171-293, Elsevier.
    17. Hartmann, Dominik & Guevara, Miguel R. & Jara-Figueroa, Cristian & Aristarán, Manuel & Hidalgo, César A., 2017. "Linking Economic Complexity, Institutions, and Income Inequality," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 75-93.
    18. Pierre-Alexandre Balland & David Rigby, 2017. "The Geography of Complex Knowledge," Economic Geography, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 93(1), pages 1-23, January.
    19. Daron Acemoglu & Philippe Aghion & Fabrizio Zilibotti, 2006. "Distance to Frontier, Selection, and Economic Growth," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 4(1), pages 37-74, March.
    20. Hildegunn Stokke, 2004. "Technology adoption and multiple growth paths: An intertemporal general equilibrium analysis of the catch-up process in Thailand," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 140(1), pages 80-109, March.
    21. Ricardo Hausmann & César Hidalgo, 2011. "The network structure of economic output," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 309-342, December.
    22. Castellacci, Fulvio & Natera, Jose Miguel, 2013. "The dynamics of national innovation systems: A panel cointegration analysis of the coevolution between innovative capability and absorptive capacity," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 579-594.
    23. Fagerberg, Jan & Srholec, Martin, 2008. "National innovation systems, capabilities and economic development," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(9), pages 1417-1435, October.
    24. John Foster & Werner Hölzl (ed.), 2004. "Applied Evolutionary Economics and Complex Systems," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 3061.
    25. Castellacci, Fulvio, 2018. "Co-evolutionary growth: A system dynamics model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 272-287.
    26. C. A. Hidalgo & B. Klinger & A. -L. Barabasi & R. Hausmann, 2007. "The Product Space Conditions the Development of Nations," Papers 0708.2090, arXiv.org.
    27. Fulvio Castellacci, 2011. "Closing the Technology Gap?," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(1), pages 180-197, February.
    28. Kelly, Morgan, 2001. "Linkages, Thresholds, and Development," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 39-53, March.
    29. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    30. Granger, C. W. J., 1988. "Some recent development in a concept of causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1-2), pages 199-211.
    31. Cristiano Antonelli (ed.), 2011. "Handbook on the Economic Complexity of Technological Change," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 13391.
    32. Peter Howitt, 2000. "Endogenous Growth and Cross-Country Income Differences," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 829-846, September.
    33. Verónica Robert & Gabriel Yoguel, 2011. "The Complex Dynamics of Economic Development," Chapters, in: Cristiano Antonelli (ed.), Handbook on the Economic Complexity of Technological Change, chapter 17, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    34. Jonathan R. W. Temple, 2005. "Growth and Wage Inequality in a Dual Economy," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(2), pages 145-169, April.
    35. Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), 2005. "Handbook of Economic Growth," Handbook of Economic Growth, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 1, number 1.
    36. Felipe, Jesus & Kumar, Utsav & Abdon, Arnelyn & Bacate, Marife, 2012. "Product complexity and economic development," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 36-68.
    37. Cristiano Antonelli, 2011. "The Economic Complexity of Technological Change: Knowledge Interaction and Path Dependence," Chapters, in: Cristiano Antonelli (ed.), Handbook on the Economic Complexity of Technological Change, chapter 1, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    38. Castellacci, Fulvio & Natera, Jose Miguel, 2016. "Innovation, absorptive capacity and growth heterogeneity: Development paths in Latin America 1970–2010," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 27-42.
    39. Varsakelis, Nikos C., 2006. "Education, political institutions and innovative activity: A cross-country empirical investigation," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(7), pages 1083-1090, September.
    40. Verónica Robert & Gabriel Yoguel & Octavio Lerena, 2017. "The ontology of complexity and the neo-Schumpeterian evolutionary theory of economic change," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 27(4), pages 761-793, September.
    41. Costantini, Valeria & Martini, Chiara, 2010. "The causality between energy consumption and economic growth: A multi-sectoral analysis using non-stationary cointegrated panel data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 591-603, May.
    42. J. Stanley Metcalfe & John Foster (ed.), 2004. "Evolution and Economic Complexity," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 3216.
    43. Tacchella, A. & Cristelli, M. & Caldarelli, G. & Gabrielli, A. & Pietronero, L., 2013. "Economic complexity: Conceptual grounding of a new metrics for global competitiveness," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 1683-1691.
    44. Costas Azariadis & Allan Drazen, 1990. "Threshold Externalities in Economic Development," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 105(2), pages 501-526.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Chatzistamoulou, Nikos & Kounetas, Kostas & Tsekouras, Kostas, 2022. "Technological hierarchies and learning: Spillovers, complexity, relatedness, and the moderating role of absorptive capacity," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Castellacci, Fulvio & Natera, Jose Miguel, 2013. "The dynamics of national innovation systems: A panel cointegration analysis of the coevolution between innovative capability and absorptive capacity," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 579-594.
    2. Castellacci, Fulvio, 2008. "Technology clubs, technology gaps and growth trajectories," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 301-314, December.
    3. Dosi, Giovanni & Roventini, Andrea & Russo, Emanuele, 2019. "Endogenous growth and global divergence in a multi-country agent-based model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 101-129.
    4. Castellacci, Fulvio & Natera, Jose Miguel, 2016. "Innovation, absorptive capacity and growth heterogeneity: Development paths in Latin America 1970–2010," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 27-42.
    5. Walheer, Barnabé, 2021. "Labor productivity and technology heterogeneity," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    6. Balland, Pierre-Alexandre & Broekel, Tom & Diodato, Dario & Giuliani, Elisa & Hausmann, Ricardo & O'Clery, Neave & Rigby, David, 2022. "Reprint of The new paradigm of economic complexity," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(8).
    7. Fulvio Castellacci, 2011. "Theoretical Models of Heterogeneity, Growth and Competitiveness: Insights from the Mainstream and Evolutionary Economics Paradigms," Chapters, in: Miroslav N. Jovanović (ed.), International Handbook on the Economics of Integration, Volume II, chapter 5, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    8. Antonios Garas & Sophie Guthmuller & Athanasios Lapatinas, 2021. "The development of nations conditions the disease space," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(1), pages 1-35, January.
    9. repec:dgr:rugggd:gd-118 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Vries, Gaaitzen J. de & Los, Bart & Castellacci, Fulvio, 2010. "Sectoral Productivity Trends:Convergence Islands in Oceans of Divergence," GGDC Research Memorandum GD-118, Groningen Growth and Development Centre, University of Groningen.
    11. Balland, Pierre-Alexandre & Broekel, Tom & Diodato, Dario & Giuliani, Elisa & Hausmann, Ricardo & O'Clery, Neave & Rigby, David, 2022. "The new paradigm of economic complexity," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(3).
    12. Dutrénit, Gabriela & Natera, José Miguel & Puchet Anyul, Martín & Vera-Cruz, Alexandre O., 2019. "Development profiles and accumulation of technological capabilities in Latin America," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 396-412.
    13. Hidalgo, César A., 2023. "The policy implications of economic complexity," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(9).
    14. Castellacci, Fulvio, 2018. "Co-evolutionary growth: A system dynamics model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 272-287.
    15. Trung V. Vu, 2022. "Does institutional quality foster economic complexity? The fundamental drivers of productive capabilities," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(3), pages 1571-1604, September.
    16. Walheer, Barnabé, 2023. "Meta-frontier and technology switchers: A nonparametric approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 305(1), pages 463-474.
    17. Zoran Utkovski & Melanie F Pradier & Viktor Stojkoski & Fernando Perez-Cruz & Ljupco Kocarev, 2018. "Economic complexity unfolded: Interpretable model for the productive structure of economies," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(8), pages 1-24, August.
    18. Fulvio Castellacci & Bart Los & Gaaitzen Vries, 2014. "Sectoral productivity trends: convergence islands in oceans of non-convergence," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 24(5), pages 983-1007, November.
    19. Naima Chrid & Sami Saafi & Mohamed Chakroun, 2021. "Export Upgrading and Economic Growth: a Panel Cointegration and Causality Analysis," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 12(2), pages 811-841, June.
    20. Olimpia Neagu, 2019. "The Link between Economic Complexity and Carbon Emissions in the European Union Countries: A Model Based on the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(17), pages 1-27, August.
    21. Vu, Trung V., 2020. "Economic complexity and health outcomes: A global perspective," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 265(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:respol:v:50:y:2021:i:7:s0048733321000780. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/respol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.