Voting with their feet: Relative economic conditions and state migration patterns
Over the past decade, state and local policymakers and business leaders across the U.S. have expressed concern regarding the ability to attract and retain skilled workers, given the economic climate of their states compared with other parts of the nation. Examining the factors underlying state-level migration trends is important to determine what role, if any, public policy might play in addressing their potential impact on local labor supply. Using data from the Internal Revenue Service for each of the 48 states in the continental United States from 1977 through 2006, this paper examines the role of three economic factors--namely labor market conditions, per capita incomes, and housing affordability--in determining domestic state-to-state migration flows. Estimates from a logistic model of out-migration show that while all three measures of relative economic conditions are significant determinants of migration, the magnitude of their impact varies and has changed considerably over time. For example, the importance of per capita income as a determining factor has fallen considerably since the late 1970s, while that of housing affordability has risen. Interestingly, the role of labor market conditions--while significant throughout the entire 30-year period--was most prominent in the late 1980s and early 1990s. Estimates from the model are used to forecast migration for 2009 for selected states. The results from this exercise are surprisingly accurate when compared to actual state migration patterns for that year.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Paul S. Davies & Michael J. Greenwood & Haizheng Li, 2001. "A Conditional Logit Approach to U.S. State-to-State Migration," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(2), pages 337-360.
- Jon Bakija & Joel Slemrod, 2004.
"Do the Rich Flee from High State Taxes? Evidence from Federal Estate Tax Returns,"
NBER Working Papers
10645, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jon Bakija & Joel Slemrod, 2004. "Do the Rich Flee from High State Taxes? Evidence from Federal Estate Tax Returns," Department of Economics Working Papers 2004-12, Department of Economics, Williams College.
- Kaestner, Robert & Kaushal, Neeraj & Van Ryzin, Gregg, 2003.
"Migration consequences of welfare reform,"
Journal of Urban Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 357-376, May.
- Jennifer Hunt, 2004.
"Are Migrants More Skilled than Non-Migrants? Repeat, Return and Same-Employer Migrants,"
NBER Working Papers
10633, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jennifer Hunt, 2004. "Are migrants more skilled than non-migrants? Repeat, return, and same-employer migrants," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 37(4), pages 830-849, November.
- Jennifer Hunt, 2004. "Are Migrants More Skilled than Non-Migrants?: Repeat, Return and Same-Employer Migrants," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 422, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Alicia Sasser & Bo Zhao & Darcy Rollins & Robert Tannenwald, 2006. "The lack of affordable housing in New England: how big a problem?: why is it growing?: what are we doing about it?," New England Public Policy Center Working Paper 06-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
- Gabriel, Stuart A. & Shack-Marquez, Janice & Wascher, William L., 1992.
"Regional house-price dispersion and interregional migration,"
Journal of Housing Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 235-256, September.
- Stuart A. Gabriel & Janice Shack-Marquez & William L. Wascher, 1990. "Regional house price dispersion and interregional migration," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov.
- Stuart A. Gabriel & Janice Shack-Marquez & William L. Wascher, 1991. "Regional house-price dispersion and interregional migration," Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section 122, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Borjas, George J. & Bronars, Stephen G. & Trejo, Stephen J., 1992.
"Self-selection and internal migration in the United States,"
Journal of Urban Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 159-185, September.
- George J. Borjas & Stephen G. Bronars & Stephen J. Trejo, 1992. "Self-Selection and Internal Migration in the United States," NBER Working Papers 4002, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Greenwood, Michael J, 1975. "Research on Internal Migration in the United States: A Survey," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 397-433, June.
- Joseph Gyourko & Christopher Mayer & Todd Sinai, 2006.
NBER Working Papers
12355, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Mueser Peter R. & Graves Philip E., 1995. "Examining the Role of Economic Opportunity and Amenities in Explaining Population Redistribution," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 176-200, March.
- Dora L. Costa & Matthew E. Kahn, 2000.
"Power Couples: Changes In The Locational Choice Of The College Educated, 1940-1990,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
MIT Press, vol. 115(4), pages 1287-1315, November.
- Dora L. Costa & Matthew E. Kahn, 1999. "Power Couples: Changes in the Locational Choice of the College Educated, 1940-1990," NBER Working Papers 7109, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Roback, Jennifer, 1982. "Wages, Rents, and the Quality of Life," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(6), pages 1257-78, December.
- Farnham, Martin & Sevak, Purvi, 2006. "State fiscal institutions and empty-nest migration: Are Tiebout voters hobbled?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(3), pages 407-427, February.
- Katherine Baicker, 2001. "The Spillover Effects of State Spending," NBER Working Papers 8383, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Vanderkamp, John, 1971. "Migration Flows, Their Determinants and the Effects of Return Migration," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(5), pages 1012-31, Sept.-Oct.
- Larry Long & Kristin Hansen, 1975. "Trends in return migration to the south," Demography, Springer, vol. 12(4), pages 601-614, November.
- Greenwood, Michael J. & Hunt, Gary L., 1989. "Jobs versus amenities in the analysis of metropolitan migration," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 1-16, January.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:regeco:v:40:y:2010:i:2-3:p:122-135. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.