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The equity premium and the disconnect between uncertainty and volatility: A global perspective

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  • Fernandes, Marcelo
  • Paye, Bradley
  • Roma, Carolina Magda da Silva

Abstract

We construct measures of the time-varying degree of disconnection between uncertainty and volatility for various international equity markets. We show that a strong global component drives the disconnect processes across countries. Building upon prior work focused on the US equity market, we provide an international perspective that confirms and strengthens evidence linking time-variation in the equity premium with uncertainty. Predictability appears to be driven almost exclusively by common (global) variance and uncertainty, consistent with the predictions of benchmark international asset pricing models featuring integrated markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Fernandes, Marcelo & Paye, Bradley & Roma, Carolina Magda da Silva, 2025. "The equity premium and the disconnect between uncertainty and volatility: A global perspective," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:quaeco:v:103:y:2025:i:c:s1062976925000511
    DOI: 10.1016/j.qref.2025.102010
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    JEL classification:

    • G34 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Mergers; Acquisitions; Restructuring; Corporate Governance
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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