IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jhouse/v44y2019icp88-98.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Loan-to-value ratio restrictions and house prices: Micro evidence from New Zealand

Author

Listed:
  • Armstrong, Jed
  • Skilling, Hayden
  • Yao, Fang

Abstract

This paper contributes to the international policy debate on the effect of macroprudential policy on housing-market dynamics. We use detailed New Zealand housing market data to evaluate the effect of loan-to-value ratio (LTV) restrictions on house prices. Our identification relies on the exemption for new builds from the LTV restrictions implemented during 2013–16 by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. The empirical findings suggest that the LTV policy is effective at reducing house price inflation by limiting the credit-fuelled housing demand channel. The magnitude and duration of the policy effect depend crucially on the rate of house price growth at the time when the policy is implemented. When house prices are increasing quickly, the effect of LTV on house prices tends to be muted and short-lived.

Suggested Citation

  • Armstrong, Jed & Skilling, Hayden & Yao, Fang, 2019. "Loan-to-value ratio restrictions and house prices: Micro evidence from New Zealand," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 88-98.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jhouse:v:44:y:2019:i:c:p:88-98
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jhe.2019.02.002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1051137718300901
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jhe.2019.02.002?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Card, David & Krueger, Alan B, 1994. "Minimum Wages and Employment: A Case Study of the Fast-Food Industry in New Jersey and Pennsylvania," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(4), pages 772-793, September.
    2. Kuttner, Kenneth N. & Shim, Ilhyock, 2016. "Can non-interest rate policies stabilize housing markets? Evidence from a panel of 57 economies," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 31-44.
    3. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "The Aftermath of Financial Crises," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 466-472, May.
    4. Claessens, Stijn & Kose, M. Ayhan & Terrones, Marco E., 2012. "How do business and financial cycles interact?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 178-190.
    5. Kristopher Gerardi & Kyle F. Herkenhoff & Lee E. Ohanian & Paul S. Willen, 2018. "Can’t Pay or Won’t Pay? Unemployment, Negative Equity, and Strategic Default," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(3), pages 1098-1131.
    6. Cerutti, Eugenio & Claessens, Stijn & Laeven, Luc, 2017. "The use and effectiveness of macroprudential policies: New evidence," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 203-224.
    7. Eric Wong & Tom Fong & Ka-fai Li & Henry Choi, 2011. "Loan-to-Value Ratio as a Macro-Prudential Tool - Hong Kong's Experience and Cross-Country Evidence," Working Papers 1101, Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
    8. Ms. Deniz O Igan & Mr. Heedon Kang, 2011. "Do Loan-To-Value and Debt-To-Income Limits Work? Evidence From Korea," IMF Working Papers 2011/297, International Monetary Fund.
    9. de Araujo, Douglas Kiarelly Godoy & Barroso, Joao Barata Ribeiro Blanco & Gonzalez, Rodrigo Barbone, 2020. "Loan-to-value policy and housing finance: Effects on constrained borrowers," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
    10. Nicole Aregger & Martin Brown & Dr. Enzo Rossi, 2013. "Transaction Taxes, Capital Gains Taxes and House Prices," Working Papers 2013-02, Swiss National Bank.
    11. Kelly, Robert & O'Malley, Terence, 2014. "A Transitions-Based Model of Default for Irish Mortgages," Research Technical Papers 17/RT/14, Central Bank of Ireland.
    12. Jérôme Vandenbussche & Ursula Vogel & Enrica Detragiache, 2015. "Macroprudential Policies and Housing Prices: A New Database and Empirical Evidence for Central, Eastern, and Southeastern Europe," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(S1), pages 343-377, March.
    13. Jed Armstrong & Ashley Dunstan & Tobias Irrcher, 2017. "Evaluating alternative monthly house price measures for New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Notes series AN2017/02, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    14. João Barata R B Barroso & Rodrigo Barbone Gonzalez & Bernardus F Nazar Van Doornik, 2017. "Credit supply responses to reserve requirement: loan-level evidence from macroprudential policy," BIS Working Papers 674, Bank for International Settlements.
    15. Horacio A Aguirre & Gastón Repetto, 2017. "Capital and currency-based macroprudential policies: an evaluation using credit registry data," BIS Working Papers 672, Bank for International Settlements.
    16. Philipp Hartmann, 2015. "Real Estate Markets and Macroprudential Policy in Europe," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(S1), pages 69-80, March.
    17. Crowe, Christopher & Dell’Ariccia, Giovanni & Igan, Deniz & Rabanal, Pau, 2013. "How to deal with real estate booms: Lessons from country experiences," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 300-319.
    18. Claudio Borio & Ilhyock Shim, 2007. "What can (macro-)prudential policy do to support monetary policy?," BIS Working Papers 242, Bank for International Settlements.
    19. Ceyla Pazarbasioglu & Miss Gudrun Johnsen & Mr. Paul Louis Ceriel Hilbers & Ms. Inci Ötker, 2005. "Assessing and Managing Rapid Credit Growth and the Role of Supervisory and Prudential Policies," IMF Working Papers 2005/151, International Monetary Fund.
    20. International Monetary Fund, 2011. "Macroprudential Policy: What Instruments and How to Use them? Lessons From Country Experiences," IMF Working Papers 2011/238, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Chunil Kim & Jinsoo Ko, 2023. "Unintended Consequences of Housing Policies: Evidence from South Korea," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-25, February.
    2. Gong, Yifan & Leung, Charles Ka Yui, 2024. "Does space matter? The case of the housing expenditure cap," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    3. Laufer, Steven & Tzur-Ilan, Nitzan, 2021. "The effect of LTV-based risk weights on house prices: Evidence from an Israeli macroprudential policy," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    4. Nicholas Garvin & Alex Kearney & Corrine Rosé, 2021. "Macroprudential Limits on Mortgage Products: The Australian Experience," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2021-07, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    5. Tom Cusbert, 2023. "The Effect of Credit Constraints on Housing Prices: (Further) Evidence from a Survey Experiment," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2023-01, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    6. Hodula, Martin & Melecký, Martin & Pfeifer, Lukáš & Szabo, Milan, 2023. "Cooling the mortgage loan market: The effect of borrower-based limits on new mortgage lending," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    7. Simona Malovana & Martin Hodula & Zuzana Gric & Josef Bajzik, 2022. "Borrower-Based Macroprudential Measures and Credit Growth: How Biased is the Existing Literature?," Working Papers 2022/8, Czech National Bank.
    8. Martin Hodula & Milan Szabo & Lukas Pfeifer & Martin Melecky, 2022. "Cooling the Mortgage Loan Market: The Effect of Recommended Borrower-Based Limits on New Mortgage Lending," Working Papers 2022/3, Czech National Bank.
    9. Fennee Chong & Venus Khim-Shen Liew, 2020. "New Zealand's Residential Price Dynamics: Do capability to consume and government policies matter?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(3), pages 2262-2274.
    10. Ryan Greenaway-McGrevy & Peter C. B. Phillips, 2021. "House prices and affordability," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(1), pages 1-6, January.
    11. Fang Yao & Bruce Lu, 2020. "The effectiveness of loan-to-value ratio policy and its interaction with monetary policy in New Zealand: an empirical analysis using supervisory bank-level data," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Measuring the effectiveness of macroprudential policies using supervisory bank-level data, volume 110, pages 51-62, Bank for International Settlements.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jed Armstrong & Hayden Skilling & Fang Yao, 2018. "Loan-to-Value Ratio Restrictions and House Prices," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2018/05, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    2. Kuttner, Kenneth N. & Shim, Ilhyock, 2016. "Can non-interest rate policies stabilize housing markets? Evidence from a panel of 57 economies," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 31-44.
    3. Gabriele Galati & Richhild Moessner, 2018. "What Do We Know About the Effects of Macroprudential Policy?," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 85(340), pages 735-770, October.
    4. Poghosyan, Tigran, 2020. "How effective is macroprudential policy? Evidence from lending restriction measures in EU countries," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    5. Nitzan Tzur-Ilan, 2019. "Macroprudential Policy: Implementation, Effects, And Lessons," Israel Economic Review, Bank of Israel, vol. 17(1), pages 39-71.
    6. Ms. Juliana Dutra Araujo & Manasa Patnam & Ms. Adina Popescu & Mr. Fabian Valencia & Weijia Yao, 2020. "Effects of Macroprudential Policy: Evidence from Over 6,000 Estimates," IMF Working Papers 2020/067, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Oriol Carreras & E Philip Davis & Rebecca Piggott, 2016. "Macroprudential tools, transmission and modelling," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 470, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    8. Ely, Regis Augusto & Tabak, Benjamin Miranda & Teixeira, Anderson Mutter, 2019. "Heterogeneous effects of the implementation of macroprudential policies on bank risk," MPRA Paper 94546, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Carreras, Oriol & Davis, E. Philip & Piggott, Rebecca, 2018. "Assessing macroprudential tools in OECD countries within a cointegration framework," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 112-130.
    10. Altunbas, Yener & Binici, Mahir & Gambacorta, Leonardo, 2018. "Macroprudential policy and bank risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 203-220.
    11. Kumar, Sanjiv & Prabheesh, K.P. & Bashar, Omar, 2022. "Examining the effectiveness of macroprudential policy in India," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 91-113.
    12. Morgan, Peter J. & Regis, Paulo José & Salike, Nimesh, 2019. "LTV policy as a macroprudential tool and its effects on residential mortgage loans," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 89-103.
    13. José García-Montalvo & Josep M. Raya, 2017. "Constraints on LTV as a Macroprudential Tool: A Precautionary Tale," Working Papers 1008, Barcelona School of Economics.
    14. Ely, Regis A. & Tabak, Benjamin M. & Teixeira, Anderson M., 2021. "The transmission mechanisms of macroprudential policies on bank risk," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 598-630.
    15. José Garcia Montalvo & Josep M. Raya, 2017. "Constraints on LTV as a macroprudential tool: a precautionary tale," Economics Working Papers 1592, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    16. Banti, Chiara & Phylaktis, Kate, 2019. "Global liquidity, house prices and policy responses," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 79-96.
    17. Gabriele Galati & Richhild Moessner, 2018. "What Do We Know About the Effects of Macroprudential Policy?," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 85(340), pages 735-770, October.
    18. Bas B. Bakker & Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Luc Laeven & Jérôme Vandenbussche & Deniz O Igan & Hui Tong, 2012. "Policies for Macrofinancial Stability; How to Deal with Credit Booms," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 12/06, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Lilit Popoyan, 2020. "Macroprudential Policy: a Blessing or a Curse?," Review of Economics and Institutions, Università di Perugia, vol. 11(1-2).
    20. Belkhir, Mohamed & Naceur, Sami Ben & Candelon, Bertrand & Wijnandts, Jean-Charles, 2022. "Macroprudential policies, economic growth and banking crises," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Loan-to-value ratio; House prices; Macroprudential policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R38 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Government Policy
    • C54 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Quantitative Policy Modeling

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jhouse:v:44:y:2019:i:c:p:88-98. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622881 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.