Economic evaluation of lettuce traceability systems in mitigating foodborne illness risks

Foodborne illnesses in fresh produce markets pose a significant public health risk. Although traceability systems are recognized for their potential to mitigate contamination impacts, the economic benefits of such systems remain underexplored. This study addresses this gap by evaluating the value of traceability in managing foodborne illness outbreaks using lettuce as a case study. We quantify the economic benefits of lettuce traceability and assess its sensitivity to contamination severity (quantity and virulence of the pathogen), pathogen persistence (survival of the pathogen on produce over time), and illness latency (time from exposure to symptoms of infection). Using an economic model with a pathogen dose–response formulation, we simulate the economic and health impacts of E. coli contamination originating from irrigation water. The results indicate that traceability benefits range from $4 to $91 million per outbreak, depending on shelf life, contamination severity, and latency of illness symptoms. Shorter shelf lives and contamination severity amplify the benefits. Traceability reduces illness by swiftly identifying and removing contaminated produce from the supply chain. The findings highlight the cost-effectiveness of traceability systems, especially for managing frequent or severe outbreaks. The study also demonstrates the contextual sensitivity of tracing benefits that stakeholders, including producers, retailers, and policymakers, should consider. Future studies should consider alternative contexts where benefit and costs may deviate from the estimates in this study.