IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modeling of Avian Influenza Mitigation Policies Within the Backyard Segment of the Poultry Sector


  • Elbakidze, Levan


This study presents a conceptual model for the analysis of avian influenza mitigation options within the small poultry farm sector (backyard flocks). The proposed model incorporates epidemiological susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) methodology into an economic cost-minimization framework. The model is used to investigate the implications and interdependencies of mitigation options that influence inter-flock contact rates of asymptomatic and symptomatic flocks, and reduce the duration of symptomatic and asymptomatic periods. The results indicates that for shorter asymptomatic periods the efforts to control inter-flock contract rates should concentrate on symptomatic flocks, while for longer asymptomatic periods the control of inter-flock contacts should be focused on asymptomatic flocks. Efforts to reduce the length of asymptomatic and symptomatic periods and efforts to reduce inter-flock contact rates function as substitute strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Elbakidze, Levan, 2008. "Modeling of Avian Influenza Mitigation Policies Within the Backyard Segment of the Poultry Sector," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 33(2), August.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:jlaare:42463

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Léonard,Daniel & Long,Ngo van, 1992. "Optimal Control Theory and Static Optimization in Economics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521331586, March.
    2. Paarlberg, Philip L. & Seitzinger, Ann Hillberg & Lee, John G., 2007. "Economic Impacts of Regionalization of a Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Outbreak in the United States," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 39(02), August.
    3. Richard D. Horan & Eli P. Fenichel & Christopher A. Wolf & Benjamin M. Gramig, 2010. "Managing Infectious Animal Disease Systems," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 2(1), pages 101-124, October.
    4. Elbakidze, Levan & McCarl, Bruce A., 2006. "Animal Disease Pre-Event Preparedness versus Post-Event Response: When Is It Economic to Protect?," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 38(02), pages 327-336, August.
    5. Elbakidze, Levan, 2007. "Economic Benefits of Animal Tracing in the Cattle Production Sector," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 32(01), April.
    6. Taha, Fawzi A., 2007. "How Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (H5N1) Has Affected World Poultry-Meat Trade," Miscellaneous Publications 7360, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    7. Bicknell, Kathryn & Wilen, James E. & Howitt, Richard E., 1999. "Public policy and private incentives for livestock disease control," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 43(4), December.
    8. Rondeau, Daniel, 2001. "Along the Way Back from the Brink," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 156-182, September.
    9. Karl M. Rich & Alex Winter-Nelson, 2007. "An Integrated Epidemiological-Economic Analysis of Foot and Mouth Disease: Applications to the Southern Cone of South America," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 89(3), pages 682-697.
    10. Djunaidi, Harjanto & Djunaidi, Andrew C.M., 2007. "The Economic Impacts of Avian Influenza on World Poultry Trade and the U.S. Poultry Industry: A Spatial Equilibrium Analysis," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 39(02), August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. Boisvert, Richard N. & Kay, David & Turvey, Calum G., 2012. "Macroeconomic costs to large scale disruptions of food production: The case of foot- and-mouth disease in the United States," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1921-1930.
    2. Mu, Jianhong H. & McCarl, Bruce A., 2010. "Avian Influenza outbreaks and poultry production mitigation strategies in the U.S," 115th Joint EAAE/AAEA Seminar, September 15-17, 2010, Freising-Weihenstephan, Germany 116452, European Association of Agricultural Economists;Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    3. Armbruster, Walter J., 2009. "Challenges and Issues in the Next Decade: A Proactive Role for Agricultural and Resource Economists," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 38(1), April.


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:jlaare:42463. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.