IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Bank earnings forecasts, risk and the crisis

  • Anolli, Mario
  • Beccalli, Elena
  • Molyneux, Philip

This paper explores the ability of financial analysts to gauge the risk taken by banks and investigates the impact of the recent financial crisis. Using a sample of 36,343 forecasts issued for 411 European banks over 2003–2009, we find that forecasting abilities are negatively influenced by bank-specific risks, except market risk. We also find that forecasting abilities vary over time: during the crisis (insolvency, credit, liquidity and market specific) risks increase earnings forecast errors, whereas before the crisis they do not influence forecasting abilities as expected. Finally, we find that during the crisis all risk indicators significantly reduce forecasting abilities of both types of analysts (optimistic and pessimistic). Analysts’ forecasting abilities prove to be worse at the height of the financial crisis, when increasing uncertainty and informational asymmetries are built-up by European banks. This questions the effectiveness of analysts in the market discipline process.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1042443114000043
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money.

Volume (Year): 29 (2014)
Issue (Month): C ()
Pages: 309-335

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:eee:intfin:v:29:y:2014:i:c:p:309-335
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/intfin

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Abarbanell, Jeffery S., 1991. "Do analysts' earnings forecasts incorporate information in prior stock price changes?," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 147-165, June.
  2. Datta, Sudip & Iskandar-Datta, Mai & Sharma, Vivek, 2011. "Product market pricing power, industry concentration and analysts' earnings forecasts," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 1352-1366, June.
  3. Trueman, Brett, 1994. "Analyst Forecasts and Herding Behavior," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 7(1), pages 97-124.
  4. Ohad Kadan & Leonardo Madureira & Rong Wang & Tzachi Zach, 2009. "Conflicts of Interest and Stock Recommendations: The Effects of the Global Settlement and Related Regulations," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(10), pages 4189-4217, October.
  5. Avramov, Doron & Chordia, Tarun & Jostova, Gergana & Philipov, Alexander, 2009. "Dispersion in analysts' earnings forecasts and credit rating," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 83-101, January.
  6. Güntay, Levent & Hackbarth, Dirk, 2010. "Corporate bond credit spreads and forecast dispersion," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(10), pages 2328-2345, October.
  7. Frankel, Richard & Lee, Charles M. C., 1998. "Accounting valuation, market expectation, and cross-sectional stock returns," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 283-319, June.
  8. Bolliger, Guido, 2004. "The characteristics of individual analysts' forecasts in Europe," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(9), pages 2283-2309, September.
  9. Kormendi, Roger & Lipe, Robert, 1987. "Earnings Innovations, Earnings Persistence, and Stock Returns," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(3), pages 323-45, July.
  10. Scharfstein, David. & Stein, Jeremy C., 1988. "Herd behavior and investment," Working papers WP 2062-88., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
  11. Hong Liu & Phil Molyneux & John O. S. Wilson, 2013. "Competition And Stability In European Banking: A Regional Analysis," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 81(2), pages 176-201, 03.
  12. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-70, May.
  13. Abarbanell, Jeffrey S & Bernard, Victor L, 1992. " Tests of Analysts' Overreaction/Underreaction to Earnings Information as an Explanation for Anomalous Stock Price Behavior," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(3), pages 1181-207, July.
  14. Michael B. Clement & Senyo Y. Tse, 2005. "Financial Analyst Characteristics and Herding Behavior in Forecasting," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(1), pages 307-341, 02.
  15. Kevin Stiroh, 2006. "New Evidence on the Determinants of Bank Risk," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 30(3), pages 237-263, December.
  16. Campbell, Sean D. & Sharpe, Steven A., 2009. "Anchoring Bias in Consensus Forecasts and Its Effect on Market Prices," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(02), pages 369-390, April.
  17. Emery, Douglas R. & Li, Xi, 2009. "Are the Wall Street Analyst Rankings Popularity Contests?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(02), pages 411-437, April.
  18. James Crotty, 2009. "Structural causes of the global financial crisis: a critical assessment of the 'new financial architecture'," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 33(4), pages 563-580, July.
  19. Catherine Schrand & Haluk Unal, 1998. "Hedging and Coordinated Risk Management: Evidence from Thrift Conversions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(3), pages 979-1013, 06.
  20. Simon H. Kwan & Mark J. Flannery & M. Nimalendran, 1999. "Market evidence on the opaqueness of banking firms' assets," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 99-11, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  21. Timothy H. Hannan & Gerald A. Hanweck, 1986. "Bank insolvency risk and the market for large certificates of deposit," Working Papers in Banking, Finance and Microeconomics 86-1, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  22. Jordan, Bradford D. & Liu, Mark H. & Wu, Qun, 2012. "Do investment banks listen to their own analysts?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 1452-1463.
  23. Martin Cihák & Heiko Hesse, 2007. "Cooperative Banks and Financial Stability," IMF Working Papers 07/2, International Monetary Fund.
  24. Manthos D. Delis & Philip Molyneux & Fotios Pasiouras, 2011. "Regulations and Productivity Growth in Banking: Evidence from Transition Economies," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(4), pages 735-764, 06.
  25. Laeven, Luc & Levine, Ross, 2009. "Bank governance, regulation and risk taking," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 259-275, August.
  26. Iannotta, Giuliano & Nocera, Giacomo & Sironi, Andrea, 2007. "Ownership structure, risk and performance in the European banking industry," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(7), pages 2127-2149, July.
  27. Conrad, Jennifer & Cornell, Bradford & Landsman, Wayne R. & Rountree, Brian R., 2006. "How Do Analyst Recommendations Respond to Major News?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 41(01), pages 25-49, March.
  28. Kothari, S. P., 2001. "Capital markets research in accounting," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-3), pages 105-231, September.
  29. John H. Boyd & Stanley L. Graham, 1988. "The profitability and risk effects of allowing bank holding companies to merge with other financial firms: a simulation study," Proceedings 213, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  30. Patricia C. O'Brien & Maureen F. Mcnichols & Lin Hsiou-Wei, 2005. "Analyst Impartiality and Investment Banking Relationships," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(4), pages 623-650, 09.
  31. Stephanou, Constantinos, 2010. "Rethinking market discipline in banking : lessons from the financial crisis," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5227, The World Bank.
  32. Kim, Yongtae & Lobo, Gerald J. & Song, Minsup, 2011. "Analyst characteristics, timing of forecast revisions, and analyst forecasting ability," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 2158-2168, August.
  33. Tobias Adrian & Hyun Song Shin, 2008. "Liquidity and leverage," Staff Reports 328, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  34. Barry, Christopher B. & Jennings, Robert H., 1992. "Information and Diversity of Analyst Opinion," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(02), pages 169-183, June.
  35. Choi, Hyung Suk & Clarke, Jonathan & Ferris, Stephen P. & Jayaraman, Narayanan, 2009. "The effects of regulation on industry structure and trade generation in the US securities industry," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(8), pages 1434-1445, August.
  36. Giuliano Iannotta & Giacomo Nocera & Andrea Sironi, 2007. "Ownership structure, risk and performance in the European banking industry," Post-Print hal-00861806, HAL.
  37. Cornett, Marcia Millon & Tehranian, Hassan & Yalcin, Atakan, 2007. "Regulation fair disclosure and the market's reaction to analyst investment recommendation changes," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 567-588, March.
  38. Stiroh, Kevin J., 2006. "A Portfolio View of Banking with Interest and Noninterest Activities," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(5), pages 1351-1361, August.
  39. Kolasinski, Adam C. & Kothari, S. P., 2008. "Investment Banking and Analyst Objectivity: Evidence from Analysts Affiliated with Mergers and Acquisitions Advisors," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 43(04), pages 817-842, December.
  40. Philipp M. Schlumpf & Markus M. Schmid & Heinz Zimmermann, 2008. "The First- and Second-Hand Effect of Analysts' Stock Recommendations: Evidence from the Swiss Stock Market," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 14(5), pages 962-988.
  41. Diana Bonfim & Moshe Kim, 2012. "Liquidity risk in banking: is there herding?," Working Papers w201218, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  42. Clarke, Jonathan & Ferris, Stephen P. & Jayaraman, Narayanan & Lee, Jinsoo, 2006. "Are Analyst Recommendations Biased? Evidence from Corporate Bankruptcies," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 41(01), pages 169-196, March.
  43. Ramnath, Sundaresh & Rock, Steve & Shane, Philip, 2008. "The financial analyst forecasting literature: A taxonomy with suggestions for further research," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 34-75.
  44. John C. Easterwood & Stacey R. Nutt, 1999. "Inefficiency in Analysts' Earnings Forecasts: Systematic Misreaction or Systematic Optimism?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(5), pages 1777-1797, October.
  45. Boyd, John H. & Graham, Stanley L. & Hewitt, R. Shawn, 1993. "Bank holding company mergers with nonbank financial firms: Effects on the risk of failure," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 43-63, February.
  46. Garci­a-Marco, Teresa & Robles-Fernández, M. Dolores, 2008. "Risk-taking behaviour and ownership in the banking industry: The Spanish evidence," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 60(4), pages 332-354.
  47. O'brien, Patricia C., 1988. "Analysts' forecasts as earnings expectations," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 53-83, January.
  48. Berger, Allen N. & Bouwman, Christa H. S. & Kick, Thomas & Schaeck, Klaus, 2010. "Bank liquidity creation and risk taking during distress," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2010,05, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  49. Fiordelisi, Franco & Marqués-Ibáñez, David & Molyneux, Phil, 2010. "Efficiency and risk in european banking," Working Paper Series 1211, European Central Bank.
  50. Terence Lim, 2001. "Rationality and Analysts' Forecast Bias," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 369-385, 02.
  51. Konishi, Masaru & Yasuda, Yukihiro, 2004. "Factors affecting bank risk taking: Evidence from Japan," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 215-232, January.
  52. Saunders, Anthony & Strock, Elizabeth & Travlos, Nickolaos G, 1990. " Ownership Structure, Deregulation, and Bank Risk Taking," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 643-54, June.
  53. Lai, Sandy & Teo, Melvyn, 2008. "Home-Biased Analysts in Emerging Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 43(03), pages 685-716, September.
  54. Demsetz, Rebecca S & Strahan, Philip E, 1997. "Diversification, Size, and Risk at Bank Holding Companies," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(3), pages 300-313, August.
  55. Feng Gu & Weimin Wang, 2005. "Intangible Assets, Information Complexity, and Analysts' Earnings Forecasts," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(9-10), pages 1673-1702.
  56. Gu, Zhaoyang & Wu, Joanna Shuang, 2003. "Earnings skewness and analyst forecast bias," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 5-29, April.
  57. de Jong, Pieter J. & Apilado, Vince P., 2009. "The changing relationship between earnings expectations and earnings for value and growth stocks during Reg FD," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 435-442, February.
  58. Asquith, Paul & Mikhail, Michael B. & Au, Andrea S., 2005. "Information content of equity analyst reports," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 245-282, February.
  59. John H. Boyd & Stanley L. Graham, 1988. "The profitability and risk effects of allowing bank holding companies to merge with other financial firms: a simulation study," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Spr, pages 3-20.
  60. Marina Balboa & J. Carlos Gómez-Sala & Germán López-Espinosa, 2009. "The Value of Adjusting the Bias in Recommendations: International Evidence," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 15(1), pages 208-230.
  61. X. Frank Zhang, 2006. "Information Uncertainty and Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(1), pages 105-137, 02.
  62. Liu, Mark H., 2011. "Analysts’ Incentives to Produce Industry-Level versus Firm-Specific Information," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 46(03), pages 757-784, June.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:intfin:v:29:y:2014:i:c:p:309-335. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.