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Internal Ratings, Non-Performing Loans, and Bank Opacity: Evidence from Analysts’ Forecasts

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Abstract

We use a panel data set of large listed European banks to evaluate the effect of the usage of internal ratings-based (IRB) models on bank opacity. We find that a more intensive implementation of these models is associated with lower absolute forecast error and disagreement among analysts about bank earnings per share. The results are stronger in banks adopting the advanced version of IRB models. In these banks the negative effect of non-performing loans on bank transparency is mitigated. We deal with concerns regarding omitted variables and reverse causality using an instrumental variables approach. Our results are driven by the more in-depth disclosure of the credit risk exposures that follows the adoption of IRB models.

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  • Brunella Bruno & Immacolata Marino & Giacomo Nocera, 2020. "Internal Ratings, Non-Performing Loans, and Bank Opacity: Evidence from Analysts’ Forecasts," CSEF Working Papers 576, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy, revised 25 Jan 2023.
    • Handle: RePEc:sef:csefwp:576
    Note: A previous version has been circulated under the title "Do Internal Rating Models Mitigate Bank Opacity? Evidence from Analysts’ Forecasts"
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    1. Mariathasan, Mike & Merrouche, Ouarda, 2014. "The manipulation of basel risk-weights," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 300-321.
    2. Brambor, Thomas & Clark, William Roberts & Golder, Matt, 2006. "Understanding Interaction Models: Improving Empirical Analyses," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(1), pages 63-82, January.
    3. Cucinelli, Doriana & Battista, Maria Luisa Di & Marchese, Malvina & Nieri, Laura, 2018. "Credit risk in European banks: The bright side of the internal ratings based approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 213-229.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bank regulation; Basel II; risk-weighted assets; transparency.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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