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Internal Ratings, Non-Performing Loans, and Bank Opacity: Evidence from Analysts’ Forecasts

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  • Brunella Bruno
  • Immacolata Marino
  • Giacomo Nocera

Abstract

We use a panel data set of large listed European banks to evaluate the effect of the usage of internal ratings-based (IRB) models on bank opacity. We find that a more intensive implementation of these models is associated with lower absolute forecast error and disagreement among analysts about bank earnings per share. The results are stronger in banks adopting the advanced version of IRB models. In these banks the negative effect of non-performing loans on bank transparency is mitigated. We deal with concerns regarding omitted variables and reverse causality using an instrumental variables approach. Our results are driven by the more in-depth disclosure of the credit risk exposures that follows the adoption of IRB models.

Suggested Citation

  • Brunella Bruno & Immacolata Marino & Giacomo Nocera, 2023. "Internal Ratings, Non-Performing Loans, and Bank Opacity: Evidence from Analysts’ Forecasts," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 23195, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    • Handle: RePEc:baf:cbafwp:cbafwp23195
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    Keywords

    Bank regulation; Basel II; risk-weighted assets; transparency;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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