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Information and Diversity of Analyst Opinion

Author

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  • Barry, Christopher B.
  • Jennings, Robert H.

Abstract

This paper examines problems in the use of divergence of analyst opinion as a proxy for estimation risk in empirical studies of security returns and asset pricing models. We demonstrate that diversity of opinion can increase even though the amount of private information increases, and we show that diversity of opinion may overstate estimation risk if the capital market aggregates the information held by investors. We produce empirical results consistent with our conclusions. Specifically, we find that divergence of opinion can produce measures of estimation risk that are inconsistent with a received proxy for estimation risk and with observed common stock returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Barry, Christopher B. & Jennings, Robert H., 1992. "Information and Diversity of Analyst Opinion," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(2), pages 169-183, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:cup:jfinqa:v:27:y:1992:i:02:p:169-183_00
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    1. Habib, Ahsan & Hasan, Mostafa Monzur, 2019. "Corporate life cycle research in accounting, finance and corporate governance: A survey, and directions for future research," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 188-201.
    2. Kajal Lahiri & Xuguang Sheng, 2010. "Measuring forecast uncertainty by disagreement: The missing link," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 514-538.
    3. Li Jin & Stewart C. Myers, 2004. "R-Squared Around the World: New Theory and New Tests," NBER Working Papers 10453, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Anolli, Mario & Beccalli, Elena & Molyneux, Philip, 2014. "Bank earnings forecasts, risk and the crisis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 309-335.
    5. Hasan, Mostafa Monzur & Habib, Ahsan, 2017. "Firm life cycle and idiosyncratic volatility," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 164-175.
    6. Oveis Madadian & Walter Aerts & Tom Van Caneghem, 2018. "Social comparison of cost behaviour and financial analysts," Accounting and Business Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(7), pages 805-839, November.
    7. A. Bernales, 2014. "The Effects of Information Asymmetries on the Ex-Post Success of Stock Option Listings," Working papers 495, Banque de France.
    8. Ho, Li-Chin Jennifer & Hassell, John M. & Swidler, Steve, 1995. "An empirical examination of the dispersion and accuracy of analyst forecasts surrounding option listing," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 171-185.
    9. Jean-Fran├žois L'Her & Jean-Marc Suret, 1995. "Heterogeneous Expectations, Short Sales Regulation and the Risk Return Relationship," CIRANO Working Papers 95s-29, CIRANO.
    10. Jin, Li & Myers, Stewart C., 2006. "R2 around the world: New theory and new tests," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(2), pages 257-292, February.
    11. Sanjay W. Bissessur & David Veenman, 2016. "Analyst information precision and small earnings surprises," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 21(4), pages 1327-1360, December.
    12. Alejandro Bernales & Massimo Guidolin, 2013. "The Effects of Information Asymmetries on the Success of Stock Option Listings," Working Papers 484, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    13. Abarbanell, Jeffery S. & Lanen, William N. & Verrecchia, Robert E., 1995. "Analysts' forecasts as proxies for investor beliefs in empirical research," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 31-60, July.
    14. Tang, Wenbin & Zhu, Lili, 2017. "How security prices respond to a surge in investor attention: Evidence from Google Search of ADRs," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 38-50.
    15. Jean-Fran├žois L'Her & Jean-Marc Suret, 1995. "Consensus, dispersion et prix des titres," CIRANO Working Papers 95s-22, CIRANO.
    16. Kang, Qiang & Liu, Qiao, 2008. "Stock trading, information production, and executive incentives," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 484-498, September.
    17. Yan, Yanni & Child, John, 2004. "Investors' resource commitments and information reporting systems: control in international joint ventures," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 57(4), pages 361-371, April.
    18. Bernales, Alejandro, 2017. "The success of option listings," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 139-161.
    19. Ka Wai Choi & Xiaomeng Chen & Sue Wright & Hai Wu, 2014. "Analysts' Forecasts Following Forced CEO Changes," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 50(2), pages 146-173, June.
    20. Kiridaran Kanagaretnam & Gerald J. Lobo & Dennis J. Whalen, 2005. "Relationship Between Analyst Forecast Properties and Equity Bid-Ask Spreads and Depths Around Quarterly Earnings Announcements," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(9-10), pages 1773-1799.
    21. Frieder, Laura & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 2001. "Brand Perceptions and the Market for Common Stock, forthcoming, Journal of Financial and Quantitative," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt2kt3g862, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
    22. Li JIN & Stewart C. MYERS, 2004. "R2 Around the World: New Theory and New Tests," FAME Research Paper Series rp158, International Center for Financial Asset Management and Engineering.

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