IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finana/v99y2025ics1057521925000419.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

National risk preference, insurance development and exports-a study based on the world values survey

Author

Listed:
  • Zeng, Xiaohui
  • Xing, Danna
  • Zhan, Qilin
  • Mu, Xiuzhen

Abstract

Based on the data from the World Values Survey and the World Integrated Trade Solution for 23 exporting countries (regions) from 1993 to 2021, this paper studies the impact of national risk preference on exports, and investigates the moderating effect of insurance development level on this impact. The results show that national risk preference has a significant positive effect on the exports of exporting countries (regions), and the results are still significant after endogeneity and robustness tests. The development of insurance industry has a significant promoting effect on the exports of exporting countries (regions), but the coefficient of the interaction term with national risk preference is significantly negative, indicating its substitution for national risk preference. Exporting countries (regions) with lower insurance development levels rely more on the spirit of adventure to overcome risks in exporting, but the development of insurance industry is conducive to overcoming this constraint. According to the results of heterogeneity test, the substitution is limited. Its mediating effect is significant for low contract- intensive products with less risks. However, the effect is not significant for high contract-intensive products with higher risks.

Suggested Citation

  • Zeng, Xiaohui & Xing, Danna & Zhan, Qilin & Mu, Xiuzhen, 2025. "National risk preference, insurance development and exports-a study based on the world values survey," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:99:y:2025:i:c:s1057521925000419
    DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2025.103954
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1057521925000419
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.irfa.2025.103954?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Shen, Yanyan & Zheng, Xiaojia, 2024. "Exporting corporate social responsibility: Evidence from foreign bank entry," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(5).
    2. Christophe Courbage & Béatrice Rey, 2016. "Decision Thresholds and Changes in Risk for Preventive Treatment," Post-Print halshs-01250983, HAL.
    3. Yongrong Xin & Aftab Hussain Tabasam & Zhenling Chen & Aysha Zamir & Carlos Samuel Ramos-Meza, 2024. "Correction: Analyzing the Impact of Foreign Direct Investment, Energy Consumption on Services Exports, and Growth of the Services Sector: Evidence from SAARC Countries," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 15(3), pages 15450-15451, September.
    4. Stephen Knack & Philip Keefer, 1997. "Does Social Capital Have an Economic Payoff? A Cross-Country Investigation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 112(4), pages 1251-1288.
    5. Nathan Nunn, 2007. "Relationship-Specificity, Incomplete Contracts, and the Pattern of Trade," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 122(2), pages 569-600.
    6. Péter Esö & Lucy White, 2004. "Precautionary Bidding in Auctions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(1), pages 77-92, January.
    7. Nicholas Bloom & Max Floetotto & Nir Jaimovich & Itay Saporta†Eksten & Stephen J. Terry, 2018. "Really Uncertain Business Cycles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 86(3), pages 1031-1065, May.
    8. José L. Fillat & Stefania Garetto, 2015. "Risk, Returns, and Multinational Production," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 130(4), pages 2027-2073.
    9. Kyle Handley & Nuno Limão, 2018. "Policy Uncertainty, Trade, and Welfare: Theory and Evidence for China and the United States," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Policy Externalities and International Trade Agreements, chapter 5, pages 123-175, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    10. Dennis Novy & Alan M. Taylor, 2020. "Trade and Uncertainty," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(4), pages 749-765, October.
    11. Tversky, Amos & Kahneman, Daniel, 1992. "Advances in Prospect Theory: Cumulative Representation of Uncertainty," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 297-323, October.
    12. repec:iik:journl:v:64:y:2017:i:2017:p:69-73 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Natalia Ramondo & Veronica Rappoport & Kim J. Ruhl, 2013. "The Proximity-Concentration Tradeoff under Uncertainty," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 80(4), pages 1582-1621.
    14. Monika Mrázová & J. Peter Neary, 2017. "Not So Demanding: Demand Structure and Firm Behavior," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(12), pages 3835-3874, December.
    15. Gervais, Antoine, 2018. "Uncertainty, risk aversion and international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 145-158.
    16. Christophe Courbage & Béatrice Rey, 2006. "Prudence and optimal prevention for health risks," Post-Print halshs-03353388, HAL.
    17. George Alessandria & Costas Arkolakis & Kim J. Ruhl, 2021. "Firm Dynamics and Trade," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 13(1), pages 253-280, August.
    18. Feng, Ling & Li, Zhiyuan & Swenson, Deborah L., 2017. "Trade policy uncertainty and exports: Evidence from China's WTO accession," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 20-36.
    19. Andrew B. Bernard & J. Bradford Jensen & Stephen J. Redding & Peter K. Schott, 2007. "Firms in International Trade," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 21(3), pages 105-130, Summer.
    20. Marcela Eslava & James Tybout & David Jinkins & C. Krizan & Jonathan Eaton, 2015. "A Search and Learning Model of Export Dynamics," 2015 Meeting Papers 1535, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    21. Nick Bloom & Stephen Bond & John Van Reenen, 2007. "Uncertainty and Investment Dynamics," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 74(2), pages 391-415.
    22. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    23. Christophe Courbage & Béatrice Rey, 2016. "Decision Thresholds and Changes in Risk for Preventive Treatment," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 111-124, January.
    24. Louis Eeckhoudt & Christian Gollier, 2005. "The impact of prudence on optimal prevention," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 26(4), pages 989-994, November.
    25. Kunreuther, Howard & Pauly, Mark, 2006. "Insurance Decision-Making and Market Behavior," Foundations and Trends(R) in Microeconomics, now publishers, vol. 1(2), pages 63-127, April.
    26. Broll, Udo & Mukherjee, Soumyatanu, 2017. "International trade and firms' attitude towards risk," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 69-73.
    27. Liyan Han & Donghui Li & Fariborz Moshirian & Yanhui Tian, 2010. "Insurance Development and Economic Growth*," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 35(2), pages 183-199, April.
    28. Yu, Mingzhe & Fan, Jiachuan & Wang, Haijun & Wang, Jie, 2023. "US trade policy uncertainty on Chinese agricultural imports and exports: An aggregate and product-level analysis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 70-83.
    29. Udo Broll & Soumyatanu Mukherjee & Rudra Sensarma, 2020. "Risk preferences estimation of exporting firms under exchange rate uncertainty," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 67(1), pages 126-136, February.
    30. Peter, Richard, 2017. "Optimal self-protection in two periods: On the role of endogenous saving," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 19-36.
    31. Yu, Eden S.H. & Chao, Chi-Chur, 2021. "Non-traded goods, firm dynamics and wages in a service economy," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    32. Yongrong Xin & Aftab Hussain Tabasam & Zhenling Chen & Aysha Zamir & Carlos Samuel Ramos-Meza, 2024. "Analyzing the Impact of Foreign Direct Investment, Energy Consumption on Services Exports, and Growth of the Services Sector: Evidence from SAARC Countries," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 15(2), pages 5709-5728, June.
    33. Qing Liu & Ruosi Lu & Xiangjun Ma, 2015. "Corruption, Financial Resources and Exports," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(5), pages 1023-1043, November.
    34. Diego C. Nocetti, 2016. "Robust Comparative Statics of Risk Changes," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 62(5), pages 1381-1392, May.
    35. Olivier l'Haridon & Ferdinand M. Vieider, 2019. "All over the map: A worldwide comparison of risk preferences," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 10(1), pages 185-215, January.
    36. Gianluca Benigno & Jan J. J. Groen, 2020. "Uncertainty about Trade Policy Uncertainty," Staff Reports 919, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    37. Christophe Courbage & Béatrice Rey, 2006. "Prudence and optimal prevention for health risks," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(12), pages 1323-1327, December.
    38. Chunlai Chen & Yan Wu, 2017. "Impact of Foreign Direct Investment and Export on Urbanization: Evidence from China," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 25(1), pages 71-89, January.
    39. White, Lucy, 2008. "Prudence in bargaining: The effect of uncertainty on bargaining outcomes," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 62(1), pages 211-231, January.
    40. Esposito, Federico, 2022. "Demand risk and diversification through international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    41. Marc J. Melitz, 2003. "The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(6), pages 1695-1725, November.
    42. Benjamin Enke & Thomas Graeber, 2023. "Cognitive Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 138(4), pages 2021-2067.
    43. Dr. Fentaw Leykun, 2020. "Insurance Market Development, Financial Service Export and Economic Growth: Evidence from East African Countries," International Journal of Finance, Insurance and Risk Management, International Journal of Finance, Insurance and Risk Management, vol. 10(1), pages 57-98.
    44. Nguyen, Daniel X., 2012. "Demand uncertainty: Exporting delays and exporting failures," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 336-344.
    45. Tanja Leppäaho & Tuija Mainela & Eriikka Paavilainen-Mäntymäki, 2023. "Opportunity beliefs in internationalization: A microhistorical approach," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 54(7), pages 1298-1312, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. De Sousa, José & Disdier, Anne-Célia & Gaigné, Carl, 2020. "Export decision under risk," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    2. Chen, Cheng & Senga, Tatsuro & Sun, Chang & Zhang, Hongyong, 2023. "Uncertainty, imperfect information, and expectation formation over the firm’s life cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 60-77.
    3. Esposito, Federico, 2022. "Demand risk and diversification through international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    4. Bianconi, Marcelo & Esposito, Federico & Sammon, Marco, 2021. "Trade policy uncertainty and stock returns," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    5. Esposito, Federico, 2019. "Demand Risk and Diversification through Trade," MPRA Paper 99875, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Timo Heinrich & Jason Shachat, 2020. "The development of risk aversion and prudence in Chinese children and adolescents," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 61(3), pages 263-287, December.
    7. Gigout, Timothee, 2019. "Firm dynamics in an global and uncertain economy," MPRA Paper 96569, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 16 Oct 2019.
    8. Stefan Felder & Thomas Mayrhofer, 2018. "Threshold analysis in the presence of both the diagnostic and the therapeutic risk," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 19(7), pages 1019-1026, September.
    9. Antoine Gervais, 2021. "Global sourcing under uncertainty," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 54(3), pages 1103-1135, November.
    10. Federico Esposito, 2016. "Risk Diversification and International Trade," 2016 Meeting Papers 302, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    11. Eliav Danziger & Leif Danziger, 2025. "Demand Uncertainty and the Optimal Number of Export Destinations," CESifo Working Paper Series 11633, CESifo.
    12. Conconi, Paola & Sapir, André & Zanardi, Maurizio, 2016. "The internationalization process of firms: From exports to FDI," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 16-30.
    13. Erhardt, Katharina & Gupta, Apoorva, 2024. "Go wide or go deep: Margins of new trade flows," DICE Discussion Papers 415, Heinrich Heine University Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics (DICE).
    14. Han Bleichrodt, 2022. "The prevention puzzle," The Geneva Risk and Insurance Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics (The Geneva Association), vol. 47(2), pages 277-297, September.
    15. Christophe Courbage & Richard Peter, 2021. "On the effect of uncertainty on personal vaccination decisions," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(11), pages 2937-2942, November.
    16. Chris Muris & Horst Raff & Nicolas Schmitt & Frank Stähler, 2023. "Inventory, Sourcing, and the Effects of Trade Costs: Theory and Empirical Evidence," CESifo Working Paper Series 10253, CESifo.
    17. Desu Liu & Mario Menegatti, 2019. "Optimal saving and health prevention," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 128(2), pages 177-191, October.
    18. Fernandes, Ana P. & Duanmu, Jing-Lin, 2025. "Foreign banks and firms’ export dynamics: Evidence from China’s banking reform," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    19. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2023. "Duration of membership in the world trade organization and investment-oriented remittances inflows," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 258-277.
    20. Cezar, Rafael & Gigout, Timothée & Tripier, Fabien, 2020. "Cross-border investments and uncertainty: Firm-level evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:99:y:2025:i:c:s1057521925000419. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620166 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.