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Natural disasters, missing pupils: Evidence from colonial Jamaica’s school system

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  • Huesler, Joel

Abstract

This paper quantifies how large-scale natural shocks impede human-capital accumulation when state capacity is weak. I assemble a new monthly panel (1892–1942) linking parish attendance, exam scores, and six-hourly HURDAT wind fields. Exploiting quasi-random timing and storm trajectories, I estimate causal impacts with (i) a distributed-lag DiD, (ii) a stacked event study, and (iii) a continuous-intensity triple-difference design. A category 2 hurricane cuts attendance by 3.6% and test scores by 3%, 90% of the exam loss flowing through storm-induced absences. Losses are larger in high-volatility, urban, and agriculture-dependent parishes; each prior hurricane since 1892 leaves a −1.4 pp legacy drop in attendance. Results are robust to alternative metrics, population-weighted damage, placebos, and Fisher tests.

Suggested Citation

  • Huesler, Joel, 2025. "Natural disasters, missing pupils: Evidence from colonial Jamaica’s school system," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:exehis:v:98:y:2025:i:c:s0014498325000579
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eeh.2025.101710
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