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Indirect economic benefits of energy consumption changes under China's carbon neutrality goal

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  • Huang, Chengfang
  • Guo, Jinjun
  • Zhang, Zhengtao
  • Li, Ning
  • Zhu, Anfeng
  • Liu, Yuan
  • Chen, Xi
  • Sun, Benbo

Abstract

Mitigation measures aimed at achieving carbon neutrality can lead to significant economic benefits by reducing the negative impact of climate warming. But the economic benefits of energy-related emission reduction actions under China's carbon neutrality goal are still unclear. Our study establishes an Adaptive Multi-Regional Input-Output model considering industrial linkage effects from energy consumption perspective, simulates the indirect economic benefits (IEB) through scenario analysis with 2017 as the base year. The results show that: (1) In the trajectory towards China's carbon neutrality, energy consumption changes will engender IEB, and peaking around 2040 at approximately 5.5 % of the GDP2017. (2) IEB is higher in the relatively less developed northwest regions, in Qinghai and Xinjiang, it will account for 13.0 % and 15.7 % of provincial GDP2017 by 2030. (3) Sectoral sensitivity of IEB is evident, with energy sector is the most sensitive, contributing over 60 % on average, particularly in the northwest and southwest regions; and the higher sensitivity of agriculture and industry is predominantly found in the central region. Therefore, considering the economic impacts of inter-provincial and inter-sectoral industrial linkages is crucial for scientifically guiding region-specific emission reduction actions, which can effectively facilitate the maximization of regional economic benefits under the carbon neutrality goal.

Suggested Citation

  • Huang, Chengfang & Guo, Jinjun & Zhang, Zhengtao & Li, Ning & Zhu, Anfeng & Liu, Yuan & Chen, Xi & Sun, Benbo, 2025. "Indirect economic benefits of energy consumption changes under China's carbon neutrality goal," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 317(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:317:y:2025:i:c:s0360544225003342
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2025.134692
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