IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reensy/v206y2021ics095183202030795x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Post-disaster recovery in industrial sectors: A Markov process analysis of multiple lifeline disruptions

Author

Listed:
  • Liu, Huan
  • Tatano, Hirokazu
  • Pflug, Georg
  • Hochrainer-Stigler, Stefan

Abstract

Lifeline disruptions can represent a serious economic threat at various scales. However, firm-level empirical evidence regarding the consequences and reliability of lifeline services, and how lifeline service disruptions impact on economic losses after disasters, is still lacking. This study applies a temporal, non-homogeneous, Markov process approach that explicitly considers multiple lifeline service disruptions. This approach is used to quantitatively estimate the impacts of multiple lifeline disruptions on business production capacity losses. The model is illustrated based on the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake case study with detailed information obtained from individual business recovery data. The result indicates that the restoration of lifeline systems during disruptions should consider each business service given that it significantly affects business production capacity recovery. For example, the case study results indicate that if electrical power, water and gas are disrupted, restoration of electrical power supply yields the highest influence on production capacity improvement, amounting to 15% per day on average, compared with 10% per day for gas restorations, and 8% per day for water restoration. The proposed model can provide information to business managers and policymakers on the optimum recovery strategy and on how to mitigate economic losses in disruption event cases.

Suggested Citation

  • Liu, Huan & Tatano, Hirokazu & Pflug, Georg & Hochrainer-Stigler, Stefan, 2021. "Post-disaster recovery in industrial sectors: A Markov process analysis of multiple lifeline disruptions," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:206:y:2021:i:c:s095183202030795x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2020.107299
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S095183202030795X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ress.2020.107299?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ouyang, Min & Wang, Zhenghua, 2015. "Resilience assessment of interdependent infrastructure systems: With a focus on joint restoration modeling and analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 74-82.
    2. Theresa Brown & Walt Beyeler & Dianne Barton, 2004. "Assessing infrastructure interdependencies: the challenge of risk analysis for complex adaptive systems," International Journal of Critical Infrastructures, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 1(1), pages 108-117.
    3. Patterson, S.A. & Apostolakis, G.E., 2007. "Identification of critical locations across multiple infrastructures for terrorist actions," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 92(9), pages 1183-1203.
    4. J Swanson, 2002. "Business Dynamics—Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 53(4), pages 472-473, April.
    5. Bloomfield, Robin E. & Popov, Peter & Salako, Kizito & Stankovic, Vladimir & Wright, David, 2017. "Preliminary interdependency analysis: An approach to support critical-infrastructure risk-assessment," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 198-217.
    6. Stephanie E. Chang & Timothy L. McDaniels & Joey Mikawoz & Krista Peterson, 2007. "Infrastructure failure interdependencies in extreme events: power outage consequences in the 1998 Ice Storm," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 41(2), pages 337-358, May.
    7. Adam Rose & Shu‐Yi Liao, 2005. "Modeling Regional Economic Resilience to Disasters: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis of Water Service Disruptions," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(1), pages 75-112, February.
    8. Liu, Wei & Song, Zhaoyang, 2020. "Review of studies on the resilience of urban critical infrastructure networks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    9. Almoghathawi, Yasser & Barker, Kash & Albert, Laura A., 2019. "Resilience-driven restoration model for interdependent infrastructure networks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 185(C), pages 12-23.
    10. Liu, Wei & Song, Zhaoyang & Ouyang, Min & Li, Jie, 2020. "Recovery-based seismic resilience enhancement strategies of water distribution networks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    11. Adam Rose & Gbadebo Oladosu & Shu‐Yi Liao, 2007. "Business Interruption Impacts of a Terrorist Attack on the Electric Power System of Los Angeles: Customer Resilience to a Total Blackout," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 27(3), pages 513-531, June.
    12. Yoshio Kajitani & Shigeo Sagai, 2009. "Modelling the interdependencies of critical infrastructures during natural disasters: a case of supply, communication and transportation infrastructures," International Journal of Critical Infrastructures, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 5(1/2), pages 38-50.
    13. Yoshio Kajitani & Hirokazu Tatano, 2018. "Applicability of a spatial computable general equilibrium model to assess the short-term economic impact of natural disasters," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(3), pages 289-312, July.
    14. Nan, Cen & Sansavini, Giovanni, 2017. "A quantitative method for assessing resilience of interdependent infrastructures," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 35-53.
    15. Sanci, Ece & Daskin, Mark S., 2019. "Integrating location and network restoration decisions in relief networks under uncertainty," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 279(2), pages 335-350.
    16. Sandra Sydnor & Linda Niehm & Yoon Lee & Maria Marshall & Holly Schrank, 2017. "Analysis of post-disaster damage and disruptive impacts on the operating status of small businesses after Hurricane Katrina," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 85(3), pages 1637-1663, February.
    17. Stéphane Hallegatte, 2008. "An adaptive regional input-output model and its application to the assessment of the economic cost of Katrina," Post-Print hal-00716550, HAL.
    18. Yang, Yongsheng & Khan, Faisal & Thodi, Premkumar & Abbassi, Rouzbeh, 2017. "Corrosion induced failure analysis of subsea pipelines," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 214-222.
    19. H. Klammler & P. S. C. Rao & K. Hatfield, 2018. "Modeling dynamic resilience in coupled technological-social systems subjected to stochastic disturbance regimes," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 38(1), pages 140-159, March.
    20. Yasuyuki Todo & Kentaro Nakajima & Petr Matous, 2015. "How Do Supply Chain Networks Affect The Resilience Of Firms To Natural Disasters? Evidence From The Great East Japan Earthquake," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(2), pages 209-229, March.
    21. Hirokazu Tatano & Satoshi Tsuchiya, 2008. "A framework for economic loss estimation due to seismic transportation network disruption: a spatial computable general equilibrium approach," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 44(2), pages 253-265, February.
    22. Sergey V. Buldyrev & Roni Parshani & Gerald Paul & H. Eugene Stanley & Shlomo Havlin, 2010. "Catastrophic cascade of failures in interdependent networks," Nature, Nature, vol. 464(7291), pages 1025-1028, April.
    23. E. E. Koks & J. Rozenberg & C. Zorn & M. Tariverdi & M. Vousdoukas & S. A. Fraser & J. W. Hall & S. Hallegatte, 2019. "A global multi-hazard risk analysis of road and railway infrastructure assets," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 1-11, December.
    24. Ouyang, Min, 2014. "Review on modeling and simulation of interdependent critical infrastructure systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 43-60.
    25. Stéphane Hallegatte, 2008. "An Adaptive Regional Input‐Output Model and its Application to the Assessment of the Economic Cost of Katrina," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(3), pages 779-799, June.
    26. Yoshio Kajitani & Hirokazu Tatano, 2014. "Estimation Of Production Capacity Loss Rate After The Great East Japan Earthquake And Tsunami In 2011," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(1), pages 13-38, March.
    27. Nozhati, Saeed & Sarkale, Yugandhar & Chong, Edwin K.P. & Ellingwood, Bruce R., 2020. "Optimal stochastic dynamic scheduling for managing community recovery from natural hazards," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Xu, Min & Li, Guoyuan & Chen, Anthony, 2024. "Resilience-driven post-disaster restoration of interdependent infrastructure systems under different decision-making environments," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    2. Wu, Jingyi & Yu, Yang & Yu, Jianxing & Chang, Xueying & Xu, Lixin & Zhang, Wenhao, 2023. "A Markov resilience assessment framework for tension leg platform under mooring failure," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    3. Geng, Sunyue & Liu, Sifeng & Fang, Zhigeng, 2022. "A demand-based framework for resilience assessment of multistate networks under disruptions," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    4. Chen, Hao & Yan, Haobo & Gong, Kai & Geng, Haopeng & Yuan, Xiao-Chen, 2022. "Assessing the business interruption costs from power outages in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bellè, Andrea & Abdin, Adam F. & Fang, Yi-Ping & Zeng, Zhiguo & Barros, Anne, 2023. "A data-driven distributionally robust approach for the optimal coupling of interdependent critical infrastructures under random failures," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 309(2), pages 872-889.
    2. Reilly, Allison C. & Baroud, Hiba & Flage, Roger & Gerst, Michael D., 2021. "Sources of uncertainty in interdependent infrastructure and their implications," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    3. Samiul Hasan & Greg Foliente, 2015. "Modeling infrastructure system interdependencies and socioeconomic impacts of failure in extreme events: emerging R&D challenges," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 78(3), pages 2143-2168, September.
    4. Ouyang, Min, 2014. "Review on modeling and simulation of interdependent critical infrastructure systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 43-60.
    5. Rui Huang & Arunima Malik & Manfred Lenzen & Yutong Jin & Yafei Wang & Futu Faturay & Zhiyi Zhu, 2022. "Supply-chain impacts of Sichuan earthquake: a case study using disaster input–output analysis," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 110(3), pages 2227-2248, February.
    6. Mühlhofer, Evelyn & Koks, Elco E. & Kropf, Chahan M. & Sansavini, Giovanni & Bresch, David N., 2023. "A generalized natural hazard risk modelling framework for infrastructure failure cascades," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
    7. Linn Svegrup & Jonas Johansson & Henrik Hassel, 2019. "Integration of Critical Infrastructure and Societal Consequence Models: Impact on Swedish Power System Mitigation Decisions," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(9), pages 1970-1996, September.
    8. J. A. León & M. Ordaz & E. Haddad & I. F. Araújo, 2022. "Risk caused by the propagation of earthquake losses through the economy," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    9. Yuchen Hu & Harvey Cutler & Yihua Mao, 2023. "Economic Loss Assessment for Losses Due to Earthquake under an Integrated Building, Lifeline, and Transportation Nexus: A Spatial Computable General Equilibrium Approach for Shelby County, TN," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-24, May.
    10. Kong, Jingjing & Zhang, Chao & Simonovic, Slobodan P., 2021. "Optimizing the resilience of interdependent infrastructures to regional natural hazards with combined improvement measures," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 210(C).
    11. Chopra, Shauhrat S. & Khanna, Vikas, 2015. "Interconnectedness and interdependencies of critical infrastructures in the US economy: Implications for resilience," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 436(C), pages 865-877.
    12. Trucco, Paolo & Petrenj, Boris, 2023. "Characterisation of resilience metrics in full-scale applications to interdependent infrastructure systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).
    13. Matteo Coronese & Davide Luzzati, 2022. "Economic impacts of natural hazards and complexity science: a critical review," LEM Papers Series 2022/13, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    14. Stéphane Hallegatte, 2014. "Modeling the Role of Inventories and Heterogeneity in the Assessment of the Economic Costs of Natural Disasters," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 34(1), pages 152-167, January.
    15. Moglen, Rachel L. & Barth, Julius & Gupta, Shagun & Kawai, Eiji & Klise, Katherine & Leibowicz, Benjamin D., 2023. "A nexus approach to infrastructure resilience planning under uncertainty," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
    16. Weijiang Li & Jiahong Wen & Bo Xu & Xiande Li & Shiqiang Du, 2018. "Integrated Assessment of Economic Losses in Manufacturing Industry in Shanghai Metropolitan Area Under an Extreme Storm Flood Scenario," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-19, December.
    17. Monsalve, Mauricio & de la Llera, Juan Carlos, 2019. "Data-driven estimation of interdependencies and restoration of infrastructure systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 167-180.
    18. Lu, Qing-Chang & Xu, Peng-Cheng & Zhao, Xiangmo & Zhang, Lei & Li, Xiaoling & Cui, Xin, 2022. "Measuring network interdependency between dependent networks: A supply-demand-based approach," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    19. Poulin, Craig & Kane, Michael B., 2021. "Infrastructure resilience curves: Performance measures and summary metrics," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    20. Brunner, L.G. & Peer, R.A.M. & Zorn, C. & Paulik, R. & Logan, T.M., 2024. "Understanding cascading risks through real-world interdependent urban infrastructure," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:206:y:2021:i:c:s095183202030795x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/reliability-engineering-and-system-safety .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.