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How much do incentives affect car purchase? Agent-based microsimulation of consumer choice of new cars--Part II: Forecasting effects of feebates based on energy-efficiency

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  • de Haan, Peter
  • Mueller, Michel G.
  • Scholz, Roland W.

Abstract

In this paper, we simulate the car market in order to forecast the effects of feebate systems based on an energy-labeling scheme using categories A to G. Very fuel-efficient (A) cars receive a cash incentive, highly inefficient (G) cars pay additional fees. Consumers have different price elasticities and behavioral options to react to feebates. They can switch to a smaller sized car, but as energy-efficiency varies widely within size segments, they can also stick to the preferred size class and choose a more efficient (smaller) engine. In addition, previously owned cars influence the next car to be chosen. We use an agent-based microsimulation approach particularly suited to predict environmental and market effects of feebates. Heteorogenous agents choose from a choice set drawn from a detailed fleet of new cars. Incentives of [euro]2000 for A-labeled cars induce an additional rated CO2 emission decrease of new car registrations between 3.4% and 4.3%, with CO2 abatement costs between [euro]6 and [euro]13 per ton, and otherwise little undesired market disturbance. The risk of rebound effects is estimated to be low. After adopting the frequencies of consumer segments to a given country, the model presented is applicable to all European car markets.

Suggested Citation

  • de Haan, Peter & Mueller, Michel G. & Scholz, Roland W., 2009. "How much do incentives affect car purchase? Agent-based microsimulation of consumer choice of new cars--Part II: Forecasting effects of feebates based on energy-efficiency," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 1083-1094, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:37:y:2009:i:3:p:1083-1094
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Bénédicte Meurisse, 2015. "On the relevance of differentiated car purchase taxes in light of the rebound effect," EconomiX Working Papers 2015-24, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
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    4. Martin, Elliot & Shaheen, Susan & Lipman, Timothy & Camel, Madonna, 2014. "Evaluating the public perception of a feebate policy in California through the estimation and cross-validation of an ordinal regression model," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 144-153.
    5. Mahlia, T.M.I. & Tohno, S. & Tezuka, T., 2013. "International experience on incentive program in support of fuel economy standards and labelling for motor vehicle: A comprehensive review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 18-33.
    6. Laurence Turcksin & Olivier Mairesse & Cathy Macharis & Joeri Van Mierlo, 2013. "Encouraging Environmentally Friendlier Cars via Fiscal Measures: General Methodology and Application to Belgium," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 6(1), pages 1-21, January.
    7. Beck, Matthew J. & Rose, John M. & Hensher, David A., 2013. "Environmental attitudes and emissions charging: An example of policy implications for vehicle choice," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 171-182.
    8. Bishop, Justin D.K. & Martin, Niall P.D. & Boies, Adam M., 2016. "Quantifying the role of vehicle size, powertrain technology, activity and consumer behaviour on new UK passenger vehicle fleet energy use and emissions under different policy objectives," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 196-212.
    9. Adamos Adamou & Sofronis Clerides & Theodoros Zachariadis, 2011. "Designing Carbon Taxation Schemes for Automobiles: A Simulation Exercise for Germany," Working Papers 2011.96, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    10. Whitehead, Jake & Franklin, Joel P. & Washington, Simon, 2014. "The impact of a congestion pricing exemption on the demand for new energy efficient vehicles in Stockholm," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 24-40.
    11. Coad, Alex & de Haan, Peter & Woersdorfer, Julia Sophie, 2009. "Consumer support for environmental policies: An application to purchases of green cars," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(7), pages 2078-2086, May.
    12. Bénédicte Meurisse & Maxime Le Roy, 2014. "Towards a clean vehicle fleet: from households’ valuation of fuel efficiency to policy implications," Working Papers 1406, Chaire Economie du climat.
    13. Gnann, Till & Plötz, Patrick & Kühn, André & Wietschel, Martin, 2015. "Modelling market diffusion of electric vehicles with real world driving data – German market and policy options," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 95-112.
    14. Bastin, Cristina & Szklo, Alexandre & Rosa, Luiz Pinguelli, 2010. "Diffusion of new automotive technologies for improving energy efficiency in Brazil's light vehicle fleet," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(7), pages 3586-3597, July.
    15. Brand, Christian & Anable, Jillian & Tran, Martino, 2013. "Accelerating the transformation to a low carbon passenger transport system: The role of car purchase taxes, feebates, road taxes and scrappage incentives in the UK," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 132-148.
    16. Eppstein, Margaret J. & Grover, David K. & Marshall, Jeffrey S. & Rizzo, Donna M., 2011. "An agent-based model to study market penetration of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 3789-3802, June.
    17. Gnann, Till & Plötz, Patrick & Funke, Simon & Wietschel, Martin, 2014. "What is the market potential of electric vehicles as commercial passenger cars? A case study from Germany," Working Papers "Sustainability and Innovation" S14/2014, Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI).
    18. Li, Francis G.N. & Trutnevyte, Evelina & Strachan, Neil, 2015. "A review of socio-technical energy transition (STET) models," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 290-305.
    19. repec:eee:enepol:v:107:y:2017:i:c:p:561-572 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Maria Ioncică & Eva-Cristina Petrescu & Diana Ioncică, 2012. "Transports and Consumers’ Ecological Behaviour," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 14(31), pages 70-83, February.
    21. Nayum, Alim & Klöckner, Christian A. & Prugsamatz, Sunita, 2013. "Influences of car type class and carbon dioxide emission levels on purchases of new cars: A retrospective analysis of car purchases in Norway," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 96-108.
    22. Haq, Gary & Weiss, Martin, 2016. "CO2 labelling of passenger cars in Europe: Status, challenges, and future prospects," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 324-335.

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