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The effects of motivational factors on car use: a multidisciplinary modelling approach

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  • Steg, Linda
  • Geurs, Karst
  • Ras, Michiel

Abstract

Current transport models usually do not take motivational factors into account, and if they do, it is only implicitly. This paper presents a modelling approach aimed at explicitly examining the effects of motivational factors on present and future car use in the Netherlands. A car-use forecasting model for the years 2010 and 2020 was constructed on the basis of (i) a multinominal regression analysis, which revealed the importance of a motivational variable (viz., problem awareness) in explaining current car-use behaviour separate from socio-demographic and socio-economic variables, and (ii) a population model constructed to forecast the size and composition of the Dutch population. The results show that car use could be better explained by taking motivational factors explicitly into account, and that the level of car use forecast might change significantly if changes in motivations are assumed. The question on how motivational factors could be incorporated into current (Dutch) national transport models was also addressed.

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  • Steg, Linda & Geurs, Karst & Ras, Michiel, 2001. "The effects of motivational factors on car use: a multidisciplinary modelling approach," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 35(9), pages 789-806, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:35:y:2001:i:9:p:789-806
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    8. Choo, Sangho & Mokhtarian, Patricia L., 2004. "What type of vehicle do people drive? The role of attitude and lifestyle in influencing vehicle type choice," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt7vg1057g, University of California Transportation Center.
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    12. Shiftan, Yoram & Outwater, Maren L. & Zhou, Yushuang, 2008. "Transit market research using structural equation modeling and attitudinal market segmentation," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 186-195, May.
    13. Tapio, Petri, 2005. "Towards a theory of decoupling: degrees of decoupling in the EU and the case of road traffic in Finland between 1970 and 2001," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 137-151, March.
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