IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecosys/v35y2011i2p278-299.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Breeding one's own sub-prime crisis: The labour market effects on financial system stability

Author

Listed:
  • Daras, Tomasz
  • Tyrowicz, Joanna

Abstract

Crisis may spread through economy via the propagating mechanisms of the labour market - households becoming delinquent due to an initial unemployment shock may be unable to continue servicing obligations versus the financial system. With large debts - e.g. mortgages - such defaults pose a threat to financial system stability. In this paper we use the Polish household budget surveys to simulate the impact of changes in the labour market status of household members on the ability of the household to service its mortgage payments. The simulation results are subsequently aggregated to facilitate a macro-level interpretation of the findings. We simulate various scenarios of labour market deterioration. Finally, we also introduce a policy instrument into the simulations providing, in a fiscally neutral manner, additional stability to the financial system. Based on robustness checks, the findings seem to be reliable. The results suggest that even with shares of debtors among consumers as low as in Poland, the propagation mechanism may indeed result in a considerable threat, while the fiscally neutral instrument is effective and well-suited to be addressed in providing additional stability to the financial system.

Suggested Citation

  • Daras, Tomasz & Tyrowicz, Joanna, 2011. "Breeding one's own sub-prime crisis: The labour market effects on financial system stability," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 278-299, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecosys:v:35:y:2011:i:2:p:278-299
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0939-3625(10)00055-5
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mortensen, Dale & Pissarides, Christopher, 2011. "Job Creation and Job Destruction in the Theory of Unemployment," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 1, pages 1-19.
    2. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2007_005 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Laurent E. Calvet & John Y. Campbell & Paolo Sodini, 2009. "Measuring the Financial Sophistication of Households," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 393-398, May.
    4. Marco Caliendo & Sabine Kopeinig, 2008. "Some Practical Guidance For The Implementation Of Propensity Score Matching," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(1), pages 31-72, February.
    5. Strawinski, Pawel, 2008. "What drives the Unemployment Rate in Poland," MPRA Paper 11372, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Gary Gorton, 2009. "The Subprime Panic," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 15(1), pages 10-46, January.
    7. James Heckman & Hidehiko Ichimura & Jeffrey Smith & Petra Todd, 1998. "Characterizing Selection Bias Using Experimental Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(5), pages 1017-1098, September.
    8. George T Simigiannis & Panagiota Tzamourani, 2007. "Greek household indebtedness and financial stress: results from household survey data," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Proceedings of the IFC Conference on "Measuring the financial position of the household sector", Basel, 30-31 August 2006 - Volume 2, volume 26, pages 157-171, Bank for International Settlements.
    9. Blochlinger, Andreas & Leippold, Markus, 2006. "Economic benefit of powerful credit scoring," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 851-873, March.
    10. Robert Shimer, 2008. "The Probability of Finding a Job," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(2), pages 268-273, May.
    11. James J. Heckman & Hidehiko Ichimura & Petra Todd, 1998. "Matching As An Econometric Evaluation Estimator," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 65(2), pages 261-294.
    12. Gary Gorton, 2009. "The Subprime Panic," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 15(1), pages 10-46, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ivana Herceg & Danijel Nestić, 2012. "A New Cluster-Based Financial Vulnerability Indicator: The Analytical Concept and its Application for Stress Testing in a Post-Socialist Economy," wiiw Balkan Observatory Working Papers 100, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    2. Poghosyan, Tigran, 2011. "Slowdown of credit flows in Jordan in the wake of the global financial crisis: Supply or demand driven?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 562-573.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tomasz Daras & Joanna Tyrowicz, 2009. "Breeding Ones' Own Subprime Crisis," Working Papers 2009-01, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    2. Dettmann, E. & Becker, C. & Schmeißer, C., 2011. "Distance functions for matching in small samples," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 55(5), pages 1942-1960, May.
    3. Paul Attewell & David Monaghan, 2016. "How Many Credits Should an Undergraduate Take?," Research in Higher Education, Springer;Association for Institutional Research, vol. 57(6), pages 682-713, September.
    4. Gudibande, Rohan Ravindra & Jacob, Arun, 2020. "Minimum wages for domestic workers: impact evaluation of the Indian experience," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    5. Marco Caliendo, 2009. "Start‐up subsidies in East Germany: finally, a policy that works?," International Journal of Manpower, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 30(7), pages 625-647, November.
    6. Chambers, Jeff M. & Lint, Sandy & Thompson, Maggie G. & Carlson, Matthew W. & Graef, Michelle I., 2019. "Outcomes of the Iowa Parent Partner program evaluation: Stability of reunification and re-entry into foster care," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 1-1.
    7. Barbara Hofmann, 2008. "Work Incentives? Ex Post Effects of Unemployment Insurance Sanctions - Evidence from West Germany," CESifo Working Paper Series 2508, CESifo.
    8. Eliasson, Kent, 2006. "How Robust is the Evidence on the Returns to College Choice? Results Using Swedish Administrative Data," Umeå Economic Studies 692, Umeå University, Department of Economics.
    9. Claassen, Roger & Savage, Jeff & Loesch, Chuck & Breneman, Vince & Williams, Ryan & Mulvaney, Bill & Fairbanks, Tammy, 2017. "Additionality in Grassland Easements to Provide Migratory Bird Habitat in the Northern Plains," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 42(3), September.
    10. Patrick Christian Feihle & Jochen Lawrenz, 2017. "The Issuance of German SME Bonds and its Impact on Operating Performance," Schmalenbach Business Review, Springer;Schmalenbach-Gesellschaft, vol. 18(3), pages 227-259, August.
    11. Cichocki, Stanislaw & Tyrowicz, Joanna, 2010. "Shadow employment in post-transition--Is informal employment a matter of choice or no choice in Poland?," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 527-535, August.
    12. Duvendack, Maren & Palmer-Jones, Richard, 2011. "The microfinance of reproduction and the reproduction of microfinance: understanding the connections between microfinance, empowerment, contraception and fertility in Bangladesh in the 1990s," MPRA Paper 32384, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Magdalena Smyk & Joanna Tyrowicz & Lucas van der Velde, 2021. "A Cautionary Note on the Reliability of the Online Survey Data: The Case of Wage Indicator," Sociological Methods & Research, , vol. 50(1), pages 429-464, February.
    14. Feddersen, Arne & Maennig, Wolfgang, 2012. "Sectoral labour market effects of the 2006 FIFA World Cup," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(6), pages 860-869.
    15. Jones A.M & Rice N, 2009. "Econometric Evaluation of Health Policies," Health, Econometrics and Data Group (HEDG) Working Papers 09/09, HEDG, c/o Department of Economics, University of York.
    16. Maren Duvendack & Richard Palmer-Jones, 2012. "High Noon for Microfinance Impact Evaluations: Re-investigating the Evidence from Bangladesh," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(12), pages 1864-1880, December.
    17. Boehm, Martin, 2008. "Determining the impact of internet channel use on a customer's lifetime," Journal of Interactive Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 2-22.
    18. Claassen, Roger & Duquette, Eric, 2012. "Additionality in U.S. Agricultural Conservation Programs A Preliminary Analysis of New Data," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124721, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    19. Noélie Delahaie & Richard Duhautois, 2019. "Profit‐Sharing and Wages: An Empirical Analysis Using French Data between 2000 and 2007," British Journal of Industrial Relations, London School of Economics, vol. 57(1), pages 107-142, March.
    20. Joanna Tyrowicz & Stanisław Cichocki, 2011. "Employed unemployed? On shadow employment in transition," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 38(2), pages 259-281, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial sector stability Mortgages Labour market;

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • R20 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecosys:v:35:y:2011:i:2:p:278-299. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/osteide.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.