How Robust is the Evidence on the Returns to College Choice? Results Using Swedish Administrative Data

We estimate the causal effect on earnings of graduating from old universities rather than new universities/university colleges. The study is based on Swedish administrative data that is comparatively rich in terms of school grades, parental characteristics and other attributes. Despite the more favorable conditions at old universities in terms of factors related to college quality, we find no significant difference in estimated earnings between graduates from the two groups of colleges. This finding holds for male and female sub-samples covering all majors, as well as male and female sub-samples covering two broad fields of education. The results are robust with regard to different methods of propensity score matching and regression adjustment. The results furthermore indicate little sensitivity with regard to the empirical support in the data and alternative model specifications.