IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/econom/v216y2020i1p35-52.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A robust procedure to build dynamic factor models with cluster structure

Author

Listed:
  • Alonso, Andrés M.
  • Galeano, Pedro
  • Peña, Daniel

Abstract

Dynamic factor models provide a useful way to model large sets of time series. These data often have heterogeneity and cluster structure and the formulation and estimation of dynamic factor models should be adapted to these features. This article presents a procedure to fit Dynamic Factor Models with Cluster Structure (DFMCS), where some of the factors are global and others group-specific, to heterogeneous data that may include multivariate additive outliers and level shifts. The procedure starts with an initial cleaning of the times series from outlying effects. Then a first estimation of the possible factors is applied to the cleaned data and these factors are used to build the common component of each series. The groups are found by studying the joint dependency of these common components. Then, additional factors are estimated by using the series in each cluster and, finally, all the factors found are classified as global or group-specific. We show in a Monte Carlo study that the procedure works well and seems to be better than other alternatives in terms of estimation of factors and loadings as well as in terms of misclassification rates for the series. An example of an electricity market is presented to illustrate the advantages of cleaning for outliers and taking into account the cluster structure for understanding and forecasting.

Suggested Citation

  • Alonso, Andrés M. & Galeano, Pedro & Peña, Daniel, 2020. "A robust procedure to build dynamic factor models with cluster structure," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 216(1), pages 35-52.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:216:y:2020:i:1:p:35-52
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2020.01.004
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304407620300099
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jeconom.2020.01.004?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Forni, Mario & Hallin, Marc & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2005. "The Generalized Dynamic Factor Model: One-Sided Estimation and Forecasting," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 100, pages 830-840, September.
    2. Forni, Mario & Lippi, Marco, 2001. "The Generalized Dynamic Factor Model: Representation Theory," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(6), pages 1113-1141, December.
    3. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2002. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 191-221, January.
    4. Stéphane Bonhomme & Elena Manresa, 2015. "Grouped Patterns of Heterogeneity in Panel Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 83(3), pages 1147-1184, May.
    5. Bianco, Ana Maria, et al, 2001. "Outlier Detection in Regression Models with ARIMA Errors Using Robust Estimates," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(8), pages 565-579, December.
    6. Liangjun Su & Zhentao Shi & Peter C. B. Phillips, 2016. "Identifying Latent Structures in Panel Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 84, pages 2215-2264, November.
    7. Forni, Mario & Hallin, Marc & Lippi, Marco & Zaffaroni, Paolo, 2015. "Dynamic factor models with infinite-dimensional factor spaces: One-sided representations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 185(2), pages 359-371.
    8. Seung C. Ahn & Alex R. Horenstein, 2013. "Eigenvalue Ratio Test for the Number of Factors," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 81(3), pages 1203-1227, May.
    9. Jushan Bai & Kunpeng Li, 2016. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference for Approximate Factor Models of High Dimension," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 98(2), pages 298-309, May.
    10. Forni, Mario & Hallin, Marc & Lippi, Marco & Zaffaroni, Paolo, 2017. "Dynamic factor models with infinite-dimensional factor space: Asymptotic analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 199(1), pages 74-92.
    11. Lin Chang-Ching & Ng Serena, 2012. "Estimation of Panel Data Models with Parameter Heterogeneity when Group Membership is Unknown," Journal of Econometric Methods, De Gruyter, vol. 1(1), pages 1-14, August.
    12. Mario Forni & Marc Hallin & Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2000. "The Generalized Dynamic-Factor Model: Identification And Estimation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(4), pages 540-554, November.
    13. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    14. Lawrence Hubert & Phipps Arabie, 1985. "Comparing partitions," Journal of Classification, Springer;The Classification Society, vol. 2(1), pages 193-218, December.
    15. Andrés M. Alonso & Guadalupe Bastos & Carolina García-Martos, 2016. "Electricity Price Forecasting by Averaging Dynamic Factor Models," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(8), pages 1-21, July.
    16. Tomohiro Ando & Jushan Bai, 2017. "Clustering Huge Number of Financial Time Series: A Panel Data Approach With High-Dimensional Predictors and Factor Structures," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 112(519), pages 1182-1198, July.
    17. Pilar Poncela & Esther Ruiz, 2016. "Small- Versus Big-Data Factor Extraction in Dynamic Factor Models: An Empirical Assessment," Advances in Econometrics, in: Dynamic Factor Models, volume 35, pages 401-434, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    18. Regis Barnichon & Geert Mesters, 2018. "On the Demographic Adjustment of Unemployment," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 100(2), pages 219-231, May.
    19. Onatski, Alexei, 2012. "Asymptotics of the principal components estimator of large factor models with weakly influential factors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 168(2), pages 244-258.
    20. Lam, Clifford & Yao, Qiwei, 2012. "Factor modeling for high-dimensional time series: inference for the number of factors," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 45684, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    21. Michael W. Robbins & Thomas J. Fisher, 2015. "Cross-Correlation Matrices for Tests of Independence and Causality Between Two Multivariate Time Series," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(4), pages 459-473, October.
    22. Stock J.H. & Watson M.W., 2002. "Forecasting Using Principal Components From a Large Number of Predictors," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 97, pages 1167-1179, December.
    23. Galeano, Pedro & Pena, Daniel & Tsay, Ruey S., 2006. "Outlier Detection in Multivariate Time Series by Projection Pursuit," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 101, pages 654-669, June.
    24. J. Cuesta-Albertos & M. Febrero-Bande, 2010. "A simple multiway ANOVA for functional data," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 19(3), pages 537-557, November.
    25. Hallin, Marc & Liska, Roman, 2011. "Dynamic factors in the presence of blocks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 163(1), pages 29-41, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zhaoxing Gao & Ruey S. Tsay, 2021. "Divide-and-Conquer: A Distributed Hierarchical Factor Approach to Modeling Large-Scale Time Series Data," Papers 2103.14626, arXiv.org.
    2. Trucíos, Carlos & Mazzeu, João H.G. & Hotta, Luiz K. & Valls Pereira, Pedro L. & Hallin, Marc, 2021. "Robustness and the general dynamic factor model with infinite-dimensional space: Identification, estimation, and forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1520-1534.
    3. Matteo Barigozzi & Marc Hallin, 2023. "Dynamic Factor Models: a Genealogy," Papers 2310.17278, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2024.
    4. Camacho, Maximo & Lopez-Buenache, German, 2023. "Factor models for large and incomplete data sets with unknown group structure," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1205-1220.
    5. Blasques, Francisco & Hoogerkamp, Meindert Heres & Koopman, Siem Jan & van de Werve, Ilka, 2021. "Dynamic factor models with clustered loadings: Forecasting education flows using unemployment data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1426-1441.
    6. Camacho, Maximo & Caro Navarro, Ángela & Peña, Daniel, 2020. "What do international energy prices have in common after taking into account the key drivers?," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 31647, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    7. Camacho, Maximo & Caro, Angela & Peña, Daniel, 2023. "What drives industrial energy prices?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Poncela, Pilar & Ruiz, Esther & Miranda, Karen, 2021. "Factor extraction using Kalman filter and smoothing: This is not just another survey," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1399-1425.
    2. Matteo Barigozzi & Marc Hallin, 2023. "Dynamic Factor Models: a Genealogy," Papers 2310.17278, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2024.
    3. Barigozzi, Matteo & Trapani, Lorenzo, 2020. "Sequential testing for structural stability in approximate factor models," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 130(8), pages 5149-5187.
    4. Philipp Gersing & Christoph Rust & Manfred Deistler, 2023. "Weak Factors are Everywhere," Papers 2307.10067, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2024.
    5. Lippi, Marco & Deistler, Manfred & Anderson, Brian, 2023. "High-Dimensional Dynamic Factor Models: A Selective Survey and Lines of Future Research," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 3-16.
    6. Jianqing Fan & Kunpeng Li & Yuan Liao, 2020. "Recent Developments on Factor Models and its Applications in Econometric Learning," Papers 2009.10103, arXiv.org.
    7. Forni, Mario & Hallin, Marc & Lippi, Marco & Zaffaroni, Paolo, 2017. "Dynamic factor models with infinite-dimensional factor space: Asymptotic analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 199(1), pages 74-92.
    8. Matteo Barigozzi & Marc Hallin, 2017. "A network analysis of the volatility of high dimensional financial series," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 66(3), pages 581-605, April.
    9. Denis Chetverikov & Elena Manresa, 2022. "Spectral and post-spectral estimators for grouped panel data models," Papers 2212.13324, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2022.
    10. Matteo Barigozzi & Marco Lippi & Matteo Luciani, 2014. "Dynamic Factor Models, Cointegration and Error Correction Mechanisms," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2014-14, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    11. Matteo Barigozzi & Marc Hallin, 2015. "Networks, Dynamic Factors, and the Volatility Analysis of High-Dimensional Financial Series," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2015-34, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    12. Fan, Jianqing & Ke, Yuan & Liao, Yuan, 2021. "Augmented factor models with applications to validating market risk factors and forecasting bond risk premia," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 222(1), pages 269-294.
    13. Trucíos, Carlos & Mazzeu, João H.G. & Hotta, Luiz K. & Valls Pereira, Pedro L. & Hallin, Marc, 2021. "Robustness and the general dynamic factor model with infinite-dimensional space: Identification, estimation, and forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1520-1534.
    14. Barigozzi, Matteo & Hallin, Marc, 2017. "Generalized dynamic factor models and volatilities: estimation and forecasting," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 201(2), pages 307-321.
    15. Catherine Doz & Peter Fuleky, 2019. "Dynamic Factor Models," PSE Working Papers halshs-02262202, HAL.
    16. Smeekes, Stephan & Wijler, Etienne, 2018. "Macroeconomic forecasting using penalized regression methods," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 408-430.
    17. Francisco Corona & Pedro Orraca, 2019. "Remittances in Mexico and their unobserved components," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(8), pages 1047-1066, November.
    18. Matteo Barigozzi & Marco Lippi & Matteo Luciani, 2016. "Non-Stationary Dynamic Factor Models for Large Datasets," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-024, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    19. Catherine Doz & Peter Fuleky, 2019. "Dynamic Factor Models," Working Papers 2019-4, University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization, University of Hawaii at Manoa.
    20. Catherine Doz & Peter Fuleky, 2019. "Dynamic Factor Models," Working Papers halshs-02262202, HAL.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Clustering time series; Dependency measures; Multivariate additive outliers; Multivariate level shifts; Principal components;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:216:y:2020:i:1:p:35-52. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jeconom .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.