IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecolet/v124y2014i1p140-142.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Is the ‘euro effect’ on trade so small after all? New evidence using gravity equations with panel cointegration techniques

Author

Listed:
  • Camarero, Mariam
  • Gómez, Estrella
  • Tamarit, Cecilio

Abstract

In this paper we present new evidence on the aggregate effect of the euro on trade using data for 26 OECD countries for the period 1967–2008. We strive to fill the gaps present in the previous literature through a second-generation panel cointegration tests and estimators that account for both cross-section dependence in the data and discontinuities in the deterministic and the cointegrating vector in the time dimension. This approach allows us to put the adoption of the euro by EMU members in historical perspective. We argue that the creation of the EMU is best interpreted as a progression of policy changes. Once we control for all of them the euro effect decreases considerably but is still significant.

Suggested Citation

  • Camarero, Mariam & Gómez, Estrella & Tamarit, Cecilio, 2014. "Is the ‘euro effect’ on trade so small after all? New evidence using gravity equations with panel cointegration techniques," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 124(1), pages 140-142.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:124:y:2014:i:1:p:140-142
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2014.04.033
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165176514001670
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.econlet.2014.04.033?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Badi H. Baltagi & Peter Egger & Michael Pfaffermayr, 2014. "Panel Data Gravity Models of International Trade," CESifo Working Paper Series 4616, CESifo.
    2. Bergin, Paul R. & Lin, Ching-Yi, 2012. "The dynamic effects of a currency union on trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 191-204.
    3. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 265-312.
    4. Berger, Helge & Nitsch, Volker, 2008. "Zooming out: The trade effect of the euro in historical perspective," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(8), pages 1244-1260, December.
    5. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2021. "General diagnostic tests for cross-sectional dependence in panels," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(1), pages 13-50, January.
    6. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2004. "A PANIC Attack on Unit Roots and Cointegration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(4), pages 1127-1177, July.
    7. Baltagi, Badi H. & Egger, Peter & Pfaffermayr, Michael, 2003. "A generalized design for bilateral trade flow models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 80(3), pages 391-397, September.
    8. Bai, Jushan & Kao, Chihwa & Ng, Serena, 2009. "Panel cointegration with global stochastic trends," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 149(1), pages 82-99, April.
    9. Bai, Jushan & Ng, Serena, 2006. "Evaluating latent and observed factors in macroeconomics and finance," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 507-537.
    10. Maurice J. G. Bun & Franc J. G. M. Klaassen, 2007. "The Euro Effect on Trade is not as Large as Commonly Thought," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 69(4), pages 473-496, August.
    11. Gil-Pareja, Salvador & Llorca-Vivero, Rafael & Martínez-Serrano, José Antonio, 2008. "Trade effects of monetary agreements: Evidence for OECD countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(4), pages 733-755, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mariam Camarero & Estrella Gómez-Herrera & Cecilio Tamarit, 2018. "New Evidence on Trade and FDI: how Large is the Euro Effect?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 29(2), pages 451-467, April.
    2. Md. Rabiul Islam & Jakob B. Madsen, 2018. "Knowledge diffusion and agricultural development," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 49(2), pages 265-276, March.
    3. Campbell, Douglas L. & Chentsov, Aleksandr, 2017. "Breaking Badly: The Currency Union Effect on Trade," MPRA Paper 79973, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Ahlfeldt, Gabriel M. & Wendland, Nicolai, 2016. "The spatial decay in commuting probabilities: Employment potential vs. commuting gravity," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 125-129.
    5. Bernard NGUEKENG & Jean-Baptiste Achille NSOE NKOULI & Iréné TIAKO & Augustin NGOMSI, 2021. "Les effets du capital humain sur l’intégration commerciale en Afrique subsaharienne," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 54, pages 101-116.
    6. Gabriel Felbermayr & Jasmin Katrin Gröschl & Inga Heiland, 2018. "Undoing Europe in a New Quantitative Trade Model," ifo Working Paper Series 250, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    7. Campbell, Douglas L. & Chentsov, Aleksandr, 2023. "Breaking badly: The currency union effect on trade," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    8. Mignamissi, Dieudonné, 2020. "The CFA Franc effect on trade," MPRA Paper 99018, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Esposito, Piero, 2017. "Trade creation, trade diversion and imbalances in the EMU," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 462-472.
    10. Gabriel Felbermayr & Jasmin Gröschl & Thomas Steinwachs, 2018. "The Trade Effects of Border Controls: Evidence from the European Schengen Agreement," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 56(2), pages 335-351, March.
    11. Mariam Camarero & Estrella Gómez & Cecilio Tamarit, 2013. "EMU and Trade Revisited: Long-Run Evidence Using Gravity Equations," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(9), pages 1146-1164, September.
    12. Gabriel Felbermayr & Clemens Fuest & Jasmin Katrin Gröschl & Daniel Stöhlker, 2017. "Economic Effects of Brexit on the European Economy," EconPol Policy Reports 4, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    13. Andrew K. Rose, 2017. "Why do Estimates of the EMU Effect on Trade Vary so Much?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 28(1), pages 1-18, February.
    14. Mohd Hussain Kunroo & Irfan Ahmad Sofi & Naushad Ali Azad, 2016. "Trade implications of the Euro in EMU countries: a panel gravity analysis," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 43(2), pages 391-413, May.
    15. Rongji Huang & Tengfei Nie & Yangguang Zhu & Shaofu Du, 2020. "Forecasting Trade Potential Between China and the Five Central Asian Countries: Under the Background of Belt and Road Initiative," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 55(4), pages 1233-1247, April.
    16. Lavinia Rotili, 2014. "The Euro effects on intermediate and final exports," Working Papers 7/14, Sapienza University of Rome, DISS.
    17. Thomas Steinwachs, 2019. "Geography Matters: Spatial Dimensions of Trade, Migration and Growth," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 81.
    18. Mariam Camarero & Estrella Gómez & Cecilio Tamarit, 2012. "EMU and intra-European trade. Long-run evidence using gravity equations," ThE Papers 10/25, Department of Economic Theory and Economic History of the University of Granada..

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mariam Camarero & Estrella Gómez & Cecilio Tamarit, 2013. "EMU and Trade Revisited: Long-Run Evidence Using Gravity Equations," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(9), pages 1146-1164, September.
    2. Mariam Camarero & Estrella Gómez & Cecilio Tamarit, 2012. "The euro impact on trade. Long run evidence with structural breaks," Working Papers 1209, Department of Applied Economics II, Universidad de Valencia.
    3. Mariam Camarero & Estrella Gómez & Cecilio Tamarit, 2012. "EMU and intra-European trade. Long-run evidence using gravity equations," ThE Papers 10/25, Department of Economic Theory and Economic History of the University of Granada..
    4. Cecilio R. Tamarit Escalona & Estrella Gómez, 2011. "The euro effect on trade: evidence in gravity equations using panel cointegration techniques," Working Papers. Serie EC 2011-07, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
    5. Mirza, Faisal Mehmood & Sinha, Avik & Khan, Javeria Rehman & Kalugina, Olga A. & Zafar, Muhammad Wasif, 2022. "Impact of Energy Efficiency on CO2 Emissions: Empirical Evidence from Developing Countries," MPRA Paper 111923, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2022.
    6. Selien De Schryder and Gert Peersman, 2015. "The U.S. Dollar Exchange Rate and the Demand for Oil," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3).
    7. Zafar, Muhammad Wasif & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Hou, Fujun & Sinha, Avik, 2018. "¬¬¬¬¬¬From Nonrenewable to Renewable Energy and Its Impact on Economic Growth: Silver Line of Research & Development Expenditures in APEC Countries," MPRA Paper 90611, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 Dec 2018.
    8. Andrew K. Rose, 2017. "Why do Estimates of the EMU Effect on Trade Vary so Much?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 28(1), pages 1-18, February.
    9. Anindya Banerjee & Josep Lluís Carrion-i-Silvestre, 2017. "Testing for Panel Cointegration Using Common Correlated Effects Estimators," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(4), pages 610-636, July.
    10. Tolga Omay & Mubariz Hasanov & Asli Yuksel & Aydin Yuksel, 2016. "A Note on the Examination of the Fisher Hypothesis by Using Panel Co-Integration Tests with Break," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 13-26, June.
    11. Markus Eberhardt & Francis Teal, 2011. "Econometrics For Grumblers: A New Look At The Literature On Cross‐Country Growth Empirics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(1), pages 109-155, February.
    12. Sinha, Avik & Gupta, Monika & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Sengupta, Tuhin, 2019. "Impact of Corruption in Public Sector on Environmental Quality: Implications for Sustainability in BRICS and Next 11 Countries," MPRA Paper 94357, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 05 Jun 2019.
    13. Markus Eberhardt & Francis Teal, 2008. "Modeling Technology and Technological Change in Manufacturing: How do Countries Differ?," CSAE Working Paper Series 2008-12, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    14. Everaert, Gerdie, 2014. "A panel analysis of the fisher effect with an unobserved I(1) world real interest rate," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 198-210.
    15. Salifou Ouedraogo & Hamidou Sawadogo, 2022. "Financial development, financial structure and economic growth in the Sub‐Saharan African countries," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 3139-3162, July.
    16. Zafar, Muhammad Wasif & Zaidi, Syed Anees Haider & Sinha, Avik & Gedikli, Ayfer & Hou, Fujun, 2019. "The role of stock market and banking sector development, and renewable energy consumption in carbon emissions: Insights from G-7 and N-11 countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 427-436.
    17. Douglas L. Campbell & Aleksandr Chentsov, 2017. "Breaking Badly: The Currency Union Effect on Trade," Working Papers w0241, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR).
    18. Zheng Fang & Bihong Huang & Zhuoxiang Yang, 2020. "Trade openness and the environmental Kuznets curve: Evidence from Chinese cities," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(10), pages 2622-2649, October.
    19. Omay, Tolga & Hasanov, Mübariz & Uçar, Nuri, 2014. "Energy consumption and economic growth: Evidence from nonlinear panel cointegration and causality tests," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 34(2), pages 36-55.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Gravity models; Trade; Panel cointegration; Common factors; Structural breaks; Cross-section dependence;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:124:y:2014:i:1:p:140-142. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolet .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.