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Potential for significant reductions in dropout rates: Analysis of an entire 3rd grade state cohort

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  • Cratty, Dorothyjean

Abstract

Nineteen percent of 1997–98 North Carolina 3rd graders were observed to drop out of high school. A series of logits predict probabilities of dropping out on determinants such as math and reading test scores, absenteeism, suspension, and retention, at the following grade levels: 3rd, 5th, 8th, and 9th. The same cohort and variables are used to estimate benefits to the 15,737 students admitted to a special program ostensibly for academically and intellectually gifted children. I estimate the probability of admission for schoolmates with similar ability in math and reading to be substantially higher for those from upper income households. Finally, I conclude that extending similar resources to an equal number of high-risk students, as determined by their 3rd grade predicted probabilities, would lead to a 25% reduction in the total cohort dropout rate, and that even dividing existing resources between the two groups could cut dropout rates by half that.

Suggested Citation

  • Cratty, Dorothyjean, 2012. "Potential for significant reductions in dropout rates: Analysis of an entire 3rd grade state cohort," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 644-662.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecoedu:v:31:y:2012:i:5:p:644-662
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econedurev.2012.04.001
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. McGee, Andrew, 2011. "Skills, standards, and disabilities: How youth with learning disabilities fare in high school and beyond," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 109-129, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Figlio, D. & Karbownik, K. & Salvanes, K.G., 2016. "Education Research and Administrative Data," Handbook of the Economics of Education, Elsevier.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Educational economics; Human capital; Resource allocation; State and federal aid;

    JEL classification:

    • C81 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Microeconomic Data; Data Access
    • I21 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Analysis of Education
    • I24 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Education and Inequality
    • I28 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Government Policy
    • H52 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Education
    • H57 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Procurement

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