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Potential for significant reductions in dropout rates: Analysis of an entire 3rd grade state cohort

  • Cratty, Dorothyjean
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    Nineteen percent of 1997–98 North Carolina 3rd graders were observed to drop out of high school. A series of logits predict probabilities of dropping out on determinants such as math and reading test scores, absenteeism, suspension, and retention, at the following grade levels: 3rd, 5th, 8th, and 9th. The same cohort and variables are used to estimate benefits to the 15,737 students admitted to a special program ostensibly for academically and intellectually gifted children. I estimate the probability of admission for schoolmates with similar ability in math and reading to be substantially higher for those from upper income households. Finally, I conclude that extending similar resources to an equal number of high-risk students, as determined by their 3rd grade predicted probabilities, would lead to a 25% reduction in the total cohort dropout rate, and that even dividing existing resources between the two groups could cut dropout rates by half that.

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    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0272775712000313
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    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economics of Education Review.

    Volume (Year): 31 (2012)
    Issue (Month): 5 ()
    Pages: 644-662

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:ecoedu:v:31:y:2012:i:5:p:644-662
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/econedurev

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    1. Charles T. Clotfelter & Helen F. Ladd & Jacob L. Vigdor, 2006. "Teacher-Student Matching and the Assessment of Teacher Effectiveness," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 41(4).
    2. Philip J. Cook & Robert MacCoun & Clara Muschkin & Jacob Vigdor, 2008. "The negative impacts of starting middle school in sixth grade," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 104-121.
    3. Magnuson, Katherine A. & Ruhm, Christopher & Waldfogel, Jane, 2007. "Does prekindergarten improve school preparation and performance?," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 33-51, February.
    4. McGee, Andrew, 2011. "Skills, standards, and disabilities: How youth with learning disabilities fare in high school and beyond," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 109-129, February.
    5. Boozer, Michael & Rouse, Cecilia, 2001. "Intraschool Variation in Class Size: Patterns and Implications," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 163-189, July.
    6. Eide, Eric R. & Showalter, Mark H., 2001. "The effect of grade retention on educational and labor market outcomes," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(6), pages 563-576, December.
    7. Greene, Jay P. & Winters, Marcus A., 2009. "The effects of exemptions to Florida's test-based promotion policy: Who is retained?: Who benefits academically?," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 135-142, February.
    8. Kelly Bedard & Chau Do, 2005. "Are Middle Schools More Effective?: The Impact of School Structure on Student Outcomes," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 40(3).
    9. Rumberger, Russell W. & Lamb, Stephen P., 2003. "The early employment and further education experiences of high school dropouts: a comparative study of the United States and Australia," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 353-366, August.
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