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Current account balances and output volatility

  • Elgin, Ceyhun
  • Kuzubas, Tolga Umut

In this paper, we examine the empirical relationship between current account balance and output volatility in a panel data framework using annual data from 185 countries over the period from 1950 to 2010. In our static panel data analysis, we find that a larger current account deficit is associated with higher output volatility, particularly for emerging market economies. Our analysis reveals that this association strongly interacts with GDP per-capita. In order to account for possible endogeneity and feedback effects, we also employ a Panel-VAR framework and show that output volatility gives a significant positive response to a shock in the current account balance and a negative response to the shocks on GDP per-capita capita.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economic Modelling.

Volume (Year): 33 (2013)
Issue (Month): C ()
Pages: 381-387

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:33:y:2013:i:c:p:381-387
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411

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  1. Joakim Westerlund, 2007. "Testing for Error Correction in Panel Data," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 69(6), pages 709-748, December.
  2. Lane, Philip R. & Pels, Barbara, 2012. "Current Account Imbalances in Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 8958, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  5. Anderson, T. W. & Hsiao, Cheng, 1982. "Formulation and estimation of dynamic models using panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 47-82, January.
  6. Menzie D. Chinn & Eswar S. Prasad, 2000. "Medium-Term Determinants of Current Accounts in Industrial and Developing Countries: An Empirical Exploration," NBER Working Papers 7581, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Peter Isard & Hamid Faruqee, 1998. "Exchange Rate Assessment: Extension of the Macroeconomic Balance Approach," IMF Occasional Papers 167, International Monetary Fund.
  8. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 265-312.
  9. Aguiar, Mark & Gopinath, Gita, 2007. "Emerging Market Business Cycles: The Cycle is the Trend," Scholarly Articles 11988098, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  10. Mark Aguiar & Gita Gopinath, 2007. "Emerging Market Business Cycles: The Cycle Is the Trend," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115, pages 69-102.
  11. MichaƂ Brzozowski & Sadananda Prusty, 2011. "Impact of GDP volatility on current account balances," Working Papers 2011-02, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
  12. Love, Inessa & Zicchino, Lea, 2006. "Financial development and dynamic investment behavior: Evidence from panel VAR," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 190-210, May.
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