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Current account balances and output volatility


  • Elgin, Ceyhun
  • Kuzubas, Tolga Umut


In this paper, we examine the empirical relationship between current account balance and output volatility in a panel data framework using annual data from 185 countries over the period from 1950 to 2010. In our static panel data analysis, we find that a larger current account deficit is associated with higher output volatility, particularly for emerging market economies. Our analysis reveals that this association strongly interacts with GDP per-capita. In order to account for possible endogeneity and feedback effects, we also employ a Panel-VAR framework and show that output volatility gives a significant positive response to a shock in the current account balance and a negative response to the shocks on GDP per-capita capita.

Suggested Citation

  • Elgin, Ceyhun & Kuzubas, Tolga Umut, 2013. "Current account balances and output volatility," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 381-387.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:33:y:2013:i:c:p:381-387 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2013.04.032

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Chinn, Menzie D. & Prasad, Eswar S., 2003. "Medium-term determinants of current accounts in industrial and developing countries: an empirical exploration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 47-76, January.
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    4. Aguiar, Mark & Gopinath, Gita, 2007. "Emerging Market Business Cycles: The Cycle is the Trend," Scholarly Articles 11988098, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    5. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 265-312.
    6. Joakim Westerlund, 2007. "Testing for Error Correction in Panel Data," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 69(6), pages 709-748, December.
    7. Love, Inessa & Zicchino, Lea, 2006. "Financial development and dynamic investment behavior: Evidence from panel VAR," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 190-210, May.
    8. Mark Aguiar & Gita Gopinath, 2007. "Emerging Market Business Cycles: The Cycle Is the Trend," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115, pages 69-102.
    9. Philip R. Lane & Barbara Pels, 2012. "Current Account Imbalances in Europe," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp397, IIIS.
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    Cited by:

    1. Tiryaki, S. Tolga, 2014. "Sectoral asymmetries in a small open economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 465-475.

    More about this item


    Current account balances; Business cycle volatility; Panel data;

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies


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