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Vehicle ownership restrictions and fertility in Beijing

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  • Liu, Antung A.
  • Linn, Joshua
  • Qin, Ping
  • Yang, Jun

Abstract

This paper studies the effects of vehicle ownership restrictions on fertility. We examine Beijing's license plate lottery system, which began in 2011 and restricts the number of new and used vehicles people can obtain. Leveraging a randomized survey, we show that one unintended consequence of the vehicle restrictions has been to reduce the number of births in the households of lottery entrants between 2011 and 2014. The vehicle restrictions reduce births in households of lottery participants by 35 percent, implying a remarkable 6 percent reduction in births across the entire city. We report changes in household structure and age composition consistent with this change in births.

Suggested Citation

  • Liu, Antung A. & Linn, Joshua & Qin, Ping & Yang, Jun, 2018. "Vehicle ownership restrictions and fertility in Beijing," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 85-96.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:135:y:2018:i:c:p:85-96
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2018.07.005
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    Cited by:

    1. Hong Liu & Lili Liu & Fei Wang, 2023. "Housing wealth and fertility: evidence from China," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 36(1), pages 359-395, January.
    2. Zhuge, Chengxiang & Wei, Binru & Shao, Chunfu & Shan, Yuli & Dong, Chunjiao, 2020. "The role of the license plate lottery policy in the adoption of Electric Vehicles: A case study of Beijing," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    3. Enrico Miglino & Nicolás Navarrete H. & Gonzalo Navarrete H. & Pablo Navarrete H., 2023. "Health Effects of Increasing Income for the Elderly: Evidence from a Chilean Pension Program," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 15(1), pages 370-393, February.
    4. Suchi Kapoor Malhotra & Howard White & Nina Ashley O. Dela Cruz & Ashrita Saran & John Eyers & Denny John & Ella Beveridge & Nina Blöndal, 2021. "Studies of the effectiveness of transport sector interventions in low‐ and middle‐income countries: An evidence and gap map," Campbell Systematic Reviews, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 17(4), December.
    5. Meng, Lina & Peng, Lu & Zhou, Yinggang, 2023. "Do housing booms reduce fertility intentions? Evidence from the new two-child policy in China," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    6. Yang, Jun & Liu, Antung A. & Qin, Ping & Linn, Joshua, 2020. "The effect of vehicle ownership restrictions on travel behavior: Evidence from the Beijing license plate lottery," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).

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