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The role of the license plate lottery policy in the adoption of Electric Vehicles: A case study of Beijing

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  • Zhuge, Chengxiang
  • Wei, Binru
  • Shao, Chunfu
  • Shan, Yuli
  • Dong, Chunjiao

Abstract

Policy is an influential factor to the purchase and usage of Electric Vehicles (EVs). This paper is focused on the license plate lottery policy, a typical vehicle purchase restriction in Beijing, China. An agent-based spatial integrated urban model, SelfSim-EV, is employed to investigate how the policy may influence the uptake of EVs over time at the individual level. Two types of “what-if” scenario were set up to explore how the methods to allocate the vehicle purchase permits and the number of permits might influence the EV market expansion from 2016 to 2020. The results suggested that 1) both the allocation methods and the number of purchase permits could heavily influence the uptake of EVs and further its impacts on vehicular emissions, energy consumption and urban infrastructures; 2) compared to the baseline, both scenarios got significantly different spatial distributions of vehicle owners, transport facilities, vehicular emissions and charging demand at the multiple resolutions; 3) SelfSim-EV was found as a useful tool to quantify the nonlinear relationships between the increase of EV purchasers and the demand for transport facilities and electricity, and also to capture some unexpected results coming out from the interactions in the complex dynamic urban system.

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  • Zhuge, Chengxiang & Wei, Binru & Shao, Chunfu & Shan, Yuli & Dong, Chunjiao, 2020. "The role of the license plate lottery policy in the adoption of Electric Vehicles: A case study of Beijing," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:139:y:2020:i:c:s0301421520300859
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2020.111328
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    Cited by:

    1. Lijing Zhu & Jingzhou Wang & Arash Farnoosh & Xunzhang Pan, 2021. "A Game-Theory Analysis of Electric Vehicle Adoption in Beijing under License Plate Control Policy," Working Papers hal-03500766, HAL.
    2. Liu, Junbei & Zhuge, Chengxiang & Tang, Justin Hayse Chiwing G. & Meng, Meng & Zhang, Jie, 2022. "A spatial agent-based joint model of electric vehicle and vehicle-to-grid adoption: A case of Beijing," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 310(C).
    3. Lu, Tianwei & Yao, Enjian & Jin, Fanglei & Yang, Yang, 2022. "Analysis of incentive policies for electric vehicle adoptions after the abolishment of purchase subsidy policy," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PB).
    4. Konstantina Anastasiadou & Nikolaos Gavanas, 2022. "State-of-the-Art Review of the Key Factors Affecting Electric Vehicle Adoption by Consumers," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(24), pages 1-23, December.
    5. Junze Zhu & Hongzhi Guan & Mingyang Hao & Zhengtao Qin & Ange Wang, 2021. "“License Plate Lottery”: Why Are People So Keen to Participate in It?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(23), pages 1-16, December.
    6. Zhu, Lijing & Wang, Jingzhou & Farnoosh, Arash & Pan, Xunzhang, 2022. "A game-theory analysis of electric vehicle adoption in Beijing under license plate control policy," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 244(PA).
    7. Mehdizadeh, Milad & Nordfjaern, Trond & Klöckner, Christian A., 2022. "A systematic review of the agent-based modelling/simulation paradigm in mobility transition," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    8. Yang, Xiong & Zhuge, Chengxiang & Shao, Chunfu & Huang, Yuantan & Hayse Chiwing G. Tang, Justin & Sun, Mingdong & Wang, Pinxi & Wang, Shiqi, 2022. "Characterizing mobility patterns of private electric vehicle users with trajectory data," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 321(C).
    9. Yao, Xusheng & Ma, Shoufeng & Bai, Yin & Jia, Ning, 2022. "When are new energy vehicle incentives effective? Empirical evidence from 88 pilot cities in China," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 207-224.
    10. Sascha von Behren & Maximilian Turek & Lukas Barthelmes & Hanna Scholta & Frank Hansen & Martin Kagerbauer & Christine Eisenmann, 2023. "Decoding Urban Archetypes: Exploring Mobility-Related Homogeneity among Cities," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(19), pages 1-23, September.
    11. Xian, Yujiao & Wang, Qian & Fan, Wenrong & Da, Yabin & Fan, Jing-Li, 2022. "The impact of different incentive policies on new energy vehicle demand in China's gigantic cities," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    12. Wang, Shengyou & Zhuge, Chengxiang & Shao, Chunfu & Wang, Pinxi & Yang, Xiong & Wang, Shiqi, 2023. "Short-term electric vehicle charging demand prediction: A deep learning approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 340(C).
    13. Hu, Xianfeng & Wang, Shanyong & Zhou, Rongting & Gao, Lan & Zhu, Zujun, 2023. "Policy driven or consumer trait driven? Unpacking the EVs purchase intention of consumers from the policy and consumer trait perspective," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    14. Wang, Xiao-Wu & Cao, Yu-Mei & Zhang, Ning, 2021. "The influences of incentive policy perceptions and consumer social attributes on battery electric vehicle purchase intentions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).

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