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Can minimum wages cause a big push? Evidence from Indonesia

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  • Magruder, Jeremy R.

Abstract

Big Push models suggest that local product demand can create multiple labor market equilibria: one featuring high wages, formalization, and high demand and one with low wages, informality, and low demand. I demonstrate that minimum wages may coordinate development at the high wage equilibrium. Using data from 1990s Indonesia, where minimum wages increased in a varied way, I develop a difference in spatial differences estimator which weakens the common trend assumption of difference in differences. Estimation reveals strong trends in support of a big push: formal employment increases and informal employment decreases in response to the minimum wage. Local product demand also increases, and this formalization occurs only in the non-tradable, industrializable industries suggested by the model (while employment in tradable and non-industrializable industries also conforms to model predictions).

Suggested Citation

  • Magruder, Jeremy R., 2013. "Can minimum wages cause a big push? Evidence from Indonesia," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(1), pages 48-62.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:100:y:2013:i:1:p:48-62
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2012.07.003
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    Cited by:

    1. Sim, Armand & Suryadarma, Daniel & Suryahadi, Asep, 2017. "The Consequences of Child Market Work on the Growth of Human Capital," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 144-155.
    2. Haroon Bhorat & Ravi Kanbur & Benjamin Stanwix, 2017. "Minimum Wages in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Primer," World Bank Research Observer, World Bank Group, vol. 32(1), pages 21-74.
    3. Wrona, Jens & Kreickemeier, Udo, 2016. "Industrialisation and the Big Push in a Global Economy," Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145707, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    4. Davidescu, Adriana Anamaria & Schneider, Friedrich, 2017. "Nature of the Relationship between Minimum Wage and the Shadow Economy Size: An Empirical Analysis for the Case of Romania," IZA Discussion Papers 11247, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    5. Matthew Collin & Justin Sandefur & Andrew Zeitlin, 2015. "Falling Off the Map: The Impact of Formalizing (Some) Informal Settlements in Tanzania," CSAE Working Paper Series 2015-09, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    6. Matthew Collin, 2013. "Tribe or title? Ethnic enclaves and the demand for formal land tenure in a Tanzanian slum," CSAE Working Paper Series 2013-12, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    7. Obeng, Samuel Kwabena, 2015. "An empirical analysis of the relationship between minimum wage, investment and economic growth in Ghana," MPRA Paper 65674, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Ximena Del Carpio & Ha Nguyen & Laura Pabon & Liang Wang, 2015. "Do minimum wages affect employment? Evidence from the manufacturing sector in Indonesia," IZA Journal of Labor & Development, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 4(1), pages 1-30, December.
    9. repec:eee:wdevel:v:97:y:2017:i:c:p:79-101 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Maike Hohberg & Jann Lay, 2015. "The impact of minimum wages on informal and formal labor market outcomes: evidence from Indonesia," IZA Journal of Labor & Development, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 4(1), pages 1-25, December.
    11. Alexander Muravyev & Aleksey Oshchepkov, 2013. "Minimum wages and labor market outcomes: evidence from the emerging economy of Russia," HSE Working papers WP BRP 29/EC/2013, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    12. Allegretto, Sylvia A., 2013. "Waiting for Change: Is it Time to Increase the $2.13 Subminimum Wage?," Institute for Research on Labor and Employment, Working Paper Series qt3zx9v0zk, Institute of Industrial Relations, UC Berkeley.
    13. Muravyev, Alexander & Oshchepkov, Aleksey, 2013. "Minimum Wages, Unemployment and Informality: Evidence from Panel Data on Russian Regions," IZA Discussion Papers 7878, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    14. Allegretto, Sylvia & Dube, Arindrajit & Reich, Michael & Zipperer, Ben, 2013. "Credible Research Designs for Minimum Wage Studies," Institute for Research on Labor and Employment, Working Paper Series qt3hk7s3fw, Institute of Industrial Relations, UC Berkeley.
    15. Del Carpio, Ximena & Nguyen, Ha & Wang, Liang Choon, 2012. "Does the minimum wage affect employment ? evidence from the manufacturing sector in Indonesia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6147, The World Bank.
    16. Yamada, Ken, 2016. "Tracing the impact of large minimum wage changes on household welfare in Indonesia," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 287-303.
    17. Yuan Zi, 2014. "Trade Costs, Global Value Chains and Economic Development," CTEI Working Papers series 06-2014, Centre for Trade and Economic Integration, The Graduate Institute.
    18. Del Carpio, Ximena & Messina, Julián & Sanz-de-Galdeano, Anna, 2014. "Minimum Wage: Does It Improve Welfare in Thailand?," IZA Discussion Papers 7911, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    19. repec:bla:revinw:v:63:y:2017:i:2:p:310-334 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Minimum wage; Big push; Spatial regression discontinuity;

    JEL classification:

    • O1 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development
    • J8 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Labor Standards

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