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Global oil prices and the impact of China

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  • Beirne, John
  • Beulen, Christian
  • Liu, Guy
  • Mirzaei, Ali

Abstract

This paper assesses the externality impact of China's excessive growth as a China factor on the world economy via examining the effect of Chinese GDP growth on oil prices as a case for the issue. Our assessment starts, firstly, by estimating a country-level demand model to determine the GDP influences of an individual country on oil demand. Secondly, it estimates the impact of world aggregate demand on oil prices. This two-stage approach enables us to estimate the effect of the GDP growth of an individual nation on oil demand globally and the global price of oil. The estimated demand model is applied to quantify the effect of the Chinese GDP growth on the price of oil through simulations of a range of scenarios for each year over the period 2009 to 2030. We find that China's excessive growth adds a premium to the price of oil which increases over time. The results have policy implications in terms of the sustainability of the Chinese faster growth rate from the perspective of its negative externalities to the world.

Suggested Citation

  • Beirne, John & Beulen, Christian & Liu, Guy & Mirzaei, Ali, 2013. "Global oil prices and the impact of China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 37-51.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:chieco:v:27:y:2013:i:c:p:37-51
    DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2013.07.001
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Faria, João Ricardo & Mollick, André Varella & Albuquerque, Pedro H. & León-Ledesma, Miguel A., 2009. "The effect of oil price on China's exports," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 793-805, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Wensheng Kang & Ronald A. Ratti, 2014. "Policy Uncertainty in China, Oil Shocks and Stock Returns," CAMA Working Papers 2014-32, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    2. Deeney, Peter & Cummins, Mark & Dowling, Michael & Bermingham, Adam, 2015. "Sentiment in oil markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 179-185.
    3. Zhao, Zhao & Wen, Huwei & Li, Ke, 2021. "Identifying bubbles and the contagion effect between oil and stock markets: New evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 780-788.
    4. Zheng, Xinwei & Su, Dan, 2017. "Impacts of oil price shocks on Chinese stock market liquidity," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 136-174.
    5. Brueckner, Marcus & Hong, Haidi & Vespignani, Joaquin, 2023. "Regulation of petrol and diesel prices and their effects on GDP growth: evidence from China," Working Papers 2023-02, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics.
    6. Yuan, Chaoqing & Liu, Sifeng & Fang, Zhigeng, 2016. "Comparison of China's primary energy consumption forecasting by using ARIMA (the autoregressive integrated moving average) model and GM(1,1) model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 384-390.
    7. Sun, Xiaolei & Liu, Chang & Chen, Xiuwen & Li, Jianping, 2017. "Modeling systemic risk of crude oil imports: Case of China’s global oil supply chain," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 449-465.
    8. Liu, Donghui & Meng, Lingjie & Wang, Yudong, 2020. "Oil price shocks and Chinese economy revisited: New evidence from SVAR model with sign restrictions," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 20-32.
    9. Pan, Xunzhang & Wang, Lining & Dai, Jiaquan & Zhang, Qi & Peng, Tianduo & Chen, Wenying, 2020. "Analysis of China’s oil and gas consumption under different scenarios toward 2050: An integrated modeling," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    10. Ju, Keyi & Zhou, Dequn & Zhou, P. & Wu, Junmin, 2014. "Macroeconomic effects of oil price shocks in China: An empirical study based on Hilbert–Huang transform and event study," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 1053-1066.
    11. Wensheng Kang & Ronald A. Ratti, 2015. "Oil shocks, policy uncertainty and stock returns in China," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 23(4), pages 657-676, October.
    12. Ratti, Ronald A. & Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2016. "Oil prices and global factor macroeconomic variables," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 198-212.
    13. Ratti, Ronald A. & Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2014. "Oil prices and the economy: A global perspective," MPRA Paper 59407, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Li, Sisi & Khan, Sufyan Ullah & Yao, Yao & Chen, George S. & Zhang, Lin & Salim, Ruhul & Huo, Jiaying, 2022. "Estimating the long-run crude oil demand function of China: Some new evidence and policy options," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    15. Andersen, Thomas Barnebeck & Barslund, Mikkel & Hansen, Casper Worm & Harr, Thomas & Jensen, Peter Sandholt, 2014. "How much did China's WTO accession increase economic growth in resource-rich countries?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 16-26.
    16. Markus Brueckner & Haidi Hong & Joaquin Vespignani, 2023. "Effects of Government Regulation of Diesel and Petrol Prices on GDP Growth: Evidence from China," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2023-690, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
    17. Yue-Jun Zhang & Yan-Lin Jin & Bo Shen, 2020. "Measuring the Energy Saving and CO2 Emissions Reduction Potential Under China’s Belt and Road Initiative," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 55(4), pages 1095-1116, April.
    18. Chuxiong Deng & Zhujun Jiang & Chuanwang Sun, 2018. "Estimating the Efficiency and Impacts of Petroleum Product Pricing Reforms in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-17, April.
    19. He, Yongda & Lin, Boqiang, 2023. "Is market power the cause of asymmetric pricing in China's refined oil market?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    20. Wu, Gang & Zhang, Yue-Jun, 2014. "Does China factor matter? An econometric analysis of international crude oil prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 78-86.
    21. Chen, Su-Mei & He, Ling-Yun, 2014. "Welfare loss of China's air pollution: How to make personal vehicle transportation policy," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 106-118.
    22. Zhang, Jin & Li, Pujiang & Zhao, Guochang, 2018. "Is power generation really the gold measure of the Chinese economy? A conceptual and empirical assessment," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 211-216.
    23. Barnebeck Andersen,Thomas & Barslund, Mikkel & Worm Hansen, Casper & Harr, Thomas & Sandholt Jensen, Peter, 2013. "How much did China�s WTO accession increase economic growth in resource-rich countries?," CEPS Papers 8471, Centre for European Policy Studies.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    China; Oil prices; Externality costs;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • F0 - International Economics - - General

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