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Global oil prices and the impact of China

Author

Listed:
  • Beirne, John
  • Beulen, Christian
  • Liu, Guy
  • Mirzaei, Ali

Abstract

This paper assesses the externality impact of China's excessive growth as a China factor on the world economy via examining the effect of Chinese GDP growth on oil prices as a case for the issue. Our assessment starts, firstly, by estimating a country-level demand model to determine the GDP influences of an individual country on oil demand. Secondly, it estimates the impact of world aggregate demand on oil prices. This two-stage approach enables us to estimate the effect of the GDP growth of an individual nation on oil demand globally and the global price of oil. The estimated demand model is applied to quantify the effect of the Chinese GDP growth on the price of oil through simulations of a range of scenarios for each year over the period 2009 to 2030. We find that China's excessive growth adds a premium to the price of oil which increases over time. The results have policy implications in terms of the sustainability of the Chinese faster growth rate from the perspective of its negative externalities to the world.

Suggested Citation

  • Beirne, John & Beulen, Christian & Liu, Guy & Mirzaei, Ali, 2013. "Global oil prices and the impact of China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 37-51.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:chieco:v:27:y:2013:i:c:p:37-51 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2013.07.001
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Joao Ricardo Faria & Andre Varella Mollick & Pedro H. Albuquerque & Miguel Leon-Ledesma, 2008. "China's Exports and the Oil Price," Studies in Economics 0812, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    2. Ray Barrell & Olga Pomerantz, 2004. "Oil Prices and the World Economy," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 152-177.
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    Cited by:

    1. Deeney, Peter & Cummins, Mark & Dowling, Michael & Bermingham, Adam, 2015. "Sentiment in oil markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 179-185.
    2. Yuan, Chaoqing & Liu, Sifeng & Fang, Zhigeng, 2016. "Comparison of China's primary energy consumption forecasting by using ARIMA (the autoregressive integrated moving average) model and GM(1,1) model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 384-390.
    3. Ju, Keyi & Zhou, Dequn & Zhou, P. & Wu, Junmin, 2014. "Macroeconomic effects of oil price shocks in China: An empirical study based on Hilbert–Huang transform and event study," Applied Energy, Elsevier, pages 1053-1066.
    4. Wensheng Kang & Ronald A. Ratti, 2015. "Oil shocks, policy uncertainty and stock returns in China," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 23(4), pages 657-676, October.
    5. Ratti, Ronald A. & Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2016. "Oil prices and global factor macroeconomic variables," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 198-212.
    6. Ronald A. Ratti & Joaquin L. Vespignani, 2014. "Oil prices and the economy: A global perspective," CAMA Working Papers 2014-41, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    7. Wensheng Kang & Ronald A. Ratti, 2014. "Policy Uncertainty in China, Oil Shocks and Stock Returns," CAMA Working Papers 2014-32, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    8. repec:eee:reveco:v:50:y:2017:i:c:p:136-174 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Sun, Xiaolei & Liu, Chang & Chen, Xiuwen & Li, Jianping, 2017. "Modeling systemic risk of crude oil imports: Case of China’s global oil supply chain," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 449-465.
    10. Andersen, Thomas Barnebeck & Barslund, Mikkel & Hansen, Casper Worm & Harr, Thomas & Jensen, Peter Sandholt, 2014. "How much did China's WTO accession increase economic growth in resource-rich countries?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 16-26.
    11. Wu, Gang & Zhang, Yue-Jun, 2014. "Does China factor matter? An econometric analysis of international crude oil prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 78-86.
    12. Chen, Su-Mei & He, Ling-Yun, 2014. "Welfare loss of China's air pollution: How to make personal vehicle transportation policy," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 106-118.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    China; Oil prices; Externality costs;

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • F0 - International Economics - - General

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