Temperature and outdoor productivity: Evidence from professional soccer players

We estimate the causal effects of ambient temperature on outdoor productivity, using the performance data of professional soccer players in the Chinese Super League (CSL) from 2014 to 2018. We exploit exogenous variation in the players’ exposure to temperature by matching it with hourly stadium temperature at the time of kick-off. We find that temperature has an inverted-U shaped relationship with players’ physical performance, and high temperature has a sizeable adverse impact on the cognitive performance. Our results are robust while considering alternative measures of productivity, potential avoidable behaviors, various playing styles, and possible climate adaptations. Furthermore, we focus on the economic consequences of reducing players’ productivity by investigating the adverse impacts of high-temperature exposure on social media attention and players’ human capital accumulation. Our findings suggest that the temperature profoundly impacts on the careers of outdoor workers both in the short- and long-term.