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Real effects of common currencies in East Asia

  • Shirono, Kazuko
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    Since the 1997 Asian currency crisis, new interest has emerged in the formation of a common currency area in East Asia. This paper provides estimates of trade and welfare effects of East Asian currency unions, using a micro-founded gravity model. Counter-factual experiments to assess the effects of various hypothetical currency arrangements for East Asia suggest that an East Asian currency union will double bilateral trade in the region, but the resulting welfare effects will be moderate. However, if Japan, a major trade partner for East Asia, is included in the union, welfare effects increase substantially. The evidence thus suggests that certain regional currency arrangements in East Asia will stimulate regional trade rigorously and can generate economically significant welfare gains.

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    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Asian Economics.

    Volume (Year): 19 (2008)
    Issue (Month): 3 (June)
    Pages: 199-212

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:asieco:v:19:y:2008:i:3:p:199-212
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    1. Reuven Glick & Andrew K. Rose, 2001. "Does a currency union affect trade? the time series evidence," Working Paper Series 2001-13, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    2. Wei, S.J. & Frankel, J.A., 1992. "Yen Bloc or Dollar Bloc: Exchange Rate Policies of the East Asian Economies," Papers 92-08, University of Birmingham - International Financial Group.
    3. Peter B. Clark & Shang-Jin Wei & Natalia T. Tamirisa & Azim M Sadikov & Li Zeng, 2004. "A New Look at Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade Flows," IMF Occasional Papers 235, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 1996. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," NBER Working Papers 5700, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Frankel, Jeffrey A., 1993. "Is Japan Creating a Yen Bloc in East Asia and the Pacific?," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers 233179, University of California-Berkeley, Department of Economics.
    6. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2001. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 8079, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. R. I. McKinnon, 2000. "The East Asian Dollar Standard, Life After Death?," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 29(1), pages 31-82, 02.
    8. Jonathan Eaton & Samuel Kortum, 2002. "Technology, Geography, and Trade," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(5), pages 1741-1779, September.
    9. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2001. "Borders, Trade and Welfare," NBER Working Papers 8515, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Andrew K. Rose & Eric van Wincoop, 2001. "National Money as a Barrier to International Trade: The Real Case for Currency Union," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 386-390, May.
    11. Eiji Ogawa & Takatoshi Ito, 2000. "On the Desirability of a Regional Basket Currency Arrangement," NBER Working Papers 8002, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Baldwin, Richard & Taglioni, Daria, 2006. "Gravity for Dummies and Dummies for Gravity Equations," CEPR Discussion Papers 5850, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Kwan, C. H., 1998. "The theory of optimum currency areas and the possibility of forming a yen bloc in Asia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 555-580.
    14. Chow, Hwee Kwan & Kim, Yoonbai, 2003. "A common currency peg in East Asia? Perspectives from Western Europe," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 331-350, September.
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