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Trade policy, biotechnology and grain self-sufficiency in China

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  • Felloni, Fabrizio
  • Gilbert, John
  • Wahl, Thomas I.
  • Wandschneider, Philip

Abstract

Over the past 20 years the growth of China's agricultural economy has been extraordinary. However, it seems unlikely that China will maintain self-sufficiency in grains by 2005 without substantial intervention. We develop a CGE model to assess the options available to Chinese policy makers. We compare the welfare effects of import tariffs and domestic support, and explore the potential of biotechnology as a means to achieve self-sufficiency through improvements in agricultural productivity. Our results indicate that the price interventions that would be required to maintain China's desired self-sufficiency ratios are considerable, and are unlikely to be compatible with WTO accession. The productivity improvements required are also significant, and likely beyond the current potential of biotechnology. © 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.
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Suggested Citation

  • Felloni, Fabrizio & Gilbert, John & Wahl, Thomas I. & Wandschneider, Philip, 2003. "Trade policy, biotechnology and grain self-sufficiency in China," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 28(3), pages 173-186, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:agecon:v:28:y:2003:i:3:p:173-186
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. John Gilbert & Thomas Wahl, 2002. "Applied General Equilibrium Assessments of Trade Libereralisation in China," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(5), pages 697-731, May.
    2. Young, Alwyn, 1994. "Lessons from the East Asian NICS: A contrarian view," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(3-4), pages 964-973, April.
    3. Yongzheng Yang & Yiping Huang, 1997. "How Should China Feed Itself?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(7), pages 913-934, November.
    4. Anderson, Kym & Dimaranan, Betina V. & Hertel, Thomas W. & Martin, William J., 1997. "Asia-Pacific food markets and trade in 2005: a global, economy-wide perspective," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 41(1), March.
    5. J. N. Bhagwati & T. N. Srinivasan, 1969. "Optimal Intervention to Achieve Non-Economic Objectives," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 36(1), pages 27-38.
    6. Liu, Jing & Nico van Leeuwen & Tri Thanh Vo & Rod Tyers & Thomas W. Hertel, 1998. "Disaggregating Labor Payments by Skill Level in GTAP," GTAP Technical Papers 314, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    7. Fan, Shenggen & Agcaoili-Sombilla, Mercedita C., 1997. "Why do projections on China's future food supply and demand differ?:," EPTD discussion papers 22, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    8. Ahuja, Vinod & Filmer, Deon, 1995. "Educational attainments in developing countries : new estimates and projections disaggregated by gender," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1489, The World Bank.
    9. Harry G. Johnson, 1960. "The Cost of Protection and the Scientific Tariff," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 68, pages 327-327.
    10. Drysdale, Peter & Huang, Yiping, 1997. "Technological Catch-up and Economic Growth in East Asia and the Pacific," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 73(222), pages 201-211, September.
    11. Anderson, Kym & Peng, Chao Yang, 1998. "Feeding and fueling China in the 21st century," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 26(8), pages 1413-1429, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jianzhai Wu & Jianhua Zhang & Shengwei Wang & Fantao Kong, 2016. "Assessment of Food Security in China: A New Perspective Based on Production-Consumption Coordination," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 8(3), pages 1-14, March.
    2. repec:gam:jsusta:v:8:y:2016:i:3:p:183:d:64865 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Xiaoxing Qi & Laiyuan Zhong & Liming Liu, 2015. "A framework for a regional integrated food security early warning system: a case study of the Dongting Lake area in China," Agriculture and Human Values, Springer;The Agriculture, Food, & Human Values Society (AFHVS), vol. 32(2), pages 315-329, June.
    4. Ito, Junichi & Ni, Jing, 2013. "Capital deepening, land use policy, and self-sufficiency in China's grain sector," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 95-107.

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    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models

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