IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/blv/journl/v6-7y2003i2-1p7-50.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Inflación y depreciación en una economía dolarizada. El caso de Bolivia

Author

Listed:
  • Luis Fernando Escobar Patiño

    (Banco Central de Bolivia)

  • Pablo Mendieta Ossio

    (Banco Central de Bolivia)

Abstract

El trabajo examina empíricamente la magnitud del coeficiente de traspaso del tipo de cambio nominal a los precios internos ("pass-through") en Bolivia, utilizando distintas metodologías de vectores autoregresivos. Los resultados indican que la magnitud de este coeficiente es relativamente mayor a la encontrada para economías vecinas (incluyendo la experiencia peruana, que posee características similares en cuanto a dolarización se refiere), lo que reflejaría el grado de importancia del tipo de cambio como ancla nominal. Es probable que la caída observada en el coeficiente de traspaso en los últimos años esté relacionada con la casi nula modificación de los precios administrados de los hidrocarburos y, no con una caída estructural como en el caso de otras economías. El trabajo confirma la relación no lineal entre la inflación y la depreciación, aunque distinta a la obtenida anteriormente en otros estudios: una mayor tasa de depreciación incrementa rápidamente el traspaso y hace que el efecto sea más variable; mientras que menores tasas de depreciación reducen de forma gradual el coeficiente de traspaso. Finalmente, se obtuvo una estimación del coeficiente de traspaso esperado, que resultó cercano a la unidad y que difiere del traspaso efectivo, mostrando el rol crucial que tiene el tipo de cambio como ancla nominal de las expectativas de los agentes económicos.

Suggested Citation

  • Luis Fernando Escobar Patiño & Pablo Mendieta Ossio, 2003. "Inflación y depreciación en una economía dolarizada. El caso de Bolivia," Revista de Análisis del BCB, Banco Central de Bolivia, vol. 6(2-1), pages 7-50, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:blv:journl:v:6-7:y:2003:i:2-1:p:7-50
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bcb.gob.bo/webdocs/2011/Publicaciones/RevistaAnalisis/2003/dic/Capitulo1final.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.bcb.gob.bo/?q=pub_revista-analisis
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-673, September.
    2. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol & Smith, Richard J., 2000. "Structural analysis of vector error correction models with exogenous I(1) variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 293-343, August.
    3. Alain Ize & Andrew Powell, 2005. "Prudential Responses to de facto Dollarization," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(4), pages 241-262.
    4. Martin Cerisola & Gaston Gelos, 2009. "What drives inflation expectations in Brazil? An empirical analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(10), pages 1215-1227.
    5. Alexander Mihailov, 2009. "Exchange rate pass-through to prices in macrodata: a comparative sensitivity analysis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(4), pages 346-377.
    6. Jonathan McCarthy, 2007. "Pass-Through of Exchange Rates and Import Prices to Domestic Inflation in Some Industrialized Economies," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 33(4), pages 511-537, Fall.
    7. MacKinnon, James G, 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 601-618, Nov.-Dec..
    8. Taylor, John B., 2000. "Low inflation, pass-through, and the pricing power of firms," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(7), pages 1389-1408, June.
    9. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    10. Dolado, Juan J & Jenkinson, Tim & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simon, 1990. " Cointegration and Unit Roots," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(3), pages 249-273.
    11. Alexander Mihailov, 2009. "Exchange rate pass-through to prices in macrodata: a comparative sensitivity analysis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(4), pages 346-377.
    12. Ilan Goldfajn & Sérgio Ribeiro da Costa Werlang, 2000. "The Pass-through from Depreciation to Inflation: A Panel Study," Working Papers Series 5, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    13. Favero, Carlo A., 2001. "Applied Macroeconometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198296850.
    14. Anotai Buddhari & Varapat Chensavasdijai, 2003. "Inflation dynamics and its implications for monetary policy," Working Papers 2003-05, Monetary Policy Group, Bank of Thailand.
    15. Robert-Paul Berben & Jan Marc Berk, 2002. "Requirements for successful currency regimes: the Dutch and Thai experiences," MEB Series (discontinued) 2002-16, Netherlands Central Bank, Monetary and Economic Policy Department.
    16. Hahn, Elke, 2003. "Pass-through of external shocks to euro area inflation," Working Paper Series 243, European Central Bank.
    17. Zulfiqar Hyder & Sardar Shah, 2004. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Domestic Prices in Pakistan," SBP Working Paper Series 05, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department.
    18. Morales, Juan Antonio, 1989. "La Transición de la Estabilidad al Crecimiento Sostenido en Bolivia," Documentos de trabajo 4/1989, Instituto de Investigaciones Socio-Económicas (IISEC), Universidad Católica Boliviana.
    19. Nikolay Gueorguiev, 2003. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Romania," IMF Working Papers 03/130, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Carlos José García & Jorge Enrique Restrepo, 2001. "Price Inflation and Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 128, Central Bank of Chile.
    21. John Forth, 2000. "Pay settlements in Britain," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 173, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    22. Agnes A Belaisch, 2003. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Brazil," IMF Working Papers 03/141, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    inflación; depreciación; vectores autorregresivos;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:blv:journl:v:6-7:y:2003:i:2-1:p:7-50. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jose Antonio Caballero Pelaez). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/bcbgvbo.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.