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Inflación y depreciación en una economía dolarizada. El caso de Bolivia

  • Luis Fernando Escobar Patiño

    (Banco Central de Bolivia)

  • Pablo Mendieta Ossio

    (Banco Central de Bolivia)

El trabajo examina empíricamente la magnitud del coeficiente de traspaso del tipo de cambio nominal a los precios internos ("pass-through") en Bolivia, utilizando distintas metodologías de vectores autoregresivos. Los resultados indican que la magnitud de este coeficiente es relativamente mayor a la encontrada para economías vecinas (incluyendo la experiencia peruana, que posee características similares en cuanto a dolarización se refiere), lo que reflejaría el grado de importancia del tipo de cambio como ancla nominal. Es probable que la caída observada en el coeficiente de traspaso en los últimos años esté relacionada con la casi nula modificación de los precios administrados de los hidrocarburos y, no con una caída estructural como en el caso de otras economías. El trabajo confirma la relación no lineal entre la inflación y la depreciación, aunque distinta a la obtenida anteriormente en otros estudios: una mayor tasa de depreciación incrementa rápidamente el traspaso y hace que el efecto sea más variable; mientras que menores tasas de depreciación reducen de forma gradual el coeficiente de traspaso. Finalmente, se obtuvo una estimación del coeficiente de traspaso esperado, que resultó cercano a la unidad y que difiere del traspaso efectivo, mostrando el rol crucial que tiene el tipo de cambio como ancla nominal de las expectativas de los agentes económicos.

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Article provided by Banco Central de Bolivia in its journal Revista de Análisis.

Volume (Year): 6-7 (2003)
Issue (Month): 2-1 (December)
Pages: 7-50

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Handle: RePEc:blv:journl:v:6-7:y:2003:i:2-1:p:7-50
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  1. Jonathan McCarthy, 2000. "Pass-through of exchange rates and import prices to domestic inflation in some industrialized economies," Staff Reports 111, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  2. Agnes Belaisch, 2003. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Brazil," IMF Working Papers 03/141, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Alain Ize & Andrew Powell, 2004. "Prudential Responses to De Facto Dollarization," IMF Working Papers 04/66, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  5. Morales, Juan Antonio, 1989. "La Transición de la Estabilidad al Crecimiento Sostenido en Bolivia," Documentos de trabajo 4/1989, Instituto de Investigaciones Socio-Económicas (IISEC), Universidad Católica Boliviana.
  6. Ilan Goldfajn & Sérgio Ribeiro da Costa Werlang, 2000. "The Pass-through from Depreciation to Inflation: A Panel Study," Working Papers Series 5, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  7. James G. MacKinnon, 1995. "Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests," Working Papers 918, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
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  9. Alexander Mihailov, 2009. "Exchange rate pass-through to prices in macrodata: a comparative sensitivity analysis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(4), pages 346-377.
  10. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol & Smith, Richard J., 2000. "Structural analysis of vector error correction models with exogenous I(1) variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 293-343, August.
  11. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-73, September.
  12. Robert-Paul Berben & Jan Marc Berk, 2002. "Requirements for successful currency regimes: the Dutch and Thai experiences," MEB Series (discontinued) 2002-16, Netherlands Central Bank, Monetary and Economic Policy Department.
  13. John Forth, 2000. "Pay settlements in Britain," NIESR Discussion Papers 169, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
  14. Dolado, Juan J & Jenkinson, Tim & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simon, 1990. " Cointegration and Unit Roots," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(3), pages 249-73.
  15. Nikolay Gueorguiev, 2003. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Romania," IMF Working Papers 03/130, International Monetary Fund.
  16. Anotai Buddhari & Varapat Chensavasdijai, 2003. "Inflation dynamics and its implications for monetary policy," Working Papers 2003-05, Economic Research Department, Bank of Thailand.
  17. Favero, Carlo A., 2001. "Applied Macroeconometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198296850, March.
  18. Taylor, John B., 2000. "Low inflation, pass-through, and the pricing power of firms," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(7), pages 1389-1408, June.
  19. Martin Cerisola & Gaston Gelos, 2009. "What drives inflation expectations in Brazil? An empirical analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(10), pages 1215-1227.
  20. Hahn, Elke, 2003. "Pass-through of external shocks to euro area inflation," Working Paper Series 0243, European Central Bank.
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