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Inflación y depreciación en una economía dolarizada: el caso de Bolivia

  • Luis Fernando Escobar Patiño

    (Banco Central de Bolivia)

  • Pablo Hernán Mendieta Ossio

    (Banco Central de Bolivia)

El trabajo examina empíricamente la magnitud del coeficiente de traspaso del tipo de cambio nominal a los precios internos ("pass-through") en Bolivia, utilizando distintas metodologías de vectores autoregresivos. Los resultados indican que la magnitud de este coeficiente es relativamente mayor a la encontrada para economías vecinas (incluyendo la experiencia peruana, que posee características similares en cuanto a dolarización se refiere), lo que reflejaría el grado de importancia del tipo de cambio como ancla nominal. Es probable que la caída observada en el coeficiente de traspaso en los últimos años esté relacionada con la casi nula modificación de los precios administrados de los hidrocarburos y, no con una caída estructural como en el caso de otras economías. El trabajo confirma la relación no lineal entre la inflación y la depreciación, aunque distinta a la obtenida anteriormente en otros estudios: una mayor tasa de depreciación incrementa rápidamente el traspaso y hace que el efecto sea más variable; mientras que menores tasas de depreciación reducen de forma gradual el coeficiente de traspaso. Finalmente, se obtuvo una estimación del coeficiente de traspaso esperado, que resultó cercano a la unidad y que difiere del traspaso efectivo, mostrando el rol crucial que tiene el tipo de cambio como ancla nominal de las expectativas de los agentes económicos.

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Article provided by Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos in its journal Monetaria.

Volume (Year): XXIX (2006)
Issue (Month): 1 (enero-marzo)
Pages: 1-39

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Handle: RePEc:cml:moneta:v:xxix:y:2006:i:1:p:1-39
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  2. Robert-Paul Berben & Jan Marc Berk, 2002. "Requirements for successful currency regimes: the Dutch and Thai experiences," MEB Series (discontinued) 2002-16, Netherlands Central Bank, Monetary and Economic Policy Department.
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  14. Dolado, Juan J & Jenkinson, Tim & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simon, 1990. " Cointegration and Unit Roots," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(3), pages 249-73.
  15. Jonathan McCarthy, 2000. "Pass-through of exchange rates and import prices to domestic inflation in some industrialized economies," Staff Reports 111, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  16. Taylor, John B., 2000. "Low inflation, pass-through, and the pricing power of firms," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(7), pages 1389-1408, June.
  17. Hahn, Elke, 2003. "Pass-through of external shocks to euro area inflation," Working Paper Series 0243, European Central Bank.
  18. Morales, Juan Antonio, 1989. "La Transición de la Estabilidad al Crecimiento Sostenido en Bolivia," Documentos de trabajo 4/1989, Instituto de Investigaciones Socio-Económicas (IISEC), Universidad Católica Boliviana.
  19. Anotai Buddhari & Varapat Chensavasdijai, 2003. "Inflation dynamics and its implications for monetary policy," Working Papers 2003-05, Economic Research Department, Bank of Thailand.
  20. Alexander Mihailov, 2004. "The Empirical Range of Pass-Through in US, German and Japanese Macrodata," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 44, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  21. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
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