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Inflation dynamics and its implications for monetary policy

Author

Listed:
  • Anotai Buddhari

    (Bank of Thailand)

  • Varapat Chensavasdijai

    (Bank of Thailand)

Abstract

Since May 2000, the Bank of Thailand adopted inflation targeting as its monetary framework, making price stability the overriding policy objective. Understanding the inflation transmission mechanism is therefore crucial in policy assessment and decision-making. Of particular concern are the key determinants of inflation in Thailand and their relative importance over time. Given the pervasive influence of the exchange rate in the economy, the paper employs econometric models to measure the pass-through of exchange rate movements to domestic prices. In doing so, it evaluates whether the degree of pass-through varies across sectors. Reasons that explain the weak exchange rate pass-through include: 1) changes in firms’ pricing strategy, 2) lower inflation expectations, 3) shifts in housing market structure, and 4) prevalence of administered price measures. The low pass-through has provided more room for manoeuvre in monetary policy. As the pass-through depends on not only the share of import content but also the exchange rate volatility, large fluctuations in the exchange rate can still pose a threat to the inflation target.

Suggested Citation

  • Anotai Buddhari & Varapat Chensavasdijai, 2003. "Inflation dynamics and its implications for monetary policy," Working Papers 2003-05, Monetary Policy Group, Bank of Thailand.
    • Handle: RePEc:bth:wpaper:2003-05
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. M S Mohanty & Marc Klau, 2001. "What determines inflation in emerging market economies?," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Modelling aspects of the inflation process and the monetary transmission mechanism in emerging market countries, volume 8, pages 1-38, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2000. "Inflation Targeting in Emerging-Market Countries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 105-109, May.
    3. Otani, Akira & Shiratsuka, Shigenori & Shirota, Toyoichiro, 2003. "The Decline in the Exchange Rate Pass-Through: Evidence from Japanese Import Prices," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 21(3), pages 53-81, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Pongsak Luangaram & Yuthana Sethapramote & Chutiorn Tontivanichnon, 2015. "Inflation Expectations and Monetary Policy in Thailand," PIER Discussion Papers 3., Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research, revised Sep 2015.
    2. Dubravko Mihaljek & Marc Klau, 2008. "Exchange rate pass-through in emerging market economies: what has changed and why?," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Transmission mechanisms for monetary policy in emerging market economies, volume 35, pages 103-130, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. K. Mukherjee & B. Ouattara, 2021. "Climate and monetary policy: do temperature shocks lead to inflationary pressures?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 167(3), pages 1-21, August.
    4. Wanicha Direkudomsak, 2016. "Inflation dynamics and inflation expectations in Thailand," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Inflation mechanisms, expectations and monetary policy, volume 89, pages 349-360, Bank for International Settlements.
    5. Pym Manopimoke & Wanicha Direkudomsak, 2015. "Thai Inflation Dynamics in a Globalized Economy," PIER Discussion Papers 11., Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research, revised Nov 2015.
    6. Manopimoke, Pym & Limjaroenrat, Vorada, 2017. "Trend inflation estimates for Thailand from disaggregated data," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 75-94.
    7. Pym Manopimoke & Wanicha Direkudomsak, 2015. "Thai Inflation Dynamics in a Globalized Economy," PIER Discussion Papers 11, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
    8. Pongsak Luangaram & Yuthana Sethapramote & Chutiorn Tontivanichanon, 2015. "Inflation Expectations and Monetary Policy in Thailand," PIER Discussion Papers 3, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
    9. Luis Fernando Escobar Patiño & Pablo Hernán Mendieta Ossio, 2006. "Inflación y depreciación en una economía dolarizada: el caso de Bolivia," Monetaria, CEMLA, vol. 0(1), pages 1-39, enero-mar.
    10. Piti Disyatat & Runchana Pongsaparn & Atchana Waiquamdee, 2005. "Effective Exchange Rates and Monetary Policy: The Thai Experience," Working Papers 2005-07, Monetary Policy Group, Bank of Thailand.

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