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Do higher college graduation rates increase local education levels?

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  • John V. Winters

Abstract

College graduates are important for regional economies but also quite geographically mobile. This paper examines the relationship between college graduation rates among persons from a state (relative production) and the later share of college graduates for persons residing in the state (relative stock) using decennial census and American Community Survey microdata. The descriptive relationship has increased over time and is nearly proportional in recent years. Instrumental variables (IV) methods are used to estimate causal effects. The preferred IV results yield an average point estimate for the production‐stock relationship of 0.52, but the effect likely decreases with age. Los graduados universitarios son importantes para las economías regionales, pero también son bastante móviles geográficamente. Este artículo examina la relación entre los índices de graduación universitaria entre las personas de un estado (producción relativa) y la proporción posterior de graduados universitarios para las personas que residen en el estado (existencias relativas), mediante el uso del censo decenal y microdatos de la Encuesta de la Comunidad Estadounidense. La relación descriptiva ha aumentado en el tiempo y es casi proporcional en los últimos años. Se utilizan métodos de variables instrumentales (VI) para estimar los efectos causales. Los resultados de las IV preferidas arrojan una estimación de punto promedio para el cociente producción‐existencias de 0,52, pero es probable que el efecto disminuya con la edad. 大学卒業者は、地域経済にとって貴重であるが、地理的な移動可能性が非常に高くもある。本稿では、国勢調査とAmerican Community Surveyのマイクロデータを使用して、ある州の出身者の大学卒業率(相対的生産)とその後のその州の居住者の大学卒業率(相対的在庫)の関連性を検討する。経時的に記述的関連性は増加しており、近年ではほぼ均衡的である。操作変数法を用いて因果効果を推計する。好ましい操作変数の結果は、生産と在庫の関係性に対する推算の平均で0.52となったが、年齢とともに効果は減少する傾向がある。

Suggested Citation

  • John V. Winters, 2018. "Do higher college graduation rates increase local education levels?," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 97(3), pages 617-638, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:presci:v:97:y:2018:i:3:p:617-638
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    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/pirs.12258
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    Cited by:

    1. John V. Winters, 2016. "In-State College Enrollment and Later Life Location Decisions," Economics Working Paper Series 1702, Oklahoma State University, Department of Economics and Legal Studies in Business.
    2. John V. Winters, 2017. "Do Native STEM Graduates Increase Innovation? Evidence from U.S. Metropolitan Areas," Economics Working Paper Series 1714, Oklahoma State University, Department of Economics and Legal Studies in Business.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • I25 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Education and Economic Development
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

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