IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/jregsc/v61y2021i4p696-709.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Learning from deregulation: The asymmetric impact of lockdown and reopening on risky behavior during COVID‐19

Author

Listed:
  • Edward L. Glaeser
  • Ginger Z. Jin
  • Benjamin T. Leyden
  • Michael Luca

Abstract

During the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19) pandemic, states issued and then rescinded stay‐at‐home orders that restricted mobility. We develop a model of learning by deregulation, which predicts that lifting stay‐at‐home orders can signal that going out has become safer. Using restaurant activity data, we find that the implementation of stay‐at‐home orders initially had a limited impact, but that activity rose quickly after states' reopenings. The results suggest that consumers inferred from reopening that it was safer to eat out. The rational, but mistaken inference that occurs in our model may explain why a sharp rise of COVID‐19 cases followed reopening in some states.

Suggested Citation

  • Edward L. Glaeser & Ginger Z. Jin & Benjamin T. Leyden & Michael Luca, 2021. "Learning from deregulation: The asymmetric impact of lockdown and reopening on risky behavior during COVID‐19," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(4), pages 696-709, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jregsc:v:61:y:2021:i:4:p:696-709
    DOI: 10.1111/jors.12539
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/jors.12539
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/jors.12539?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Brzezinski, Adam & Deiana, Guido & Kecht, Valentin & Van Dijcke, David, 2020. "The COVID-19 Pandemic: Government vs. Community Action Across the United States," INET Oxford Working Papers 2020-06, Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford.
    2. Allcott, Hunt & Boxell, Levi & Conway, Jacob & Gentzkow, Matthew & Thaler, Michael & Yang, David, 2020. "Polarization and public health: Partisan differences in social distancing during the coronavirus pandemic," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    3. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Michael Weber, 2022. "Does Policy Communication during COVID Work?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 18(1), pages 3-39, March.
    4. Goolsbee, Austan & Syverson, Chad, 2021. "Fear, lockdown, and diversion: Comparing drivers of pandemic economic decline 2020," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    5. Alexander Chudik & M. Hashem Pesaran & Alessandro Rebucci, 2020. "Voluntary and Mandatory Social Distancing: Evidence on COVID-19 Exposure Rates from Chinese Provinces and Selected Countries," NBER Working Papers 27039, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Farboodi, Maryam & Jarosch, Gregor & Shimer, Robert, 2021. "Internal and external effects of social distancing in a pandemic," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    7. Besley, Timothy, 2007. "Principled Agents?: The Political Economy of Good Government," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199283910, Decembrie.
    8. Coibion, Olivier & Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Weber, Michael, 2020. "Does Policy Communication during COVID-19 Work?," IZA Discussion Papers 13355, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    9. Victor Couture & Jonathan I. Dingel & Allison Green & Jessie Handbury & Kevin R. Williams, 2020. "Measuring Movement and Social Contact with Smartphone Data: A Real-time Application to COVID-19," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2241, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    10. Adam Brzezinski & David Van Dijcke & Valentin Kecht, 2020. "The Cost of Staying Open: Voluntary Social Distancing and Lockdowns in the US," Economics Series Working Papers 910, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    11. Sumedha Gupta & Thuy D. Nguyen & Felipe Lozano Rojas & Shyam Raman & Byungkyu Lee & Ana Bento & Kosali I. Simon & Coady Wing, 2020. "Tracking Public and Private Responses to the COVID-19 Epidemic: Evidence from State and Local Government Actions," NBER Working Papers 27027, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Manav Raj & Arun Sundararajan & Calum You, 2020. "COVID-19 and Digital Resilience: Evidence from Uber Eats," Papers 2006.07204, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2023.
    13. Christopher J. Cronin & William N. Evans, 2020. "Private Precaution and Public Restrictions: What Drives Social Distancing and Industry Foot Traffic in the COVID-19 Era?," NBER Working Papers 27531, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Oudom Hean & Nattanicha Chairassamee, 2023. "The effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on U.S. entrepreneurship," Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 1-22, December.
    2. Bisin, Alberto & Moro, Andrea, 2022. "JUE insight: Learning epidemiology by doing: The empirical implications of a Spatial-SIR model with behavioral responses," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    3. Thiemo Fetzer, 2022. "Subsidising the spread of COVID-19: Evidence from the UK’S Eat-Out-to-Help-Out Scheme," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 132(643), pages 1200-1217.
    4. Dhaval Dave & Andrew I. Friedson & Kyutaro Matsuzawa & Drew McNichols & Joseph J. Sabia, 2023. "Sudden lockdown repeals, social mobility, and COVID‐19: Evidence from a judicial natural experiment," Journal of Empirical Legal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 20(2), pages 272-304, June.
    5. Asli Demirgüç-Kunt & Michael Lokshin & Iván Torre, 2021. "Opening-Up Trajectories and Economic Recovery: Lessons after the First Wave of the COVID-19 Pandemic," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 67(3), pages 332-369.
    6. Xiaolan Zhou & Yasuyuki Sawada & Matthew Shum & Elaine S. Tan, 2024. "COVID-19 containment policies, digitalization and sustainable development goals: evidence from Alibaba’s administrative data," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-16, December.
    7. Binzhe Wang & Matias Williams & Fábio Duarte & Siqi Zheng, 2022. "Demand for social interactions: Evidence from the restaurant industry during the COVID‐19 pandemic," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(3), pages 830-857, June.
    8. Shin, Su Hyun & Ji, Hyunjung & Lim, HanNa, 2021. "Heterogeneity in preventive behaviors during COVID-19: Health risk, economic insecurity, and slanted information," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 278(C).
    9. Nicolás González-Pampillón & Gonzalo Nunez-Chaim & Katharina Ziegler, 2021. "Recovering from the first Covid-19 lockdown: Economic impacts of the UK's Eat Out to Help Out scheme," CEP Covid-19 Analyses cepcovid-19-018, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    10. Dylan Balla‐Elliott & Zoë B. Cullen & Edward L. Glaeser & Michael Luca & Christopher Stanton, 2022. "Determinants Of Small Business Reopening Decisions After Covid Restrictions Were Lifted," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(1), pages 278-317, January.
    11. Chie Hirama & Zechen Zeng & Nobutoshi Nawa & Takeo Fujiwara, 2022. "Association between Cooperative Attitude and High-Risk Behaviors on the Spread of COVID-19 Infection among Medical Students in Japan," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(24), pages 1-10, December.
    12. Alexandre K Ligo & Emerson Mahoney & Jeffrey Cegan & Benjamin D Trump & Andrew S Jin & Maksim Kitsak & Jesse Keenan & Igor Linkov, 2021. "Relationship among state reopening policies, health outcomes and economic recovery through first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in the U.S," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(11), pages 1-21, November.
    13. Thuy D. Nguyen & Sumedha Gupta & Martin S. Andersen & Ana I. Bento & Kosali I. Simon & Coady Wing, 2021. "Impacts of state COVID‐19 reopening policy on human mobility and mixing behavior," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 88(2), pages 458-486, October.
    14. Callaway, Brantly & Li, Tong, 2023. "Policy evaluation during a pandemic," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 236(1).
    15. Bussolo, Maurizio & Sarma, Nayantara & Torre, Iván, 2023. "The links between COVID-19 vaccine acceptance and non-pharmaceutical interventions," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 320(C).
    16. Achilleas Psyllidis & Fábio Duarte & Roos Teeuwen & Arianna Salazar Miranda & Tom Benson & Alessandro Bozzon, 2023. "Cities and infectious diseases: Assessing the exposure of pedestrians to virus transmission along city streets," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 60(9), pages 1610-1628, July.
    17. Sedov, Dmitry, 2022. "Restaurant closures during the COVID-19 pandemic: A descriptive analysis," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    18. Gonzalez Pampillon, Nicolas & Nunez Chaim, Gonzalo & Overman, Henry G., 2022. "The economic impacts of the UK's Eat Out to Help Out scheme," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 117979, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    19. Stefanie Haeffele & Jordan K. Lofthouse & Agustin Forzani, 2023. "The Perils of Regulating COVID–19: Insights from Kirznerian Entrepreneurship and Ostromian Polycentricity," Economics of Governance, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 331-355, September.
    20. Bussolo,Maurizio & Sarma,Nayantara & Torre,Ivan, 2022. "Indirect Effects of COVID-19 Nonpharmaceutical Interventions on Vaccine Acceptance," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10106, The World Bank.
    21. Lily Shen & Sean Wilkoff, 2022. "Cleanliness is next to income: The impact of COVID‐19 on short‐term rentals," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(3), pages 799-829, June.
    22. M. Kate Bundorf & Jill DeMatteis & Grant Miller & Maria Polyakova & Jialu L. Streeter & Jonathan Wivagg, 2021. "Risk Perceptions and Protective Behaviors: Evidence from COVID-19 Pandemic," NBER Working Papers 28741, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Janssen, Aljoscha & Shapiro, Matthew H., 2021. "Does precise case disclosure limit precautionary behavior? Evidence from COVID-19 in Singapore," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 700-714.
    2. Janssen, Aljoscha & Shapiro, Matthew, 2020. "Does Precise Case Information Limit Precautionary Behavior? Evidence from COVID-19 in Singapore," Working Paper Series 1344, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
    3. Andrew G. Atkeson & Karen A. Kopecky & Tao Zha, 2024. "Four Stylized Facts About Covid‐19," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 65(1), pages 3-42, February.
    4. Sumedha Gupta & Kosali I. Simon & Coady Wing, 2020. "Mandated and Voluntary Social Distancing During The COVID-19 Epidemic: A Review," NBER Working Papers 28139, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Diane Alexander & Ezra Karger, 2020. "Do Stay-at-Home Orders Cause People to Stay at Home? Effects of Stay-at-Home Orders on Consumer Behavior," Working Paper Series WP 2020-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    6. Tsutomu Watanabe & Tomoyoshi Yabu, 2020. "Japan’s Voluntary Lockdown," CARF F-Series CARF-F-492, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    7. Tsutomu Watanabe & Tomoyoshi Yabu, 2020. "Japan’s Voluntary Lockdown," Working Papers on Central Bank Communication 027, University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Economics.
    8. Bisin, Alberto & Moro, Andrea, 2022. "JUE insight: Learning epidemiology by doing: The empirical implications of a Spatial-SIR model with behavioral responses," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    9. Hunt Allcott & Levi Boxell & Jacob C. Conway & Billy A. Ferguson & Matthew Gentzkow & Benjamin Goldman, 2020. "What Explains Temporal and Geographic Variation in the Early US Coronavirus Pandemic?," NBER Working Papers 27965, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Andrew G. Atkeson & Karen Kopecky & Tao Zha, 2021. "Behavior and the Transmission of COVID-19," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 111, pages 356-360, May.
    11. Milosh, Maria & Painter, Marcus & Sonin, Konstantin & Van Dijcke, David & Wright, Austin L., 2021. "Unmasking partisanship: Polarization undermines public response to collective risk," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    12. Ruohao Zhang, 2022. "Economic impact payment, human mobility and COVID-19 mitigation in the USA," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(6), pages 3041-3060, June.
    13. Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Charles I. Jones, 2020. "Macroeconomic Outcomes and COVID-19: A Progress Report," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 51(3 (Fall)), pages 111-166.
    14. Gutierrez, Emilio & Rubli, Adrian & Tavares, Tiago, 2022. "Information and behavioral responses during a pandemic: Evidence from delays in Covid-19 death reports," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    15. Xiao Chen & Hanwei Huang & Jiandong Ju & Ruoyan Sun & Jialiang Zhang, 2022. "Endogenous cross-region human mobility and pandemics," CEP Discussion Papers dp1860, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    16. Faia, Ester & Fuster, Andreas & Pezone, Vincenzo & Zafar, Basit, 2021. "Biases in information selection and processing: Survey evidence from the pandemic," SAFE Working Paper Series 307, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    17. Mauro Caselli & Andrea Fracasso & Sergio Scicchitano, 2022. "From the lockdown to the new normal: individual mobility and local labor market characteristics following the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 35(4), pages 1517-1550, October.
    18. Bixuan Yang & Frank Asche & Tao Li, 2022. "Consumer behavior and food prices during the COVID‐19 pandemic: Evidence from Chinese cities," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 60(3), pages 1437-1460, July.
    19. Jonas E. Arias & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez & Minchul Shin, 2021. "Bayesian Estimation of Epidemiological Models: Methods, Causality, and Policy Trade-Offs," Working Papers 21-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    20. Joakim A. Weill & Matthieu Stigler & Olivier Deschenes & Michael R. Springborn, 2021. "Researchers' Degrees-of-Flexibility and the Credibility of Difference-in-Differences Estimates: Evidence From the Pandemic Policy Evaluations," NBER Working Papers 29550, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • K0 - Law and Economics - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:jregsc:v:61:y:2021:i:4:p:696-709. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0022-4146 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.