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Subsidising the spread of COVID-19: Evidence from the UK’S Eat-Out-to-Help-Out Scheme

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  • Thiemo Fetzer

Abstract

This paper documents that a large-scale government subsidy aimed at encouraging people to eat out in restaurants in the wake of the first 2020 COVID-19 wave in the United Kingdom has had a significant causal impact on new cases, accelerating the subsequent second COVID-19 wave. The scheme subsidised 50% off the cost of food and non-alcoholic drinks for an unlimited number of visits in participating restaurants on Mondays–Wednesdays from 3–31 August 2020. Areas with higher take-up saw both a notable increase in new COVID-19 infection clusters within a week of the scheme starting and a deceleration in infections within two weeks of the program ending. Similarly, areas that exhibited notable rainfall during the prime lunch and dinner hours on the days the scheme was active record lower infection incidence—a pattern that is also measurable in mobility data—and non-detectable on days during which the discount was not available or for rainfall outside the core lunch and dinner hours.

Suggested Citation

  • Thiemo Fetzer, 2022. "Subsidising the spread of COVID-19: Evidence from the UK’S Eat-Out-to-Help-Out Scheme," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 132(643), pages 1200-1217.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:econjl:v:132:y:2022:i:643:p:1200-1217.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/ej/ueab074
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    Cited by:

    1. Gonzalez-Pampillon, Nicolas & Nunez-Chaim, Gonzalo & Overman, Henry G., 2024. "The economic impacts of the UK's eat out to help out scheme," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    2. Fetzer, Thiemo & Graeber, Thomas, 2020. "Does Contact Tracing Work? Quasi-Experimental Evidence from an Excel Error in England," CEPR Discussion Papers 15494, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Guzman-Tordecilla, Deivis Nicolas & Trujillo, Antonio J., 2025. "Economic and health implications of early COVID-19 lockdown exits: Evidence from a difference-in-differences analysis," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 372(C).
    4. Rufrancos, Héctor & Moro, Mirko & Moore, Eva, 2021. "The impact of University reopenings on COVID-19 cases in Scotland," GLO Discussion Paper Series 868, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    5. Burdett, Ashley & Etheridge, Ben & Tang, Li & Wang, Yikai, 2024. "Worker productivity during Covid-19 and adaptation to working from home," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    6. Islam, Marco, 2021. "Motivated Risk Assessments," Working Papers 2021:12, Lund University, Department of Economics, revised 26 Jul 2022.
    7. Nicolás González-Pampillón & Gonzalo Nunez-Chaim & Katharina Ziegler, 2021. "Recovering from the first Covid-19 lockdown: Economic impacts of the UK's Eat Out to Help Out scheme," CEP Covid-19 Analyses cepcovid-19-018, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    8. Christina D. Romer, 2022. "Lessons from Fiscal Policy in the Pandemic: The ODE Distinguished Economist Award Lecture," The American Economist, Sage Publications, vol. 67(2), pages 164-182, October.
    9. Gonzalez-Eiras, Martín & Niepelt, Dirk, 2025. "A tractable model of epidemic control and equilibrium dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    10. Deiana, Claudio & Geraci, Andrea & Mazzarella, Gianluca & Sabatini, Fabio, 2021. "COVID-19 Relief Programs and Compliance with Confinement Measures," IZA Discussion Papers 14064, IZA Network @ LISER.
    11. Deiana, Claudio & Geraci, Andrea & Mazzarella, Gianluca & Sabatini, Fabio, 2022. "Can relief measures nudge compliance in a public health crisis? Evidence from a kinked fiscal policy rule," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 202(C), pages 407-428.
    12. Lukasz Rachel, 2025. "The second wave," Review of Economic Design, Springer;Society for Economic Design, vol. 29(1), pages 87-113, February.
    13. Fischer Kai, 2022. "Thinning out spectators: Did football matches contribute to the second COVID-19 wave in Germany?," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 23(4), pages 595-640, December.
    14. Solórzano Diego, 2023. "Grab a Bite? Prices in the food away from home industry during the COVID-19 pandemic," Working Papers 2023-18, Banco de México.
    15. Dan Degerman & Elliott Johnson & Matthew Flinders & Matthew Johnson, 2024. "After nudging: the ethical challenge of post-pandemic policymaking in the UK," Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-9, December.
    16. Esteban Jaimovich, 2024. "The Intensive Margin of Altruism: Impact of Covid-19 on Charitable Giving in England and Wales," Working Papers 297, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
    17. Richard Machin, 2023. "UK local government experience of COVID-19 Lockdown: Local responses to global challenges," Local Economy, London South Bank University, vol. 38(1), pages 80-91, February.
    18. Morrissey, Karyn & Spooner, Fiona & Salter, James & Shaddick, Gavin, 2021. "Area level deprivation and monthly COVID-19 cases: The impact of government policy in England," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 289(C).
    19. Nils Braakmann & Boris Hirsch, 2024. "Unions as insurance: Workplace unionization and workers' outcomes during COVID‐19," Industrial Relations: A Journal of Economy and Society, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(2), pages 152-171, April.
    20. Solórzano, Diego, 2024. "Grab a bite? Prices in the food away from home industry during the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 225(C), pages 435-464.
    21. Paravee Maneejuk & Panuwat Sukinta & Jiraphat Chinkarn & Woraphon Yamaka, 2024. "Does the resumption of international tourism heighten COVID-19 transmission?," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 19(2), pages 1-25, February.

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