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Oligopolistic Price Leadership and Mergers: The United States Beer Industry

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  • Nathan H. Miller
  • Gloria Sheu
  • Matthew C. Weinberg

Abstract

We study a repeated game of price leadership in which a firm proposes supermarkups over Bertrand prices to a coalition of rivals. Supermarkups and marginal costs are recoverable from data on prices and quantities using the model's structure. In an application to the beer industry, we find that price leadership increases profit relative to Bertrand competition by 17 percent in fiscal years 2006 and 2007, and by 22 percent in 2010 and 2011, with the change mostly due to consolidation. We simulate two mergers, which relax binding incentive compatibility constraints and increase supermarkups. These coordinated effects arise even with efficiencies that offset price increases under Bertrand competition.

Suggested Citation

  • Nathan H. Miller & Gloria Sheu & Matthew C. Weinberg, 2021. "Oligopolistic Price Leadership and Mergers: The United States Beer Industry," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(10), pages 3123-3159, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:111:y:2021:i:10:p:3123-59
    DOI: 10.1257/aer.20190913
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Stefano DellaVigna & Matthew Gentzkow, 2019. "Uniform Pricing in U.S. Retail Chains," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 134(4), pages 2011-2084.
    2. Laura Grigolon & Frank Verboven, 2014. "Nested Logit or Random Coefficients Logit? A Comparison of Alternative Discrete Choice Models of Product Differentiation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 96(5), pages 916-935, December.
    3. Berry, Steven & Levinsohn, James & Pakes, Ariel, 1995. "Automobile Prices in Market Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(4), pages 841-890, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Martin, Julien & Pesendorfer, Martin & Shannon, Jack, 2025. "Underbidding for oil and gas tracts," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 128285, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    2. Abito, Jose Miguel & Chen, Cuicui, 2023. "A partial identification framework for dynamic games," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    3. Panhans, Matthew T., 2023. "The Rise, Fall, and Legacy of the Structure-Conduct-Performance Paradigm," SocArXiv dvm3e, Center for Open Science.
    4. Michele Fioretti & Junnan He & Jorge Tamayo, 2024. "Prices and Concentration: A U-Shape? Theory and Evidence from Renewables," Working Papers hal-04631762, HAL.
    5. Mansley, Ryan & Miller, Nathan H. & Sheu, Gloria & Weinberg, Matthew C., 2023. "A price leadership model for merger analysis," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    6. Isogai, Shigeki & Shen, Chaohai, 2023. "Multiproduct firm’s reputation and leniency program in multimarket collusion," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    7. Javier D. Donna & Pedro Pereira, 2024. "Structural Presumptions for Non-horizontal Mergers in the 2023 Merger Guidelines: A Primer and a Path Forward," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 65(1), pages 303-345, August.
    8. Cole, Matthew T. & McCullough, Michael, 2023. "California beer price posting: An exploratory analysis of pricing along the supply chain," Journal of Wine Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(3), pages 205-225, August.
    9. Dirk Hackbarth & Bart Taub, 2022. "Does the Potential to Merge Reduce Competition?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(7), pages 5364-5383, July.
    10. Yu Hao, 2025. "Equilibrium Transition from Loss-Leader Competition: How Advertising Restrictions Facilitate Price Coordination in Chilean Pharmaceutical Retail," Papers 2512.22917, arXiv.org.
    11. Blanchard Pablo, 2024. "Mark Ups and Pass-Through in Small and Medium Retailers for Rice, Tomato Sauce and Oil," Journal of Agricultural & Food Industrial Organization, De Gruyter, vol. 22(1), pages 93-109.
    12. Taisuke Otsu & Martin Pesendorfer, 2021. "Equilibrium multiplicity in dynamic games: testing and estimation," STICERD - Econometrics Paper Series 618, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
    13. Rui Hou & Zibin Cui & You Zhao, 2022. "Pricing leadership decisions of competing firms with consumer learning," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(6), pages 2326-2346, September.
    14. Taisuke Otsu & Martin Pesendorfer, 2023. "Equilibrium multiplicity in dynamic games: Testing and estimation," The Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 26(1), pages 26-42.
    15. Weber, Isabella M. & Wasner, Evan & Lang, Markus & Braun, Benjamin & van ’t Klooster, Jens, 2025. "Implicit coordination in sellers’ inflation: How cost shocks facilitate price hikes," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 690-712.
    16. Weber, Isabella & Wasner, Evan & Lang, Markus & Braun, Benjamin & Klooster, Jens van’t, 2025. "Implicit coordination in sellers’ inflation: how cost shocks facilitate price hikes," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 128231, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    17. Kiriti Kanjilal & Ana Espinola-Arredondo & Felix Munoz-Garcia, 2024. "Strategic Merger Approvals Under Incomplete Information," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 65(3), pages 759-791, November.
    18. Julia González & Jorge Lemus & Guillermo Marshall, 2024. "Mergers and organizational disruption: Evidence from the US airline industry," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(1), pages 111-130, January.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G34 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Mergers; Acquisitions; Restructuring; Corporate Governance
    • K21 - Law and Economics - - Regulation and Business Law - - - Antitrust Law
    • L13 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Oligopoly and Other Imperfect Markets
    • L14 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Transactional Relationships; Contracts and Reputation
    • L41 - Industrial Organization - - Antitrust Issues and Policies - - - Monopolization; Horizontal Anticompetitive Practices
    • L66 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - Food; Beverages; Cosmetics; Tobacco

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