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Exploiting the Conditional Density in Estimating the Term Structure: An Application to the Cox, Ingersoll, and Ross Model

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Cited by:

  1. Lin, Xiaoji & Wang, Chong & Wang, Neng & Yang, Jinqiang, 2018. "Investment, Tobin’s q, and interest rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(3), pages 620-640.
  2. Driffill, John & Sola, Martin & Kenc, Turalay & Spagnolo, Fabio, 2004. "On Model Selection and Markov Switching: A Empirical Examination of Term Structure Models with Regime Shifts," CEPR Discussion Papers 4165, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Geert Bekaert & Seonghoon Cho & Antonio Moreno, 2010. "New Keynesian Macroeconomics and the Term Structure," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(1), pages 33-62, February.
  4. Camilla LandÊn, 2000. "Bond pricing in a hidden Markov model of the short rate," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 4(4), pages 371-389.
  5. Heidari, Massoud & Wu, Liuren, 2009. "A Joint Framework for Consistently Pricing Interest Rates and Interest Rate Derivatives," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(3), pages 517-550, June.
  6. Collin-Dufresne, Pierre & Goldstein, Robert S. & Jones, Christopher S., 2009. "Can interest rate volatility be extracted from the cross section of bond yields?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 47-66, October.
  7. Min Fan, 2006. "Heterogeneous Beliefs, the Term Structure and Time-varying Risk Premia," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 2(3), pages 259-285, July.
  8. Christoffersen, Peter & Jacobs, Kris & Ornthanalai, Chayawat & Wang, Yintian, 2008. "Option valuation with long-run and short-run volatility components," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(3), pages 272-297, December.
  9. Chen, Ren-Raw & Liu, Bo & Cheng, Xiaolin, 2010. "Pricing the term structure of inflation risk premia: Theory and evidence from TIPS," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 702-721, September.
  10. Hasan, Iftekhar & Sudipto, Sarkar, 2002. "Banks' option to lend, interest rate sensitivity, and credit availability," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 15/2002, Bank of Finland.
  11. Ang, Andrew & Bekaert, Geert, 2002. "Regime Switches in Interest Rates," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(2), pages 163-182, April.
  12. Santa-Clara, Pedro & Sornette, Didier, 2001. "The Dynamics of the Forward Interest Rate Curve with Stochastic String Shocks," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(1), pages 149-185.
  13. Takamizawa, Hideyuki & Shoji, Isao, 2009. "Modeling the term structure of interest rates with general diffusion processes: A moment approximation approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 65-77, January.
  14. Hans Dewachter & Marco Lyrio & Konstantijn Maes, 2006. "A joint model for the term structure of interest rates and the macroeconomy," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(4), pages 439-462, May.
  15. Ang, Andrew & Piazzesi, Monika, 2003. "A no-arbitrage vector autoregression of term structure dynamics with macroeconomic and latent variables," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 745-787, May.
  16. Argyropoulos Efthymios & Tzavalis Elias, 2015. "Term spread regressions of the rational expectations hypothesis of the term structure allowing for risk premium effects," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 19(1), pages 49-70, February.
  17. Dewachter, Hans & Lyrio, Marco, 2006. "Macro Factors and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(1), pages 119-140, February.
  18. Duan, Jin-Chuan & Simonato, Jean-Guy, 1999. "Estimating and Testing Exponential-Affine Term Structure Models by Kalman Filter," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 111-135, September.
  19. Jagannathan, Ravi & Kaplin, Andrew & Sun, Steve, 2003. "An evaluation of multi-factor CIR models using LIBOR, swap rates, and cap and swaption prices," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 116(1-2), pages 113-146.
  20. Richter, Martin & Sørensen, Carsten, 2002. "Stochastic Volatility and Seasonality in Commodity Futures and Options: The Case of Soybeans," Working Papers 2002-4, Copenhagen Business School, Department of Finance.
  21. Boero, G. & Torricelli, C., 1996. "A comparative evaluation of alternative models of the term structure of interest rates," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 205-223, August.
  22. Christensen, Bent Jesper & van der Wel, Michel, 2019. "An asset pricing approach to testing general term structure models," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(1), pages 165-191.
  23. David Bolder, 2001. "Affine Term-Structure Models: Theory and Implementation," Staff Working Papers 01-15, Bank of Canada.
  24. Peter Christoffersen & Christian Dorion & Kris Jacobs & Lotfi Karoui, 2014. "Nonlinear Kalman Filtering in Affine Term Structure Models," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 60(9), pages 2248-2268, September.
  25. Duarte, Jefferson., 2003. "Evaluating an Alternative Risk Preference in Affine Term Structure Models," Finance Lab Working Papers flwp_49, Finance Lab, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
  26. Gil-Bazo Javier & Rubio Gonzalo, 2004. "A Nonparametric Dimension Test of the Term Structure," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 8(3), pages 1-28, September.
  27. Mari, Carlo & Reno, Roberto, 2005. "Credit risk analysis of mortgage loans: An application to the Italian market," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 163(1), pages 83-93, May.
  28. Benth, Fred Espen & Koekebakker, Steen, 2008. "Stochastic modeling of financial electricity contracts," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 1116-1157, May.
  29. Christopher G. Lamoureux & H. Douglas Witte, 2002. "Empirical Analysis of the Yield Curve: The Information in the Data Viewed through the Window of Cox, Ingersoll, and Ross," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(3), pages 1479-1520, June.
  30. Frank Zhang, 2010. "An empirical analysis of alternative recovery risk models and implied recovery rates," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 101-124, July.
  31. Luca Benati, 2006. "Affine term structure models for the foreign exchange risk premium," Bank of England working papers 291, Bank of England.
  32. Gonzalo Cortazar & Eduardo S. Schwartz & Lorenzo F. Naranjo, 2007. "Term-structure estimation in markets with infrequent trading," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(4), pages 353-369.
  33. Qiang Dai & Kenneth Singleton, 2003. "Term Structure Dynamics in Theory and Reality," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(3), pages 631-678, July.
  34. Marco S. Matsumura, 2015. "Impact of Macro Shocks on Sovereign Default Probabilities," Discussion Papers 0173, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
  35. Driessen, Joost & Klaassen, Pieter & Melenberg, Bertrand, 2003. "The Performance of Multi-Factor Term Structure Models for Pricing and Hedging Caps and Swaptions," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 38(3), pages 635-672, September.
  36. Ram Bhar & Carl Chiarella & Thuy-Duong To, 2004. "Estimating the Volatility Structure of an Arbitrage-Free Interest Rate Model Via the Futures Markets," Finance 0409003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  37. Alain Monfort & Fulvio Pegoraro, 2006. "Multi-Lag Term Structure Models with Stochastic Risk Premia," Working Papers 2006-29, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
  38. Chris Strickland, 1996. "A comparison of diffusion models of the term structure," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(1), pages 103-123.
  39. Monica Gentile & Roberto Renò, 2005. "Specification Analysis of Diffusion Models for the Italian Short Rate," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 34(1), pages 51-83, February.
  40. Thuy-Duong To, 2004. "A Note on the Bias of using Futures Rates as a Proxy for the Instantaneous Forward Rate," Research Paper Series 149, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
  41. Korn, Olaf & Koziol, Christian, 2006. "Bond portfolio optimization: A risk-return approach," CFR Working Papers 06-03, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
  42. Elias, Nikolaos & Smyrnakis, Dimitris & Tzavalis, Elias, 2022. "Predicting future exchange rate changes based on interest rates and holding-period returns differentials net of the forward risk premium effects," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 694-715.
  43. Gibson, Rajna & Lhabitant, Francois-Serge & Talay, Denis, 2010. "Modeling the Term Structure of Interest Rates: A Review of the Literature," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 5(1–2), pages 1-156, December.
  44. Lin, Bing-Huei & Yeh, Shih-Kuo, 2001. "Estimation for factor models of term structure of interest rates with jumps: the case of the Taiwanese government bond market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 167-197, June.
  45. James Kung, 2008. "Dynamic strategies for fixed-income investment," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(10), pages 1341-1354.
  46. Robert J. Elliott & William C. Hunter & Barbara M. Jamieson, 2000. "Financial signal processing: a self calibrating model," Working Paper Series WP-00-21, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  47. Tao Zou & Song Xi Chen, 2017. "Enhancing Estimation for Interest Rate Diffusion Models With Bond Prices," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(3), pages 486-498, July.
  48. Singleton, Kenneth J., 2001. "Estimation of affine asset pricing models using the empirical characteristic function," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 102(1), pages 111-141, May.
  49. Wei, Bin & Yue, Vivian Z., 2020. "Liquidity backstops and dynamic debt runs," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
  50. Seungmoon Choi, 2011. "Closed-Form Likelihood Expansions for Multivariate Time-Inhomogeneous Diffusions," School of Economics and Public Policy Working Papers 2011-26, University of Adelaide, School of Economics and Public Policy.
  51. Nikolai Dokuchaev, 2015. "Optimal portfolio with unobservable market parameters and certainty equivalence principle," Papers 1502.02352, arXiv.org.
  52. Ghysels, E. & Ng, S., 1996. "A Semi-Parametric Factor Model for Interest Rates," Cahiers de recherche 9612, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  53. Jaime Casassus & Eduardo Walker, 2013. "Adjusted Money's Worth Ratios in Life Annuities," Documentos de Trabajo 434, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..
  54. Ait-Sahalia, Yacine, 1996. "Nonparametric Pricing of Interest Rate Derivative Securities," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(3), pages 527-560, May.
  55. Tianshun Yan & Yanyong Zhao & Wentao Wang, 2020. "Likelihood-based estimation of a semiparametric time-dependent jump diffusion model of the short-term interest rate," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 35(2), pages 539-557, June.
  56. D H Kim, 2005. "Nonlinearity in the Term Structure," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 51, Economics, The University of Manchester.
  57. Ilias Lekkos, 2003. "Cross‐sectional Restrictions on the Spot and Forward Term Structures of Interest Rates and Panel Unit Root Tests," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(5‐6), pages 799-828, June.
  58. Cheridito, Patrick & Filipovic, Damir & Kimmel, Robert L., 2007. "Market price of risk specifications for affine models: Theory and evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 123-170, January.
  59. Jin-Chuan Duan & Kris Jacobs, 2001. "Short and Long Memory in Equilibrium Interest Rate Dynamics," CIRANO Working Papers 2001s-22, CIRANO.
  60. Jun Yang, 2008. "Macroeconomic Determinants of the Term Structure of Corporate Spreads," Staff Working Papers 08-29, Bank of Canada.
  61. Pierluigi Balduzzi & Sanjiv Ranjan Das & Silverio Foresi, 1998. "The Central Tendency: A Second Factor In Bond Yields," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(1), pages 62-72, February.
  62. David K. Backus & Silverio Foresi & Chris Telmer, "undated". "Discrete time models of bond pricing," GSIA Working Papers 251, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
  63. Felipe Aldunate & Jaime Casassus, 2010. "Consumption and Hedging in Oil Importing Developing Countries," Documentos de Trabajo 376, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..
  64. Ravi Bansal & Hao Zhou, 2002. "Term Structure of Interest Rates with Regime Shifts," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 1997-2043, October.
  65. Brandt, Michael W. & Santa-Clara, Pedro, 2002. "Simulated likelihood estimation of diffusions with an application to exchange rate dynamics in incomplete markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 161-210, February.
  66. Iftekhar Hasan & Sudipto Sarkar, 2002. "Banks' option to lend, interest rate sensitivity, and credit availability," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 5(3), pages 213-250, October.
  67. Tunaru, Diana, 2017. "Gaussian estimation and forecasting of the U.K. yield curve with multi-factor continuous-time models," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 119-129.
  68. Qiang Dai & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2000. "Specification Analysis of Affine Term Structure Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(5), pages 1943-1978, October.
  69. Choi, Seungmoon, 2013. "Closed-form likelihood expansions for multivariate time-inhomogeneous diffusions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 174(2), pages 45-65.
  70. Hiona Balfoussia & Mike Wickens, 2007. "Macroeconomic Sources of Risk in the Term Structure," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(1), pages 205-236, February.
  71. Caldeira, João F. & Moura, Guilherme V. & Santos, André A.P., 2016. "Predicting the yield curve using forecast combinations," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 79-98.
  72. Ram Bhar & Carl Chiarella & Thuy Duong To, 2002. "A Maximum Likelihood Approach to Estimation of Heath-Jarrow-Morton Models," Research Paper Series 80, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
  73. Peimin Chen & Igor Kozhanov & Peng Liu & Chunchi Wu, 2021. "Commercial Mortgage‐Backed Security Pricing with Real Estate Liquidity Risk," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 49(S2), pages 490-525, September.
  74. Hao Zhou, 2003. "Itô Conditional Moment Generator and the Estimation of Short-Rate Processes," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 1(2), pages 250-271.
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  78. Eric Ghysels & Serena Ng, 1998. "A Semiparametric Factor Model Of Interest Rates And Tests Of The Affine Term Structure," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 535-548, November.
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  86. Qiang Dai & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2001. "Expectation Puzzles, Time-varying Risk Premia, and Dynamic Models of the Term Structure," NBER Working Papers 8167, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  91. Doshi, Hitesh & Jacobs, Kris & Liu, Rui, 2018. "Macroeconomic determinants of the term structure: Long-run and short-run dynamics," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 99-122.
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