IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/jof/jforec/v22y2003i8p553-568.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Evidence of long memory in short-term interest rates

Author

Listed:
  • Margaret R. Maier

    (Department of Trade and Industry, London, UK)

  • Nigel Meade

    (The Business School, Imperial College London, UK)

Abstract

The issues of non-stationarity and long memory of real interest rates are examined here. Autoregressive models allowing short-term mean reversion are compared with fractional integration models in terms of their ability to explain the behaviour of the data and to forecast out-of-sample. The data used are weekly observations of 3-month Eurodeposit rates for 10 countries, adjusted for inflation, for 14 years. Following Brenner, Harjes and Kroner, the volatility of these rates is shown to both exhibit GARCH effects and depend on the level of interest rates. Although relatively little support is found for the hypothesis of mean reversion, evidence of long memory in interest rate changes is found for seven countries. The out-of-sample forecasting performance for a year ahead of the fractional integrated models was significantly better than a no change. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Margaret R. Maier & Nigel Meade, 2003. "Evidence of long memory in short-term interest rates," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(8), pages 553-568.
    • Handle: RePEc:jof:jforec:v:22:y:2003:i:8:p:553-568
    DOI: 10.1002/for.873
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/for.873
    File Function: Link to full text; subscription required
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/for.873?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sowell, Fallaw, 1992. "Maximum likelihood estimation of stationary univariate fractionally integrated time series models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 165-188.
    2. John T. Barkoulas & Christopher F. Baum, 1997. "Fractional Differencing Modeling And Forecasting Of Eurocurrency Deposit Rates," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 20(3), pages 355-372, September.
    3. Hauser, Michael A & Kunst, Robert M, 1998. "Fractionally Integrated Models with ARCH Errors: With an Application to the Swiss One-Month Euromarket Interest Rate," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 95-113, January.
    4. Bollerslev, Tim & Ole Mikkelsen, Hans, 1996. "Modeling and pricing long memory in stock market volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 151-184, July.
    5. John C. Cox & Jonathan E. Ingersoll Jr. & Stephen A. Ross, 2005. "A Theory Of The Term Structure Of Interest Rates," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Sudipto Bhattacharya & George M Constantinides (ed.), Theory Of Valuation, chapter 5, pages 129-164, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    6. David Heath & Robert Jarrow & Andrew Morton, 2008. "Bond Pricing And The Term Structure Of Interest Rates: A New Methodology For Contingent Claims Valuation," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 13, pages 277-305, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    7. Brenner, Robin J. & Harjes, Richard H. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1996. "Another Look at Models of the Short-Term Interest Rate," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 31(1), pages 85-107, March.
    8. N. Gregory Mankiw & Jeffrey A. Miron, 1986. "The Changing Behavior of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 101(2), pages 211-228.
    9. Chan, K C, et al, 1992. "An Empirical Comparison of Alternative Models of the Short-Term Interest Rate," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(3), pages 1209-1227, July.
    10. Vasicek, Oldrich, 1977. "An equilibrium characterization of the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 177-188, November.
    11. Rose, Andrew Kenan, 1988. " Is the Real Interest Rate Stable?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(5), pages 1095-1112, December.
    12. Pearson, Neil D & Sun, Tong-Sheng, 1994. "Exploiting the Conditional Density in Estimating the Term Structure: An Application to the Cox, Ingersoll, and Ross Model," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(4), pages 1279-1304, September.
    13. Baillie, Richard T & Chung, Ching-Fan & Tieslau, Margie A, 1996. "Analysing Inflation by the Fractionally Integrated ARFIMA-GARCH Model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(1), pages 23-40, Jan.-Feb..
    14. Engle, Robert F & Lilien, David M & Robins, Russell P, 1987. "Estimating Time Varying Risk Premia in the Term Structure: The Arch-M Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 391-407, March.
    15. C. W. J. Granger & Roselyne Joyeux, 1980. "An Introduction To Long‐Memory Time Series Models And Fractional Differencing," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 1(1), pages 15-29, January.
    16. Shea, Gary S, 1991. "Uncertainty and Implied Variance Bounds in Long-Memory Models of the Interest Rate Term Structure," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 16(3), pages 287-312.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sanjay Rajagopal, 2012. "A Study of the Returns Behavior of Small Capitalization REITs," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 4(8), pages 457-466.
    2. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis Alberiko Gil-Alaña, 2011. "Interest rate dynamics in Kenya," NCID Working Papers 10/2011, Navarra Center for International Development, University of Navarra.
    3. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Carcel, Hector & Gil-Alana, Luis, 2017. "Central bank policy rates: Are they cointegrated?," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 116-123.
    4. Javier Haulde & Morten Ørregaard Nielsen, 2022. "Fractional integration and cointegration," CREATES Research Papers 2022-02, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    5. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana & OlaOluwa Simon Yaya, 2022. "Modelling Persistence and Non-Linearities in the US Treasury 10-Year Bond Yields," CESifo Working Paper Series 9554, CESifo.
    6. Benjamin M. Tabak, 2007. "Estimating the Fractional Order of Integration of Yields in the Brazilian Fixed Income Market," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 36(3), pages 231-246, November.
    7. Guglielmo Caporale & Luis Gil-Alana, 2016. "Persistence and cyclical dependence in the monthly euribor rate," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 40(1), pages 157-171, January.
    8. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Gil-Alaña, Luis, 2019. "Testing the Fisher hypothesis in the G-7 countries using I(d) techniques," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 140-150.
    9. Tak-Kuen Siu & Wai-Ki Ching & Eric Fung & Michael Ng, 2007. "Extracting Information from Spot Interest Rates and Credit Ratings using Double Higher-Order Hidden Markov Models," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 29(3), pages 425-425, May.
    10. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2017. "Persistence and cycles in the us federal funds rate," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 1-8.
    11. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana & Miguel Ángel Martin-Valmayor, 2022. "Non-linearities and persistence in US long-run interest rates," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(4), pages 366-370, February.
    12. Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Cunado, Juncal & Gupta, Rangan, 2017. "Evidence of persistence in U.S. short and long-term interest rates," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 775-789.
    13. Laurini, Márcio Poletti & Hotta, Luiz Koodi, 2013. "Indirect Inference in fractional short-term interest rate diffusions," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 109-126.
    14. Holmes, Mark J. & Dutu, Richard & Cui, Xiaoman, 2009. "Real interest rates, inflation and the open economy: A regime-switching perspective on Australia and New Zealand," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 351-360, March.
    15. John Galbraith & Greg Tkacz, 2007. "How Far Can Forecasting Models Forecast? Forecast Content Horizons for Some Important Macroeconomic Variables," Staff Working Papers 07-1, Bank of Canada.
    16. Cheng-Feng Lee & Ching-Chuan Tsong, 2012. "A revisit on real interest rate parity hypothesis -- simulation evidence from efficient unit root tests," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(24), pages 3089-3099, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jin-Chuan Duan & Kris Jacobs, 2001. "Short and Long Memory in Equilibrium Interest Rate Dynamics," CIRANO Working Papers 2001s-22, CIRANO.
    2. Duan, Jin-Chuan & Jacobs, Kris, 2008. "Is long memory necessary? An empirical investigation of nonnegative interest rate processes," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 567-581, June.
    3. Lim, Terence & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C. & Scholes, Myron S., 2006. "The Derivatives Sourcebook," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(5–6), pages 365-572, April.
    4. Olan T. Henry & Sandy Suardi, 2004. "Testing for a Level Effect in Short-Term Interest Rates," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 924, The University of Melbourne.
    5. Pagan, Adrian, 1996. "The econometrics of financial markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 15-102, May.
    6. Cortazar, Gonzalo & Schwartz, Eduardo S. & Naranjo, Lorezo, 2003. "Term Structure Estimation in Low-Frequency Transaction Markets: A Kalman Filter Approach with Incomplete Panel-Data," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt56h775cz, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
    7. Staikouras, Sotiris K., 2006. "Testing the stabilization hypothesis in the UK short-term interest rates: Evidence from a GARCH-X model," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 169-189, May.
    8. Tunaru, Diana, 2017. "Gaussian estimation and forecasting of the U.K. yield curve with multi-factor continuous-time models," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 119-129.
    9. Collin-Dufresne, Pierre & Goldstein, Robert S. & Jones, Christopher S., 2009. "Can interest rate volatility be extracted from the cross section of bond yields?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 47-66, October.
    10. Mahdavi, Mahnaz, 2008. "A comparison of international short-term rates under no arbitrage condition," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 303-318.
    11. Suresh M. Sundaresan, 2000. "Continuous‐Time Methods in Finance: A Review and an Assessment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1569-1622, August.
    12. Yvon Fauvel & Alain Paquet & Christian Zimmermann, 1999. "A Survey on Interest Rate Forecasting," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 87, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal.
    13. Boero, G. & Torricelli, C., 1996. "A comparative evaluation of alternative models of the term structure of interest rates," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 205-223, August.
    14. Gil-Bazo Javier & Rubio Gonzalo, 2004. "A Nonparametric Dimension Test of the Term Structure," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 8(3), pages 1-28, September.
    15. repec:wyi:journl:002108 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Gonzalo Cortazar & Eduardo S. Schwartz & Lorenzo F. Naranjo, 2007. "Term-structure estimation in markets with infrequent trading," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(4), pages 353-369.
    17. repec:wyi:journl:002109 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Bali, Turan G., 2003. "Modeling the stochastic behavior of short-term interest rates: Pricing implications for discount bonds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 201-228, February.
    19. T. J. Brailsford & K. Maheswaran, 1998. "The Dynamics of the Australian Short†Term Interest Rate," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 23(2), pages 213-234, December.
    20. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Carcel, Hector & Gil-Alana, Luis, 2017. "Central bank policy rates: Are they cointegrated?," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 116-123.
    21. D H Kim, 2004. "Nonlinearity in the Term Structure," Economics Discussion Paper Series 0401, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    22. Javier Haulde & Morten Ørregaard Nielsen, 2022. "Fractional integration and cointegration," CREATES Research Papers 2022-02, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jof:jforec:v:22:y:2003:i:8:p:553-568. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing or Christopher F. Baum (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/jhome/2966 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.