Estimating the Volatility Structure of an Arbitrage-Free Interest Rate Model Via the Futures Markets
AbstractThis paper considers a class of Heath-Jarrow-Morton (1992) term structure models, characterized by time deterministic volatilities for the instantaneous forward rate. The bias that arises from using observed futures yields as a proxy for the unobserved instantaneous forward rate is analyzed. The fact that futures contracts can be viewed as derivative instruments on the forward rate is used to determine the likelihood function for futures prices. The likelihood transformation method of Duan (1994) is then used to obtain the full information maximum likelihood estimator for the observable futures prices. The approach is applied to estimate the volatility structure implied by futures contracts traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by EconWPA in its series Finance with number 0409003.
Length: 39 pages
Date of creation: 01 Sep 2004
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Term structure; Heath-Jarrow-Morton; Yield curve; Forward rate volatility function; Estimation bias; FIML; Likelihood transformation; Futures contracts;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
- E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
- G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2004-09-05 (All new papers)
- NEP-CFN-2004-09-05 (Corporate Finance)
- NEP-ECM-2004-09-05 (Econometrics)
- NEP-ETS-2004-09-05 (Econometric Time Series)
- NEP-FIN-2004-09-05 (Finance)
- NEP-FMK-2004-09-05 (Financial Markets)
- NEP-RMG-2004-09-05 (Risk Management)
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