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The Farm, the City and the Emergence of Social Security

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Author Info
Caucutt, Elizabeth
Cooley, Thomas F
Guner, Nezih

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Abstract

During the period from 1880 to 1950 publicly managed retirement security programs became an important part of the social fabric in most advanced economies. In this paper we study the social, demographic and economic origins of social security. We describe a model economy in which demographics, technology, and social security are linked together. We study an economy with two locations (sectors), the farm (agricultural) and the city (industrial). The decision to migrate from rural to urban locations is endogenous and linked to productivity differences between the two locations and survival probabilities. Furthermore, the level of social security is determined by majority voting. We show that a calibrated version of this economy is consistent with the historical transformation in the United States. Initially a majority of voters live on the farm and do not want to implement social security. Once a majority of the voters move to the city, the median voter prefers a positive social security tax, and social security emerges.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 6131.

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Date of creation: Feb 2007
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:6131

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Related research
Keywords: migration political economy social security

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Models of Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
H3 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents
H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Jeremy Greenwood & Ananth Seshadri, 2001. "The U.S. demographic transition," Working Paper 0118, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Thomas F. Cooley & Jorge Soares, 1999. "A Positive Theory of Social Security Based on Reputation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(1), pages 135-160, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Soltow, Lee, 1982. "Male Inheritance Expectations in the United States in 1870," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 64(2), pages 252-60, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Stephen L. Parente & Edward C. Prescott, 2004. "A unified theory of the evolution of international income levels," Staff Report 333, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Per Krusell & Jose-Victor Rios-Rull, 1999. "On the Size of U.S. Government: Political Economy in the Neoclassical Growth Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(5), pages 1156-1181, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Vincenzo Galasso, 1999. "The US Social Security System: What Does Political Sustainability Imply?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 2(3), pages 698-730, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Juan C. Conesa & Dirk Krueger, 1999. "Social Security Reform with Heterogeneous Agents," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 2(4), pages 757-795, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Paul Gomme & Peter Rupert, 2005. "Theory, measurement, and calibration of macroeconomic models," Working Paper 0505, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
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  9. John Hassler & José V. Rodríguez Mora & Kjetil Storesletten & Fabrizio Zilibotti, 2005. "A Positive Theory Of Geographic Mobility And Social Insurance," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 46(1), pages 263-303, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Gary D. Hansen & Edward C. Prescott, 2002. "Malthus to Solow," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(4), pages 1205-1217, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. repec:att:wimass:192022 is not listed on IDEAS
  12. Karen Kopecky, 2005. "The Trend in Retirement," Economie d'Avant Garde Research Reports 12, Economie d'Avant Garde. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Michele Boldrin & Aldo Rustichini, 2000. "Political Equilibria with Social Security," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 3(1), pages 41-78, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Cooley, Thomas F. & Soares, Jorge, 1996. "Will social security survive the baby boom?," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45, pages 89-121, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Gonzales-Eiras, Martín & Niepelt, Dirk, 2004. "Sustaining Social Security," Seminar Papers 731, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies. [Downloadable!]
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  16. John Hassler et al., 2003. "The Survival of the Welfare State," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 87-112, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Jeremy Greenwood & Gokce Uysal, 2005. "New Goods and the Transition to a New Economy," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 99-134, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Browning, Edgar K, 1975. "Why the Social Insurance Budget Is Too Large in a Democracy," Economic Inquiry, Oxford University Press, vol. 13(3), pages 373-88, September.
  19. Guillaume Vandenbroucke, 2003. "The U.S. Westward Expansion," Economie d'Avant Garde Research Reports 4, Economie d'Avant Garde, revised Apr 2004. [Downloadable!]
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  20. Douglas Gollin & Stephen Parente & Richard Rogerson, 2002. "The Role of Agriculture in Development," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 160-164, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Imrohoroglu, Ayse & Imrohoroglu, Selahattin & Joines, Douglas H, 1995. "A Life Cycle Analysis of Social Security," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 83-114, June.
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