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The US Social Security System: What Does Political Sustainability Imply?

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Author Info
Vincenzo Galasso (Departamento de Economia, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid and CEPR)

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Abstract

This paper examines how political constraints can shape the social security system under different demographics. A steady state mapping between relevant economic and demographic variables and the social security tax rate resulting from a majority voting is provided. I calibrate an OLG model to the US economy. Calculations using Census population and survival probabilities projections, and 1961-96 labor productivity growth deliver a social security tax rate of 13.3% (currently 11.2%), and a 54% replacement ratio (51.7%). This result reflects the median voter's aging, from 44 to 46 years, which dominates the decrease in the dependency ratio, from 5.45 to 4.72. (Copyright: Elsevier)

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File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1006/redy.1998.0049
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File Function: Full text
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics in its journal Review of Economic Dynamics.

Volume (Year): 2 (1999)
Issue (Month): 3 (July)
Pages: 698-730
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Handle: RePEc:red:issued:v:2:y:1999:i:3:p:698-730

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Related research
Keywords: unfunded social security system; political equilibria; labor productivity;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation
D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Models of Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Alan J. Auerbach & Jagadeesh Gokhale & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 1991. "Generational Accounts - A Meaningful Alternative to Deficit Accounting," NBER Working Papers 3589, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Guido Tabellini, 1990. "A Positive Theory of Social Security," NBER Working Papers 3272, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Galasso, Vincenzo, 2000. "The US Social Security: A Financial Appraisal For The Median Voter," CEPR Discussion Papers 2456, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Thomas F. Cooley & Jorge Soares, 1999. "A Positive Theory of Social Security Based on Reputation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(1), pages 135-160, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Esteban Joan Maria & Sakovics Jozsef, 1993. "Intertemporal Transfer Institutions," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 189-205, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Vincenzo Galasso & Paola Profeta, 2004. "Lessons For An Aging Society: The Political Sustainability Of Social Security Systems," Working Papers, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College 2004-07, Center for Retirement Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Elizabeth M. Caucutt & Thomas F. Cooley & Nezih Guner, 2007. "The Farm, the City, and the Emergence of Social Security," NBER Working Papers 12854, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Conde-Ruiz, José Ignacio & Galasso, Vincenzo, 2003. "The Macroeconomics of Early Retirement," CEPR Discussion Papers 3896, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. J. Ignacio Conde-Ruiz & Vincenzo Galasso, . "Positive Arithmetic of the Welfare State," Working Papers 2003-04, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
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  5. J. Ignacio Conde-Ruiz & Paola Profeta, 2007. "The Redistributive Design of Social Security Systems," Working Papers 2007-07, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. D'Amato, Marcello & Galasso, Vincenzo, 2002. "Assessing the Political Sustainability of Parametric Social Security Reforms: The Case of Italy," CEPR Discussion Papers 3439, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Marcello D'Amato & Vincenzo Galasso, 2002. "E' la Riforma Dini Politicamente Sostenibile?," CELPE Discussion Papers 64, CELPE (Centre of Labour Economics and Economic Policy), University of Salerno, Italy. [Downloadable!]
  8. J. Ignacio Conde-Ruiz & Vincenzo Galasso, . "Early retirement," Working Papers 2003-03, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Paola Profeta, 2002. "Aging and Retirement: Evidence Across Countries," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer, vol. 9(6), pages 651-672, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. D'Amato, Marcello & Galasso, Vincenzo, 2002. "Aggregate Risk, Political Constraints and Social Security Design," CEPR Discussion Papers 3330, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Silke Uebelmesser & Hans-Werner Sinn, 2001. "When will the Germans Get Trapped in their Pension System?," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Lorenzo Forni, 2005. "Social Security as Markov Equilibrium in OLG Models," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(1), pages 178-194, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Michele Boldrin & Aldo Rustichini, 2000. "Political Equilibria with Social Security," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 3(1), pages 41-78, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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