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Wann kippt Deutschland um?

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Author Info

  • Hans-Werner Sinn
  • Silke Übelmesser

Abstract

Die Deutschen werden immer älter und haben immer weniger Kinder. Die Verschiebung der Altersverteilung macht es immer schwieriger, die Rentenansprüche zu befriedigen, und sie verringert das Stimmgewicht der Jungen im demokratischen Entscheidungsprozess. Der Artikel zeigt, dass derzeit noch eine strategische Mehrheit für Rentenreformen vorhanden ist, die eine Entlastung der Jungen verspricht. Diese Mehrheit wird aber aufgrund der demographischen Entwicklung bis etwa zum Jahr 2023 verschwinden. Das Stimmenverhältnis wird dann umkippen, und Deutschland wird sich im Regime einer Gerontokratie mit problematischen Auswirkungen für seine Reformfähigkeit befinden. Notwendige Reformen müssen jetzt, während die strategischen Mehrheiten noch vorhanden sind, in Angriff genommen werden.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich in its journal ifo Schnelldienst.

Volume (Year): 53 (2000)
Issue (Month): 28-29 (November)
Pages: 20-25

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Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:53:y:2000:i:28-29:p:20-25

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Related research

Keywords: Kapitaldeckungsverfahren; Deutschland; Alte Menschen; Altersstruktur;

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References

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  1. Vincenzo Galasso, 1999. "The US Social Security System: What Does Political Sustainability Imply?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 2(3), pages 698-730, July.
  2. Georg Hirte, 1999. "Raising the Retirement Age--Why Should Anybody Lose?," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 219(3+4), pages 393-408, September.
  3. Breyer, Friedrich, 1994. "The political economy of intergenerational redistribution," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 61-84, May.
  4. Hans-Werner Sinn & Martin Werding, 2000. "Rentenniveausenkung und Teilkapitaldeckung - ifo Empfehlungen zur Konsolidierung des Umlageverfahrens," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 53(18), pages 12-25, 06.
  5. Browning, Edgar K, 1975. "Why the Social Insurance Budget Is Too Large in a Democracy," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 13(3), pages 373-88, September.
  6. Sinn, Hans-Werner, 1999. "Gesetzliche Rentenversicherung: Prognosen im Vergleich," Munich Reprints in Economics 19871, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
  7. Marcel Thum & Jakob von Weisäcker, 2000. "Implizite Einkommensteuer als Messlatte für die aktuellen Rentenreformvorschläge," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 1(4), pages 453-468, November.
  8. Butler, Monika, 2000. "The political feasibility of pension reform options: the case of Switzerland," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(3), pages 389-416, March.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Buttler, Günter & Klein, Ingo, 2000. "Reform der Gesetzlichen Rentenversicherung durch die Einführung einer Zusatzrente auf Kapitalbasis: Ergebnisse von Modellrechnungen bis zum Jahr 2045," Discussion Papers 35/2000, Friedrich-Alexander-University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Chair of Statistics and Econometrics.
  2. Silke Uebelmesser & Hans-Werner Sinn, 2001. "When will the Germans Get Trapped in their Pension System?," CESifo Working Paper Series 561, CESifo Group Munich.

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