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Estimated Life Tables for the United States, 1850-1900

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  • Michael R. Haines

Abstract

This paper presents three sets of estimated life tables by sex for the total and white populations of the United States for the second half of the nineteenth century. The first set uses the Brass [1975] two parameter logit model with the 1900/02 Death Registration Area life tables as the standards. Available empirical American life tables for the period 1830-1911 are used to establish the relationship between the level and structure of mortality. Data on deaths for the ages 5-19 in the year prior to the census (from the decennial federal censuses of 1850-1900) are actually used to obtain the national tables. The second set of life tables also uses the census mortality data for the ages 5-19 but fits Coale and Demeny [1966] West Model life tables. Both these sets of life tables were derived following procedures in Haines [1979]. The third set of life tables was estimated from the public use micro-sample of the 1900 U.S. census from data on the number of children ever born, the number of children surviving, and the age structure of surviving children to women aged 14-34. Given the lack of national life tables for the United States prior to the early twentieth century, it is hoped that these tables will be of value in research on mortality and on issues for which mortality and survival probabilities by age, sex, and race are used. The overall results confirm that the sustained modern mortality transition in the United States did not begin until approximately 1880. Prior to that time, it appears that mortality was not under control.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael R. Haines, 1994. "Estimated Life Tables for the United States, 1850-1900," NBER Historical Working Papers 0059, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberhi:0059
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    1. Samuel H. Preston & Michael R. Haines, 1991. "Fatal Years: Child Mortality in Late Nineteenth-Century America," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number pres91-1, May.
    2. Robert W. Fogel, 1986. "Nutrition and the Decline in Mortality since 1700: Some Preliminary Findings," NBER Chapters, in: Long-Term Factors in American Economic Growth, pages 439-556, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Vinovskis, Maris A., 1972. "Mortality Rates and Trends in Massachusetts Before 1860," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 32(1), pages 184-213, March.
    4. Michael Haines, 1979. "The use of model life tables to estimate mortality for the United States in the late nineteenth century," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 16(2), pages 289-312, May.
    5. Gretchen Condran, 1984. "Evaluation of estimates of underenumeration in the census and the age pattern of mortality, philadelphia, 1880," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 21(1), pages 53-69, February.
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    2. Elizabeth Caucutt & Thomas Cooley & Nezih Guner, 2013. "The farm, the city, and the emergence of social security," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 1-32, March.
    3. Dora Costa & Richard H. Steckel, 1997. "Long-Term Trends in Health, Welfare, and Economic Growth in the United States," NBER Chapters, in: Health and Welfare during Industrialization, pages 47-90, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Komlos, John, 2012. "A Three-Decade “Kuhnian” History of the Antebellum Puzzle: Explaining the shrinking of the US population at the onset of modern economic growth," Discussion Papers in Economics 12758, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    5. Emily Nix & Nancy Qian, 2015. "The Fluidity of Race: “Passing” in the United States, 1880-1940," NBER Working Papers 20828, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Larry E. Jones & Alice Schoonbroodt, 2010. "Complements Versus Substitutes And Trends In Fertility Choice In Dynastic Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 51(3), pages 671-699, August.
    7. Karen A. Kopecky, 2011. "The Trend In Retirement," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 52(2), pages 287-316, May.
    8. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & David Weil, 2010. "Mortality change, the uncertainty effect, and retirement," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 65-91, March.
    9. Michael R. Haines & J. David Hacker, 2006. "The Puzzle of the Antebellum Fertility Decline in the United States: New Evidence and Reconsideration," NBER Working Papers 12571, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Nicholas Crafts, 2016. "The Rise and Fall of American Growth: Exploring the Numbers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(5), pages 57-60, May.
    11. Leandro Prados de la Escosura, 2015. "World Human Development: 1870–2007," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 61(2), pages 220-247, June.
    12. Joseph P. Ferrie, 2003. "The Rich and the Dead. Socioeconomic Status and Mortality in the United States, 1850-1860," NBER Chapters, in: Health and Labor Force Participation over the Life Cycle: Evidence from the Past, pages 11-50, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Richard H. Steckel & Roderick Floud, 1997. "Conclusions," NBER Chapters, in: Health and Welfare during Industrialization, pages 423-450, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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