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Understanding the subprime mortgage crisis

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  • Yuliya Demyanyk
  • Otto Van Hemert
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    Abstract

    Using loan-level data, we analyze the quality of subprime mortgage loans by adjusting their performance for differences in borrower characteristics, loan characteristics, and macroeconomic conditions. We find that the quality of loans deteriorated for six consecutive years before the crisis and that securitizers were, to some extent, aware of it. We provide evidence that the rise and fall of the subprime mortgage market follows a classic lending boom-bust scenario, in which unsustainable growth leads to the collapse of the market. Problems could have been detected long before the crisis, but they were masked by high house price appreciation between 2003 and 2005.

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    File URL: http://www.frbsf.org/economics/conferences/0901/Demyanyk-VanHemert.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in its journal Proceedings.

    Volume (Year): (2009)
    Issue (Month): Jan ()
    Pages:

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    Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfpr:y:2009:i:jan:x:11

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    References

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    Cited by:
    1. Ambrose, Brent W. & Diop, Moussa, 2014. "Spillover effects of subprime mortgage originations: The effects of single-family mortgage credit expansion on the multifamily rental market," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 114-135.
    2. Thomas Hemmelgarn & Gaetan Nicodeme, 2010. "The 2008 Financial Crisis and Taxation Policy," Taxation Papers 20, Directorate General Taxation and Customs Union, European Commission.
    3. Fligstein, Neil & Goldstein, Adam, 2011. "Catalyst of Disaster: Subprime Mortgage Securitization and the Roots of the Great Recession," Institute for Research on Labor and Employment, Working Paper Series qt83x2h03n, Institute of Industrial Relations, UC Berkeley.
    4. Elsas, Ralf & Sabine, Mielert, 2009. "Do S&P's Corporate Ratings Reflect Credit Shocks?," Discussion Papers in Business Administration 10979, University of Munich, Munich School of Management.
    5. Kim, Bong Han & Min, Hong-Ghi, 2011. "Household lending, interest rates and housing price bubbles in Korea: Regime switching model and Kalman filter approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 1415-1423, May.
    6. Daniel Rösch & Harald Scheule, 2011. "Securitization rating performance and agency incentives," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Portfolio and risk management for central banks and sovereign wealth funds, volume 58, pages 287-314 Bank for International Settlements.
    7. William Lang & Julapa Jagtiani, 2010. "The Mortgage and Financial Crises: The Role of Credit Risk Management and Corporate Governance," Atlantic Economic Journal, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 38(2), pages 123-144, June.
    8. Thomas Hemmelgarn & Gaetan Nicodeme & Ernesto Zangari, 2011. "The Role of Housing Tax Provisions in the 2008 Financial Crisis," Taxation Papers 27, Directorate General Taxation and Customs Union, European Commission.
    9. Vikrant Vig & Amit Seru & Tomasz Piskorski, 2009. "Securitization and Distressed Loan Renegotiation: Evidence from the Subprime Mortgage Crisis," 2009 Meeting Papers 1169, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    10. Bertaut, Carol & DeMarco, Laurie Pounder & Kamin, Steven & Tryon, Ralph, 2012. "ABS inflows to the United States and the global financial crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 219-234.
    11. Calem, Paul & Henderson, Christopher & Liles, Jonathan, 2011. ""Cherry picking" in subprime mortgage securitizations: Which subprime mortgage loans were sold by depository institutions prior to the crisis of 2007?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 120-140, June.
    12. Mitropoulos, Atanasios & Zaidi, Rida, 2009. "Relative indicators of default risk among UK residential mortgages," MPRA Paper 19619, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Chang, Kuang Liang & Chen, Nan Kuang & Leung, Charles Ka Yui, 2011. "In the Shadow of the United States: The International Transmission Effect of Asset Returns," MPRA Paper 32776, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Lang, William W. & Jagtiani, Julapa, 2010. "The Mortgage Financial Crises: The Role of Credit Risk Management and Corporate Governance," Working Papers 10-12, University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School, Weiss Center.
    15. Michele Fratianni & Francesco Marchionne, 2010. "The Banking Bailout of the Subprime Crisis: Size and Effects," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 63(254), pages 187-233.
    16. Frankel, David M. & Jin, Yu, 2011. "Securitization and Lending Competition," Staff General Research Papers 34868, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
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