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Credit Risk Modeling Of Residential Mortgage Lending In Russia

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  • Agatha M. Poroshina

    ()
    (National Research University Higher School of Economics)

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    Abstract

    This paper analyzes the problems of credit risk modeling of residential mortgage lending in Russia. Using unique mortgage loan and macro data from a regional branch of the Agency of Home Mortgage Lending (2008-2012), we find that borrower and mortgage loan characteristics affect the loan performance and play an important role in predicting default as well as a macroeconomic situation. On the residential mortgage market, borrowers with undeclared income have the lowest probability of default, mainly explained by the difference in declared and real income. Obtained results are robust under parametric and semiparametric specifications with correction for selectivity bias.

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    File URL: http://www.hse.ru/data/2014/04/22/1320077335/30FE2014.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by National Research University Higher School of Economics in its series HSE Working papers with number WP BRP 30/FE/2014.

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    Length: 38 pages
    Date of creation: 2014
    Date of revision:
    Publication status: Published in WP BRP Series: Financial Economics / FE, April 2014, pages - 38
    Handle: RePEc:hig:wpaper:30/fe/2014

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    Keywords: credit risk; default; mortgage lending; sample selection; Russia;

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    References

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    1. Christopher Mayer & Karen Pence & Shane M. Sherlund, 2009. "The Rise in Mortgage Defaults," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 23(1), pages 27-50, Winter.
    2. Maxam, Clark L & LaCour-Little, Michael, 2001. "Applied Nonparametric Regression Techniques: Estimating Prepayments on Fixed-Rate Mortgage-Backed Securities," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 139-60, September.
    3. Heckman, James, 2013. "Sample selection bias as a specification error," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 31(3), pages 129-137.
    4. Benjamin J. Keys & Tanmoy Mukherjee & Amit Seru & Vikrant Vig, 2010. "Did Securitization Lead to Lax Screening? Evidence from Subprime Loans," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 125(1), pages 307-362, February.
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    6. Luigi Guiso & Paola Sapienza & Luigi Zingales, 2010. "The Determinants of Attitudes towards Strategic Default on Mortgages," Economics Working Papers ECO2010/31, European University Institute.
    7. Francis Vella, 1998. "Estimating Models with Sample Selection Bias: A Survey," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 33(1), pages 127-169.
    8. Campbell, John Y. & Cocco, João F., 2014. "A model of mortgage default," CFS Working Paper Series 452, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    9. Robert F. Phillips & Anthony M.J. Yezer, 1996. "Self-Selection and Tests for Bias and Risk in Mortgage Lending: Can You Price the Mortgage If You Don't Know the Process?," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 11(1), pages 87-102.
    10. James J. Heckman, 1976. "The Common Structure of Statistical Models of Truncation, Sample Selection and Limited Dependent Variables and a Simple Estimator for Such Models," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 5, number 4, pages 475-492 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Goldberg, Gerson M. & Harding, John P., 2003. "Investment characteristics of low- and moderate-income mortgage loans," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 151-180, September.
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    16. Yuliya Demyanyk & Otto Van Hemert, 2011. "Understanding the Subprime Mortgage Crisis," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(6), pages 1848-1880.
    17. Yongheng Deng & Andrey D. Pavlov & Lihong Yang, 2005. "Spatial Heterogeneity in Mortgage Terminations by Refinance, Sale and Default," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 33(4), pages 739-764, December.
    18. Michael LaCour-Little & Michael Marschoun & Clark L. Maxam, 2002. "Improving Parametric Mortgage Prepayment Models with Non-parametric Kernel Regression," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 24(3), pages 299-328.
    19. John M. Clapp & Yongheng Deng & Xudong An, 2006. "Unobserved Heterogeneity in Models of Competing Mortgage Termination Risks," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 34(2), pages 243-273, 06.
    20. Archer, Wayne R. & Ling, David C. & McGill, Gary A., 1997. "Demographic versus Option-Driven Mortgage Terminations," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 137-163, June.
    21. Orazio Attanasio & Pinelopi K. Goldberg & Ekaterini Kyriazidou, 2000. "Credit Constraints in the Market for Consumer Durables: Evidence from Micro Data on Car Loans," NBER Working Papers 7694, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Pavlov, Andrey D, 2001. "Competing Risks of Mortgage Termination: Who Refinances, Who Moves, and Who Defaults?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 185-211, September.
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