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A Dynamic Analysis of Fixed- and Adjustable-Rate Mortgage Terminations

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  • Calhoun, Charles A
  • Deng, Yongheng
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    Abstract

    This paper provides a side-by-side comparison of loan-level statistical models for fixed- and adjustable-rate mortgages. Multinomial logit models for quarterly conditional probabilities of default and prepayment are estimated. We find that the estimated impacts of embedded option values for prepayment and default are generally quite similar across both FRM and ARM loans, providing additional empirical support for the basic predictions of the options theory. We also find that differences in estimates of conditional probabilities of prepayment and default associated with mortgage age, origination period, original LTV, and relative loan size, indicate the continued significance of these other economic and demographic factors for empirical models of mortgage terminations. Copyright 2002 by Kluwer Academic Publishers

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Springer in its journal Journal of Real Estate Finance & Economics.

    Volume (Year): 24 (2002)
    Issue (Month): 1-2 (Jan.-March)
    Pages: 9-33

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    Handle: RePEc:kap:jrefec:v:24:y:2002:i:1-2:p:9-33

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    Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=102945

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    Cited by:
    1. deRitis, Cristian & Kuo, Chionglong & Liang, Yongping, 2010. "Payment shock and mortgage performance," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 295-314, December.
    2. Daglish, Toby, 2009. "What motivates a subprime borrower to default?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 681-693, April.
    3. Anthony Pennington-Cross & Giang Ho, 2010. "The Termination of Subprime Hybrid and Fixed-Rate Mortgages," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 38(3), pages 399-426.
    4. Yuliya Demyanyk & Iftekhar Hasan, 2009. "Financial crises and bank failures: a review of prediction methods," Working Paper 0904, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    5. Xudong An & John Clapp & Yongheng Deng, 2010. "Omitted Mobility Characteristics and Property Market Dynamics: Application to Mortgage Termination," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 41(3), pages 245-271, October.
    6. Calem, P. & Cannon, M. & Nakamura, L.I., 2011. "Credit Cycle and Adverse Selection Effects in Consumer Credit Markets – Evidence from the HELOC Market," Discussion Paper 2011-086, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    7. Tyler Yang & Che-Chun Lin & Man Cho, 2011. "Collateral Risk in Residential Mortgage Defaults," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 42(2), pages 115-142, February.
    8. Lin, Che-Chun & Yang, Tyler T., 2005. "Curtailment as a mortgage performance indicator," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 294-314, September.
    9. Yongheng Deng & Della Zheng & Changfeng Ling, 2005. "An Early Assessment of Residential Mortgage Performance in China," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 117-136, September.

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