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Mortgage Termination: An Empirical Hazard Model with a Stochastic Term Structure

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Author Info
Deng, Yongheng
Abstract

Pricing for mortgage and mortgage-backed securities is complicated due to the stochastic and interdependent nature of prepayment and default risks. This paper presents a unified economic model of the contingent claims and competing risks of mortgage termination by prepayment and default. I adopt a proportional hazard framework to analyze these competing and interdependent risks in a model with time-varying covariates. The paper incorporates a stochastic interest rate model into the hazard function for prepayment. The empirical results reported in the paper provide new evidence about the ruthlessness of default and prepayment behavior and the sensitivity of these decisions to demographic as well as financial phenomena. The results also illustrate that evaluating the interest rate contingent claims with a stochastic term structure has effects on predicting not only the mortgage prepayment behavior but also the mortgage default behavior. Copyright 1997 by Kluwer Academic Publishers

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Springer in its journal Journal of Real Estate Finance & Economics.

Volume (Year): 14 (1997)
Issue (Month): 3 (May)
Pages: 309-31
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Handle: RePEc:kap:jrefec:v:14:y:1997:i:3:p:309-31

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  1. Anthony Pennington-Cross, 2005. "Aggregation bias and the repeat sales price index," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Real estate indicators and financial stability, volume 21, pages 323-335 Bank for International Settlements. [Downloadable!]
  2. Hartarska, Valentina & Gonzalez-Vega, Claudio, 2001. "Credit Counseling And Mortgage Loan Default By Rural And Urban Low Income Households," 2001 Annual meeting, August 5-8, Chicago, IL 20740, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association). [Downloadable!]
  3. Hartarska, Valentina & Gonzalez-Vega, Claudio, 2002. "A Comparison Of Option-Theoretic And Choice-Theoretic Approaches To Evaluating Alternative Financial Technologies For Mortgage Loans To Low-Income Households," 2002 Annual meeting, July 28-31, Long Beach, CA 19645, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association). [Downloadable!]
  4. Michael LaCour-Little & Michael Marschoun & Clark L. Maxam, 2002. "Improving Parametric Mortgage Prepayment Models with Non-parametric Kernel Regression," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 24(3), pages 299-328. [Downloadable!]
  5. Danny Ben-Shahar, 2006. "Screening Mortgage Default Risk: A Unified Theoretical Framework," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 28(3), pages 215-240. [Downloadable!]
  6. David M. Harrison & Thomas G. Noordewier & K. Ramagopal, 2002. "Mortgage Terminations: The Role of Conditional Volatility," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 23(1/2), pages 89-110. [Downloadable!]
  7. Claudio Gonzalez-Vega & Valentina Hartarska, 2005. "Credit counseling and mortgage termination by low-income households," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Apr. [Downloadable!]
  8. David Feldman & Shulamith Gross, 2005. "Mortgage Default: Classification Trees Analysis," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 30(4), pages 369-396, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Dennis Glennon & Peter Nigro, 2005. "An Analysis of SBA Loan Defaults by Maturity Structure," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 28(1), pages 77-111, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Yongheng Deng & Della Zheng & Changfeng Ling, 2005. "An Early Assessment of Residential Mortgage Performance in China," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 117-136, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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